315
FXUS64 KBMX 220536
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1236 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026

- Severe Weather: A Level 1 out of 5 threat for strong to severe
  thunderstorms remains across Central Alabama through tonight.
  The main threats are localized damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph
  and localized flooding from heavy rainfall.

- Cooler, Drier Early Fall Pattern: Rain chances gradually taper
  off on Wednesday as a cold front moves through. A noticeably
  cooler and drier airmass settles across Central AL for Thursday
  through the weekend, bringing daytime highs in the
  lower-to-middle 80s and nighttime lows in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tuesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026

A marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe storms remains in
effect across Central Alabama through this upcoming evening as a
pronounced upper-level shortwave trough moves northeastward
toward the Great Lakes, driving an accompanying surface cold
front into the region from the northwest. The primary severe
weather concern will be localized damaging downburst winds
capable of knocking down tree limbs, along with periods of
torrential rainfall that could cause temporary low- lying street
flooding in heavier cells.

As the cold front slowly slides through the area into Wednesday,
shower and thunderstorm activity will gradually taper off from
northwest to southeast, clearing the way for a notable pattern
shift just in time for the autumnal equinox. A cooler, drier
continental airmass will settle into the Southeast behind the
front, keeping daytime highs in the lower-to-middle 80s on
Thursday and Friday. Overnight temperatures will drop into the
upper 50s across northern portions of the area, with lower-to-
middle 60s persisting further south. This dry, highly seasonable,
and early fall regime will persist right through the upcoming
weekend, offering calm conditions and clear to partly cloudy
skies across all of Central Alabama.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026

Given recent heavy rainfall and light winds, patchy fog is
expected overnight, with all terminals carrying TEMPO groups for
MVFR VIS. Thankfully, conditions will quickly improve past
22/15z, with all terminals remaining in VFR category into the
afternoon. Afternoon thunderstorms are expected again today, with
confidence now high enough to introduce PROB30 groups for TSRA at
all terminals except TCL through 22/24z.

/44/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather concerns remain low at this time, although
compounding effects from intensifying drought conditions may
arise. Medium chances for showers and storms will continue into
the middle of this week, with light winds outside of convection.
Look for drying toward the end of the week, with very minimal to
no rain chances Thursday and on into the weekend. MinRHs will dip
into the 35-45% range in the afternoons.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     92  67  89  64 /  50  30  40  20
Anniston    91  68  88  66 /  50  30  40  30
Birmingham  93  69  90  67 /  40  20  20  10
Tuscaloosa  95  69  93  67 /  30  20  10   0
Calera      94  69  91  67 /  30  20  20  10
Auburn      91  69  89  67 /  40  30  30  20
Montgomery  93  71  92  70 /  30  20  10  10
Troy        93  69  92  68 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION.../44/