847
FXUS63 KBIS 021244
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
644 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind Advisory today for winds gusting to 45 mph over western
  and north central North Dakota.

- High temperatures about 10 to 15 degrees above average today,
  returning to near average for the first half of the work week.

- Dry through the first half of this week, with low to medium
  chances (about 20 to 40 percent) for precipitation developing
  for the second half of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 642 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Cloud cover over eastern Montana continues to shift over western
North Dakota. For early morning update have adjusted cloud cover
to reflect this increase.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Current surface analysis places surface low near the
Saskatchewan/Manitoba border, with trough/warm front sliding
through the western Dakotas. Upper level analysis places low
over southeastern portions of the Midwest, with westerly flow
over our area. Over our area, winds have been becoming gusty
with the passing low.

For today, surface low will continue its swift progression to
the east passing over southern Manitoba entering western Ontario
later this afternoon. Warm front over western North Dakota will
continue to proceed easterly, with the cold front dropping
through later this morning into mid-day. Very mild air will
move into the area in the warm sector, with temperatures already
climbing into the lower to mid 50s over parts of southwest
North Dakota. Warmest temperatures should occur right before
cold frontal passage with highs expected to be about 10 to 15
degrees above average. Behind the cold front, cold air advection
will occur but it is not very strong. The main concern, though,
will be winds. Although the cold air advection is modest, it is
enough where stronger winds noted aloft (~40-45 kts) should be
able to mix to the surface as suggested by latest forecast
soundings. Therefore, have put out a Wind Advisory for today for
western and north central North Dakota.

Forecast then becomes rather quiet through mid-week as we end up
in a generally zonal flow pattern which should keep mainly dry
weather over the region and keep temperatures around or just
above average. Later in the week pattern starts to become a bit
more active with a variety of waves passing through, bringing
low to moderate chances (about 20 to 40 percent) for
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 642 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Low level wind shear will affect all locations over western and
central North Dakota through mid morning. Thereafter, gusty
northwest winds develop with gusts of 40 kts possible. Winds
will diminish this evening. VFR conditions will prevail.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS