746
FXUS63 KBIS 081714
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1214 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty westerly winds today, with gusts to 55 mph mainly north
  of Interstate 94.

- Near critical fire weather conditions over southwest and parts
  of south central North Dakota today. Near critical to critical
  fire weather conditions possible over many locations Thursday.

- Cooler temperatures today and Wednesday, a notable but brief
  warm up for Thursday, with much cooler temperatures expected
  by the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Winds have increased late morning into early this afternoon with
many locations along and north of the I-94 corridor gusting to
40 to 50 mph. Current wind advisory looks good. Otherwise no
changes were needed with the midday update.


UPDATE
Issued at 936 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Wind advisory continues through 7 PM CDT for much of western and
central ND. Near critical fire weather conditions in the far
southwest and south central as well. Currently no significant
changes needed.

UPDATE
Issued at 646 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Going forecast remains in good shape with low clouds starting to
move into far northwest North Dakota and winds staring to
increase over the west.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 417 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Current surface analysis places low over far southeast Saskatchewan,
with trough dropping into North Dakota. Upper level analysis
places low stacked over southeast Saskatchewan, with
southwesterly flow over our area. A few very weak showers are
noted over parts of central and northeast North Dakota with this
system, while southwesterly to westerly winds continue to be on
the increase behind the trough.

For today, westerly winds will continue to be on the increase
this morning as aforementioned low moves to the east, passing
over Lake Winnipeg around mid-day, and over the Manitoba/Ontario
border by evening. Tightest pressure gradient and best mixing
down of stronger winds will be generally to the north of
Interstate 94 where gusts to 55 are expected, though even along
and to the south it will be windy with gusts to 45 mph. Along
with the general concerns that come with wind, minimum
afternoon humidity values will mainly be in the 30s over
southwest and south central North Dakota, with possibly some
upper 20s over portions of Bowman and Adams Counties. Therefore,
near critical fire weather conditions are expected over much of
southwest and south central North Dakota. To the north, higher
relative humidity values are expected.

Winds will then diminish this evening. In the meantime a
notable short wave will will swing through in the flow behind
the low pushing into our area this evening. This will likely
bring showers to primarily northern portions our our area in the
evening and overnight moving easterly, and possibly a few
modest thunderstorms early on.

Quieter and cooler weather is expected on Wednesday, but modest
ridging over the area Thursday will bring notably warmer
temperatures, with highs in the 80s over most locations, with a
few spots possibly touching 90. In addition, notably drier air
moves in resulting in quite low humidity values, especially over
the southwest. Therefore, near critical to critical fire weather
conditions will be possible given an expected westerly to
southwesterly breeze.

A cold front moves through overnight into early Friday bringing
a breezy to windy day on Friday with increasing northwesterly
winds. This also will usher in notably cooler air, with highs
expected to possibly be 10 to 15 degrees below average through
the weekend into the start of the following work week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Strong westerly winds to begin the 18Z TAF period. The strong
winds will continue through the afternoon, then diminish this
evening. VFR clouds expected through the day and into this
evening with the wrap around moisture behind the system tracking
east through Manitoba. An upper level system will bring a chance
of showers and possibly a thunderstorm, west to east across the
forecast area tonight, with better chances in the north.
Included a PROB30 for a thunderstorm at KXWA, and showers at
KMOT. For now, kept the precipitation out of the southern TAF
sites, although a brief shower can not be ruled out. After
midnight and into Wednesday morning, there may be some lower
ceilings with a MVFR ceiling not out of the question. Westerly winds
will also pick up a bit around mid-morning Wednesday, but will
remain much lower than today.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for
NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017>020-022-023-025-031>033-055>059.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...TWH