600
FXUS63 KBIS 161803
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
103 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Small potential for severe storms in the southwest this
  evening.

- Active pattern with periodic shower and thunderstorm chances
  during the workweek into the weekend. A few severe storms are
  possible, more notably later in the week.

- Overall temperatures remain around average for this time of
  year.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Showers continue to push east, with only the far eastern
counties seeing any lingering activity. Quite a bit of early
afternoon sunshine across western ND. We removed pops in the
west for a while longer before bringing chances again later this
afternoon. Also trimmed pops up a bit in the east and lowered
sky cover a bit most areas, moreso west.

UPDATE
Issued at 1004 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

MCV continues to spin over eastern ND. Convection has actually
increased a bit on the tail ind over portions of Wells county
and east into Foster and Eddy counties. Don`t expect severe
storms with this activity and it will continue to track eastward
out of the CWA through the morning hours. For the morning update
mainly adjusted pops based on latest radar analysis, lowering
them west through the morning before the increase again this
afternoon.

UPDATE
Issued at 633 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Thunderstorms have weakened in strength as instability has
decreased across the state. Showers and thunderstorms are
forecast to continue to push into eastern North Dakota with some
rain wrapping around the surface low in central North Dakota.
Fog has cleared out of the James River Valley from the showers
and thunderstorms and the wind has decreased in the southwest
from the wake low, thus the headlines were dropped.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 406 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

A strong shortwave continues to pass through North Dakota
which brought forth severe weather across the southwest and
south central. A line of severe thunderstorms passed through the
southwest where it produced gusts of 94 mph in Hettinger and in
the south central where it produced a 64 mph gust in Grant
county. This system continues to decelerate and will produce
thunderstorms across the south central this morning. The
environment has weekend as instability remains around 1000 j/kg
of MU CAPE. The shear remains elevated with 35-45 kts of
effective bulk shear. At the moment there are is no severe
weather. There is another area of showers and thunderstorms
moving across north central North Dakota producing gusty down
drafts around 30-40 kts. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast
to move across the state west to east this morning. There have
been strong winds reported behind this system as a wake low
moves across the southwest and northwestern South Dakota.
Therefore, a high wind warning was issued for strong winds from
the wake low.

Widespread dense fog has been observed across the James River
Valley from surface observations and webcams. Therefore, a
Dense Fog Advisory has been issued from Foster down to Dickey
county. Dense fog may clear has storms approach this morning.

Today temperatures are forecast to warm into the 70s across the
state as surface high pressure moves into the region clearing
skies out. Overnight lows are forecast to drop down into the
50s. There is a low chance for thunderstroms and showers this
afternoon and evening and an isolated chance for strong to
severe thunderstorms this evening in the southwest. The upper
level flow will remain zonal with waves passing across the state
bringing in daily chances for thunderstorms and showers through
the week.


NSSL machine learning for severe probability is beginning to
ramp up probabilities Wednesday into the weekend as severe
weather may return to the area. This is due to instability
increasing and ample shear. A strong system may move into the
region later this weekend which could support severe weather
development as well. Temperatures will moderate, due to zonal
flow, around the 70s to lower 80s through the end of the week
before an upper level ridge amplifies across the Northern Plains
this weekend. The aforementioned strong upper level low digging
across the Pacific Northwest will cause the amplification of
the upper level ridge which will support warmer temperatures
across the southern half of the state Saturday. Temperatures
will trend lower as the upper low passes through the region
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

MVFr ceilings and some vicinity showers at KJMS to begin the 18Z
TAF issuance. Also some MVFR clouds near KDIK which should thin
out shortly after TAF issuance. Otherwise VFR. Expect mainly VFR
conditions to continue through the period. Isolated late
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are possible,
but coverage is too uncertain at this time to include in any
one TAF site. Patchy fog is possible again late tonight into
Tuesday but again, too much uncertainty in coverage to include
in TAFS. Generally west to north surface flow 5 to 15 mph.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...TWH