714
FXUS63 KBIS 251926
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
226 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening from
  far northwestern North Dakota through central North Dakota,
  including the James River Valley. Severe weather is not
  expected, though a brief strong thunderstorm or two is not out
  of the question.

- High chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon
  through Thursday night. Isolated to scattered severe storms
  are possible over this time period, especially in western
  North Dakota. 60 mph winds, hail up to the size of golf balls,
  and a few tornadoes are possible.

- Below normal temperatures Friday through Sunday, with highs
  mostly in the mid 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

For this evening and into the overnight hours, there is a 20
percent chance of showers and thunderstorms across most of the
area, with a 30 percent chance in the south central including
much of the James River Valley. Anything that develops should
move from northwest to southeast. Instability looks rather
limited with generally less than 500 J/kg of MUCAPE available,
although moderate effective shear of 40 to 50 kts is expected as
well. As a result, severe weather seems unlikely. However, a
strong thunderstorm or two is possible that may result in small
hail and gusty winds.

Dry conditions are then on tap for Wednesday before additional
shortwaves move through Wednesday night through Thursday night.
Initially for Wednesday night through Thursday morning, the result
looks to be isolated to scattered sub-severe thunderstorms
mainly in the west and south central. For later Thursday
afternoon through Thursday night, a more favorable severe
weather threat sets up. Though not fully open, high pressure
over Minnesota and the Great Lakes Region will advect Gulf
Stream moisture into the state, especially the western half.
Progged mixed layer dewpoints from this are in the low to mid
50s, which may help MUCAPE values to reach in excess of 2000
J/kg. In addition, plenty of shear to sustain updrafts is also
progged for this event. Potential hazards are wind gusts up to
60 mph, golf ball size hail, and a few tornadoes. As storms
progress eastward, the environment looks less favorable, though
a few severe storms may be possible for central ND as well.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are favored to continue
Friday through Friday night, especially in the northern half of
the state. However, as supported by CSU Machine Learning, these
storms seem unlikely to become severe as of now. Conditions
then look to dry out Saturday through Saturday night before
showers and thunderstorms return early next week with severe
weather chances favored to return.

Temperature-wise, expect near average temperatures north this
afternoon with seasonably warm temperatures south. This
translates to highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Highs for
Wednesday are forecast to be below average and in the 70s for
all but the southwest where the low 80s are possible. Thursday
should be slightly warmer, with most locations remaining in the
70s, although the upper 80s are possible in the southwest. A
cooling trend is then expected Friday through Saturday, with
high confidence that Saturday will see well below average highs
in the mid 60s to around 70. A bit of a warming trend is then
favored to start next week as ridging to the west amplifies and
slides through the Northern Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Generally speaking, VFR ceilings and visibility are expected
through the period. However, there is a 20 percent chance of
showers and thunderstorms moving from northwest to southeast
this evening, with a 30 percent chance in the southeast. Any
impacts from showers and thunderstorms that develop are expected
to be brief and may include reduced ceilings and visibility, as
well as erratic winds.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Telken