580
FXUS63 KBIS 040412
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1012 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- low-level stratus clearing slowly over central North Dakota
  this evening, but most likely remaining, especially over
  eastern portions of central North Dakota, into Wednesday.

- Breezy conditions Wednesday mainly across southeast North
  Dakota, including the James River Valley.

- High temperatures near to above average with mostly dry
  conditions are favored through the rest of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 933 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

We issued a small dense fog advisory for portions of north
central ND, Rolette, Pierce and McHenry counties. Fog extends a
little more west into western Ward county and south into
northern Wells county. At this time satellite indicates that
it`s just a small portion of Ward county. Harder to tell with
Wells, with widespread stratus and only a few webcams. We may
need to extend the Advisory depending on satellite and
observation trends. Guidance suggests that the fog won`t expand
farther west. However, satellite does look to show some patch
fog developing over Mercer, McLean and Oliver counties. Guidance
also suggest that the fog should already extend south across
the I94 corridor and that doesn`t seem to be the case. Being the
fog is developing along the western cloud shield and guidance
doesn`t seem to have a great handle on the fog over central ND,
it may be a case were the areal extent of the Advisory is based
solely on satellite and observational trends.

Out west, all is quiet. As mentioned earlier, went with some
drizzle over the southern James River Valley tonight into
Wednesday morning. Updated text products will be transmitted
shortly.

UPDATE
Issued at 806 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Stratus has pretty much stopped dissipating, and now is moving
back west in some areas. Fog is also developing along the edge
and around 30 miles either side of the back edge of stratus.
Adjusted sky cover a bit based on latest satellite imagery and
expectations for some westward fog development. Also add some
fog mainly along and east of the Highway 83 corridor. Not much
in the way of rain over the southern JRV, but there are some
light reflectivities and lowering of visibilities east of there,
so went with a mention of drizzle here, instead of rain.

UPDATE
Issued at 524 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Only some minor adjustments to sky cover over central ND with
the early evening updated based on latest satellite imagery.
Stratus was finally clearing quickly from west to east over
central ND late this afternoon. Current upper air observation
shows tHe stratus layer has thinned quite a bit, but as we lose
insolation, the clearing will probably slow up. Some guidance
is indicating some fog on the western fringes if the stratus
shield later tonight, mainly east of the Highway 83 corridor
from Bismarck to Minot. Currently we don`t have fog in the
forecast so will monitor this evening. Other than the clearing
line and possible fog, a quiet night looks to be in store.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 113 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Dual surface lows over northern and southern portions of the
midwest are in the process of merging over the vicinity of eastern
Iowa. After which, models agree that the singular circulation
will then migrate northward into northern Wisconsin, and
possibly retrograde to some degree into central Minnesota.
The primary impact for the CWA is that this will maintain thick
cloud cover and rain/drizzle chances through Wednesday across
parts of the south central, and especially in the southern James
River Valley of ND. For the rest of the forecast area to
include western and north central North Dakota, skies will
continue to clear as high pressure works into the area.

Once aforementioned surface low kicks off to the east Wednesday
night, another surface surface high pressure will gradually
filter in behind and pass through the state Thursday into
Thursday night. Simultaneously, a ridge currently over the
Rockies/High Plains will gradually slide eastward over the
Northern Plains. This will result in mostly dry conditions and
temperatures that remain above average through most of the week.
The exception being Thursday where stated high pressure will
keep conditions cooler (seasonable) along, north, and east of
the Missouri River.

For Friday through this weekend, models are in fair agreement
that flow aloft will become more northwesterly as the ridge
flattens. While the latest NBM is currently dry; embedded
shortwave energy could produce light precipitation when all is
said and done. A transitory ridge could then bring the warmest
temperatures of the forecast period to the western half of the
state, with the NBM currently plotting some highs in the 60s on
Sunday. That said, overall trends to finish this week and enter
into early next week are for well above average temperatures
that are only slightly warmer than this week, but increasingly
above average as the calendar moves further into November.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 933 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

VFR conditions with clear skies are expected across western
North Dakota through the 06Z TAF period, with light winds
tonight becoming northwest 5 to 15 mph Wednesday.

MVFR to IFR ceilings in low stratus over central and into
eastern ND. Stratus has moved back west towards Minot this
evening and fog has developed around KMOT. The back edge of the
stratus shield is also right over Bismarck. KJMS will likely
see MVFR to IFR ceilings tonight and Wednesday morning, with VFR
conditions developing Wednesday afternoon. KBIS may or may not
clear out tonight, and if it does clear, fog would be a
possibility. Fog may remain around KMOT through the night,
although guidance suggests it should move out towards morning.
Obviously KBIS and KMOT are the two troublesome TAF sites
tonight, and will probably lean towards the pessimistic side
through mid morning Wednesday. Once stratus/fog clear Wednesday
morning, VFR conditions should prevail at KMOT and KBIS through
the remainder of the 06Z TAF period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Wednesday for NDZ005-012-
013.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...TWH