531
FXUS63 KBIS 252210
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
410 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow will gradually diminish over south central North Dakota
  and the James River Valley this evening. Gusty north-northwest
  winds will continue to cause areas of blowing and drifting
  snow through the evening.

- There are medium chances for light accumulating snowfall
  Friday and Saturday across parts of the Northern Plains, which
  may impact travel.

- Well below normal temperatures are favored after Thanksgiving
  and into early next week. Wind chill temperatures as low as 20
  below zero will be possible Sunday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 348 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Canceled the Winter Weather Advisory for the northern tier of
counties now that the snow has fully left the area. Blowing snow
is not a major concern with how wet it has been.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Currently the upper level low is maturing and deepening over
northeastern South Dakota. There is an obvious dry slot
wrapping in over southwest Minnesota, with a warm front moving
through southern Minnesota. The surface low is almost in the
same spot, so the low pressure system should be stacked at this
point and continue to create high snowfall rates and amounts.

Here in western and central North Dakota, the snow has ended
across the west and north central. Fog has now formed in the
west and north as the wet snow starts to evaporate. In the
south central a band of snow has formed in the diffluent flow
as the low pulls away. It is currently moving east through
Bismarck/Mandan. We had to update the NBM forecast to account
for this since it had no snow there anymore. Snow is also
starting to let up in the southeast. We have not received any
recent reports, but it looks like the upgrade to a warning has
worked out. Overall winds underperformed since the surface low
was further south into South Dakota than forecasted. Still,
blowing snow is possible through this evening, especially in the
southeast. High pressure has formed in Montana under northwest
flow and will push into the state overnight. With this,
overnight lows will be in the single digits to teens.

The rest of this week will be much colder, about 10 degrees
below average highs (mid 30s). Strong northwest flow will
dominate. Friday another system looks to impact the Northern
Plains. A shortwave will dig through Montana, producing a
Northern Rockies low. Confidence is increasing in this event as
it has been in the models for a few days now. With this a few
inches are possible but it should not be as much as the current
storm. Timing as of now looks like Friday early afternoon
through Saturday evening. This low will wrap even colder air
down from Canada, cooling our highs down to the teens. Low
temperatures will likely be in the negatives with wind chills
even lower. We will continue to closely monitor this, especially
with the holiday weekend travel.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 240 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025


IFR west (fog) to LIFR east with the snow. Heavy snow will
continue in the southeast for the next few hours. Fog has formed
in the west and north. The snow across the state will end west
to east through today. Winds will stay gusting around 30 kts
from the northwest through this evening, then calming to 10kts
overnight. BLSN is possible this afternoon and evening and could
create IFR VIS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight
for NDZ019>023-025-034>037-042-045>047-050.
Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for NDZ048-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith/Hollan
DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Smith