039
FXUS64 KBMX 221222
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
622 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 602 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025

 - Locally dense fog, and low clouds in areas of higher terrain,
   will reduce visibility through 9 am today.

 - Showers and thunderstorms are likely Tuesday and Tuesday night.
   A low risk for severe thunderstorms may arise with this
   system.

 - Clear and much cooler conditions are forecast for Thanksgiving
   Day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Sunday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1230 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025

The weekend:

A pattern of isentropic lift is in place per Friday evening
weather balloon data from NWS Birmingham, with the last mid-level
impulse of the series scooting across the Tennessee Valley. This
setup will promote gloomy conditions overnight with bouts of
showers, drizzle, and fog. Past this morning, improved weather
conditions should evolve during the afternoon, though spotty
showers/a short-lived thunderstorm could develop southeast of the
20 ahead of an approaching front. As long as warming isn`t too
hampered by morning clouds, afternoon high temperatures could top
out near records. The frontal passage will bring clear and mild
weather for Sunday.

Early to mid next week:

A shortwave ridge axis will quickly move across the region on
Monday, providing us with another day of tame weather. On its
heels will be a trough that is forecast to bring widespread
showers and a few thunderstorms to the region Tuesday and Tuesday
night. There has been little change in the setup amongst forecast
guidance. While a northward advection of at least weakly unstable
air is shown alongside a sheared wind profile, forcing quickly
ejects to the northeast of our area early in the event; this
combined with the widespread nature of precipitation continues to
lend an uncertain prospect for severe thunderstorms. The latest
assessment matches that of the past few days in that any severe
risk looks low at this time. Beneficial rainfall is obvious
though. For Wednesday, ensemble data still show a scenario of a
slower frontal passage, resulting in lingering activity should
that pan out.

Thanksgiving Day:

It will finally feel like autumn again! Model consensus holds
onto fair-weather conditions for Thanksgiving, featuring a clear
sky and cool temperatures (afternoon 50s after morning 30s).

Into next weekend:

High pressure should be in control for Friday and Saturday with
continued clear weather and chilly mornings/mild afternoons. The
next trough/rain-maker may try to nudge into here after Saturday,
but there`s quite a bit of model variability at that range, of
course.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025

There are some pre-frontal SHRAs/TSRAs in the ERN portions of the
area that will exit soon to the E. Think that this activity should
stay away from TAF sites for now, but will need to monitor
possibly MGM/AUO for later today for any isolated development
ahead of the frontal passage. Otherwise, LIFR-MVFR cigs along
with some MVFR-IFR VSBYs are present. Not expecting the fog to
get as low as the past few days. Conditions should improve to VFR
between 17-19z across the area. The front should move through this
afternoon with winds shifting. Some wrap around stratus is
possible late tonight from the N/W. ATTM only confident enough to
mention at TCL after 9z.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MinRHs are forecast to remain well above, and winds below,
critical thresholds over the next several days. Relatively low
MinRHs look to return late next week.

Some lingering showers/an isolated thunderstorm will be around
for part of Saturday though, overall, it won`t be as rainy as
yesterday. Otherwise, a chunk of the region will become clear by
or during the afternoon. Widespread showers and a few
thunderstorms are expected Tuesday into Tuesday night, poised to
offer between one to two inches of rain, on average, across
central Alabama.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1230 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025

Record High Temperatures:

November 22:
KBHM: 79/1900
KEET: 77/2010
KANB: 79/1963
KTCL: 79/1979
KMGM: 81/2011

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     77  48  70  41 /  20   0   0   0
Anniston    77  50  70  43 /  30   0   0   0
Birmingham  76  52  70  47 /  20   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  78  50  72  45 /  10   0   0   0
Calera      79  50  72  44 /  20   0   0   0
Auburn      77  54  72  48 /  20  10   0   0
Montgomery  80  53  74  47 /  20  10   0   0
Troy        80  53  74  47 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...89^GSatterwhite
AVIATION...08