537
FXUS63 KBIS 300728
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
128 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well below average temperatures will continue this weekend
  into early next week. Wind chill temperatures as low as 25
  below zero will be possible both tonight and Sunday night.

- An active northwest flow is forecast for next week, with
  periodic chances for snow and fluctuations in daily
  temperatures.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 125 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Sky cover continues to be problematic to forecast, with several
areas of low stratus and several areas of clearing, with model
guidance basically useless this morning. Opted to put scattered
flurries most areas early this morning based on observations and
associated with any stratus.

UPDATE
Issued at 1015 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Limited updates needed late this evening. Low clouds with
flurries and brief light snow continue to linger. Areas of light
snow are mainly confined to areas downstream of Lake Sakakawea
where some lake enhancement is occurring. Added in at least flurry
mention to most areas with ongoing cloud cover into the mid to
late overnight hours. High pressure to our west is still
forecast to move in later tonight, diminishing clouds and
flurries. If clouds can clear out, some patchy fog is possible
mainly in the west. Cold temperatures will also be found with
clearing skies, perhaps bringing wind chills into the teens and
20s below zero.

UPDATE
Issued at 550 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

A few light snow showers are being found under low clouds across
central and eastern portions. Some of these are from the exiting
upper level wave, while some are being enhanced from Lake
Sakakawea. Have added in slight PoPs through the evening into
the early overnight hours to account for these tonight, mainly
across central and eastern portions. Otherwise the forecast
remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Mid-afternoon radar continues to show some widespread weak returns
across our far southeast counties as the main storm system
moves away. Latest KJMS ob showed light snow had ended there.
Adjusted max temps for this afternoon downward slightly, mainly
across the west based on current trends and persistent cloud
cover.

The trough that has supported snowfall from last night through today
will push southeast of the state by early evening. Upper level
northwest flow will initially be in place as another embedded
shortwave trough rotates over the state tonight followed by weak
ridging late. Meanwhile, surface high pressure initially centered
around eastern MT will gradually build eastward across ND late
tonight. Although there have been breaks in the clouds this
afternoon for many locations, satellite imagery continues to show
widespread low stratus over northwest ND and areas of low clouds
over much of central ND. Short range forecast guidance including
soundings indicate mostly cloudy skies with low stratus overnight.
Currently, fog does not appear to be as much of a concern but we
will monitor.

The next two nights will be cold with lows ranging from around zero
to 10 below (west coldest tonight). Wind speeds will be on the
lighter side as the high moves overhead, resulting in wind
chills/apparent temps as low as 25 below zero for some locations
tonight and Sunday night (not reaching criteria for any
headlines). As the surface high slides southeast of us by
Monday, return flow sets up, leading to a notably warmer Tuesday
with highs back to the mid 20s and low 30s. This will be
short-lived, however, as a clipper and strong cold front cross
the state on Tuesday, with highs on Wednesday back in the single
digits and teens above zero. At this moment, no significant
impacts with this system are expected based on NBM and ECMWF/GFS
ensemble guidance, but will continue to monitor.

Overall, the pattern remains active through the week with
northwest upper level flow in place and multiple troughs and
ridges crossing the region. This leads to lower predictability
for specifics and is reflected in longer term probabilistic
guidance. NBM 1D viewer shows wide spread in min/max temp probs
especially from around Wednesday through next weekend. Worth
noting also is that Ensemble Situational Awareness Tables from
both ECMWF and NAEFS, along with ECMWF EFI are not highlighting
at this time any high impact weather for the upcoming week,
other than the anomalous cold the next couple nights.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 125 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Low clouds with scattered light snow showers will linger into the
early overnight hours bringing MVFR conditions. MVFR clouds could
then linger across most central and eastern sites late tonight into
Sunday morning, with some VFR clouds in the west. Areas with
clearing skies tonight could also see some patchy fog, although
confidence was not high enough to include in the forecast at this
time. A gradual improvement to VFR cloud cover is then expected for
Sunday, although some sites may see MVFR ceilings linger through the
day. Mainly dry conditions are expected for Sunday. Westerly winds
will generally be found on Sunday, shifting to the south from west
to east.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...JNS
AVIATION...Anglin/NH