994
FXUS63 KBIS 152045
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
245 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler and mostly dry this weekend, with a low to medium of
  chance of light rain and snow in southwest North Dakota this
  afternoon and evening.

- Temperatures remain closer to average for the upcoming work
  week, with highs mostly in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

- Low to medium chances for light mixed precipitation Monday
  through Thursday. Little to no impacts expected at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Flow over the northern Plains is turning increasingly
northwesterly this afternoon. A low amplitude shortwave
disturbance sliding down this pattern will induce isolated to
scattered showers across portions of the forecast area this
afternoon and evening, bolstered by some weak FG forcing and
modest mid level lapse rates sliding from west to east through
early tonight. While most CAMs restrict this FG forcing to
mainly the southwest and south central, and capture its rapid
dissipation by the early to mid evening, the latest HRRR runs
continue to favor its persistence and expansion northward as it
slides across central North Dakota, which would allow for the
uptick in PoPs in north central North Dakota through the late
evening. While much of this precipitation is anticipated to fall
as rain, the gradual cooling of the column through this
afternoon and evening may allow for some light snow to mix in
across the northern and eastern edge of the precipitation axis.
That being, QPF is anticipated to be fairly limited, with only
a few hundreths up to maybe a tenth of an inch of precipitation
anticipated at any given location. Any snow that does fall
should be short-lived due to warm surface conditions, with
little to no accumulations expected. Otherwise, for today
seasonable highs in from the mid 30s to lower 40s north mid 40s
to lower 50s south are anticipated. Lows tonight are forecast
from the lower to mid 20s north to the lower 30s south.

Dry and mostly calm conditions are then expected on Sunday as
high pressure lingers over the eastern northern Plains. Slightly
warmer highs, from the lower 40s north central to mid 50s
southwest, are anticipated as southeasterly flow is found at the
surface. Gusty winds, with speeds up to 15 MPH and gusts up to
25 MPH, are possible across the southwest as the pressure
gradient tightens between the aforementioned high center, and an
approaching surface low associated with a upper level Pacific
trough/closed low moving across the Rockies late Sunday through
Monday. With cloud cover increasing overnight, low temperatures
Monday morning are also slightly warmer, from the lower 20s
north central to the mid 30s southwest.

The aforementioned upper level Pacific trough/closed low will
characterize a prolonged period of low to medium PoPs across the
forecast area through the first half of the coming workweek. An
initial, slow-moving impulse ejecting out ahead of the main
wave is anticipated promote an initial round of precipitation
early Monday through early Tuesday. Initially anticipated to
fall as all rain, cooling surface temperatures paired with
ongoing WAA in the lower levels could signal a potential period
of light freezing drizzle/rain across portions of northern and
central North Dakota Monday night through early Tuesday morning,
with a general transition to snow found further to the north
and east. While QPF during this period is anticipated to be
light, with only around a hundreth or less of liquid
precipitation advertised during this period, we will continue to
monitor this potential moving forward. Otherwise, breezy
southwest winds are also anticipated across much of northwestern
and portions of central North Dakota Monday afternoon as CAA
ramps up across the region. Once this initial round of
precipitation diminishes through the day Tuesday, the main wave
is anticipated to move across the northern Plains early
Wednesday through Thursday, reinforcing the low to medium
chances for precipitation through this period. With a split flow
regime favored by a plurality of ensemble members during this
period, precipitation is expected to remain fairly light overall
through this whole period, with the probability to exceed even
0.10" overall Monday through Thursday less than 30 percent. With
the mix of precipitation types anticipated, snow accumulations
would be short-lived if they occur at all. Otherwise, during
this period, high temperatures through the coming workweek are
anticipated to be near normal for this time of year, broadly in
the mid 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

VFR ceiling and visibility is found at all terminals to begin
the 18Z TAF period. This afternoon and evening, scattered
precipitation slides across the west and south central as a mid
level jet slides from in from Montana, accompanied by MVFR
ceilings. Have added a PROB30 group for -RA for KDIK, where
confidence in precipitation is highest. While much of this
precipitation is expected to fall as rain, some light snow is
possible along the northern and eastern edge of the
precipitation axis. All precipitation is expected to diminish
and move out of the forecast area by the early overnight period.
Late tonight through Sunday morning, shallow patchy fog is
possible in the southwest. With this update, have a slight
visibility reduction to KDIK, though have maintained VFR
visibility. Otherwise, gusty northwest winds are found in the
James River Valley this afternoon, with speeds from 15 knots
gusting to 25 knots. Winds should lighten and become variable as
high pressure settles over the region overnight, organizing out
of the southeast through Sunday morning and the end of the TAF
period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Adam
AVIATION...Adam