407
FXUS63 KBIS 031912
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
212 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy dense fog may return to parts of the area tonight,
  especially in northwestern and central North Dakota.

- Periodic isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
  forecast through the week. Isolated severe thunderstorms are
  possible on Tuesday.

- A gradual warmup is expected through mid-week. Some highs
  approaching 90 return to the forecast Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Mostly cloudy skies are present across most of the state. Much
of it is from low-level stratus. However, in places where skies
had cleared, especially the southwest, diurnal cu has
developed. Those clear skies that were in the southwest allowed
a ribbon of enhanced instability to develop that is progged
this afternoon and evening to approach 2500 J/kg of MUCAPE. A
passing subtle shortwave may produce showers and isolated
thunderstorms along this corridor. However, minimal shear is
present, therefore any thunderstorms that develop should remain
sub-severe through tonight. Monday through Monday night should
be mostly dry, although a few isolated showers and thunderstorms
may develop during the day.

Tuesday through Tuesday night is when a stronger shortwave will
likely pass through potentially producing more organized showers and
thunderstorms. Some of these storms may enter western ND early in
the morning and pass through during the day. While shear is
expected to increase during the afternoon and early evening,
there is some question as to what convection earlier in the day
might do to the environment. Therefore, continue to concur with
SPC`s marginal risk across most of the state.

Wednesday should be mostly dry before periodic showers and
thunderstorms resume to finish out the week. In regard to severe
weather potential, Thursday continues to be highlighted as a
potential severe weather day with CSU Machine Learning highlighting
a "slight risk" equivalent. That said, a lot can change four days
out. For example, while the GFS still progs ample instability on
Thursday; the deep layer shear profile is much weaker than it looked
even yesterday.

In regard to high temperatures, lowly amplified thermal ridge will
encroach into western ND on Monday. This will allow for near average
temperatures in western ND, with below average temperatures
persisting in eastern ND. Overall high temperatures will gradually
trend warmer through the middle of the week with near-average highs
mostly in the 80s Wednesday and Thursday, with parts of the
area approaching 90 degrees. Another cooling trend is then
favored to finish out the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Thick low level stratus persists over most of the state,
although the southwest has cleared off as have parts of the
northeast. That said, diurnal cu is filling in most of the area
where skies have cleared anyways. While models suggest IFR/MVFR
ceilings should quickly improve, that`s looking less and less
likely for much of the area. Still, there is a clearing heading
straight towards KBIS at the time of this writing, but
additional stratus may fill right back in. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop in western ND
this afternoon and evening. However, confidence on this
development remains fairly low so used PROB30 groups for western
terminals where the probabilities are highest. Patchy fog is
likely to develop again tonight, with the highest confidence
east of the Missouri Coteau. That said, patchy fog impacting any
terminal is greater than zero.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Telken