474
FXUS63 KBIS 030208
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
908 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of wildfire smoke will continue through tonight, possibly
  lingering into Wednesday.

- Below average temperatures will continue through the week,
  possibly warming to start next week.

- Windy on Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 908 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Scattered showers continue passing through western and south
central parts of the state this evening. There were a couple of
lightning strikes near the ND/SD border in Sioux County within
the last hour, but any strike since has been on the South Dakota
side. Showers will end for the most part over the next few
hours, though a few may persist past midnight. Adjusted PoPs
based on the latest trends, otherwise the forecast remains on
track.

UPDATE
Issued at 643 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Scattered showers are present across most of western and
southern parts of the state. So far, thunder hasn`t been
observed and is becoming less likely as instability continues to
push south. Still, a few rumbles remain possible mainly near
the ND/SD border this evening. Otherwise, the forecast remains
on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Upper level troughing continues to dig across the Canadian
Prairies into the Northern Plains. This has opened the door
for a cold front which pushed through the region this morning.
There is around a 15- 30% chance of post frontal showers and
thunderstorms moving across the state this afternoon and
evening. Majority of the rain is in the northwest at the moment
but will slowly move southeastward. The aforementioned cold
front has also brought wild fire smoke from Canada which will
cause a slight reduction in visibility. Overnight low
temperatures are forecast to drop down into the lower 40s to
lower 50s as this drier airmass advects across the region.

Tomorrow, temperatures are forecast to warm into the mid 50s to
lower 60s as this cooler air remains in place. The HRRR Smoke
Model shows smoke moving off to the west and south due to
northerly to easterly wind shift this may clear North Dakota out
temporarily. Smoke will likely return with the upper level
pattern with northerly flow.

Thursday a warm front will ride through the region warming
temperatures out west before a strong cold front dives in from
Saskatchewan. Showers are possible along the warm front mainly
in the Turtle Mountains in the morning into eastern North Dakota
where the bulk of the instability will be. Strong post frontal
winds will move through the region Thursday likely leading to
headlines. Strong pressure rises behind the front could support
winds 30-40 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Temperatures Thursday
are forecast to decrease as a even cooler air mass filtrates
into the region. Breezy winds will likely keep low temperatures
Friday morning in the upper 30s to lower 40s. However, Saturday
morning has a shot of seeing widespread temperatures at or near
freezing leading to potential for the first frost and freeze
this a fall. Again, surface high pressure will likely enforce
these cold temperatures Sunday morning across the northern half
of the state. High temperatures this weekend are forecast to sit
in the upper 50s to 60s with widespread 70s by Sunday.
Temperatures are forecast to rebound next week with high jumping
back into the 70s, but the upper level pattern remains fairly
weak hampering any widespread precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 643 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Scattered showers are present across western and southern parts
of the state. So far, thunder hasn`t been observed and is
becoming less likely as instability continues to push south.
Still, a few rumbles remain possible mainly near the ND/SD
border this evening. Despite overcast skies, ceilings are
generally VFR, though patches of MVFR are present as well,
including over KMOT. Any VFR ceilings shouldn`t last more than a
couple to few hours in any one area. Otherwise areas of smoke
are impacting much of the state, though visibility of 5SM or
greater is present at most locations.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Telken
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Telken