005
FXUS64 KBMX 091117
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
517 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 511 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025

-  There is a medium to high chance of freezing temperatures
   Sunday night, focused on the northern half of Central Alabama.
   Wind chill values will be as low as the upper 10s to lower 20s
   Monday morning.

-  Breezy conditions are expected today and Monday, with wind
   gusts of 25 to 30 mph, and a low chance of wind gusts over 35
   mph. Low relative humidities will result in increased fire
   danger on Monday.

-  Temperatures will drop well into the 20s Monday night, ending
   the growing season for all of Central Alabama.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Saturday)
Issued at 1246 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025

Today and Tonight:

Troughing over the eastern CONUS will undergo significant
amplification today and tonight, as a piece of the upper low over
James Bay breaks off and dives southward to the Ohio Valley. The
original cold front remains stalled across our northern counties,
while the much stronger cold front had made it into northern
Mississippi. Ahead of this front, locally dense fog will continue
to develop, and will monitor for the need for a dense fog
advisory. Improvement will occur quickly as the front moves
through and the winds pick up. A couple isolated showers will also
continue ahead of the front.

A few additional showers may develop in our far southeast counties
near the front later day as a shortwave rounds the base of the
trough, with a low chance for a thunderstorm. Strong cold air
advection will take place elsewhere, which will be efficient for
producing gusty winds. NBM 24h max wind gusts are right around 35
mph (wind advisory criteria), so gusts may briefly hit 35 mph, but
mostly will be 25-30 mph. A lobe of 850mb wraparound moisture will
also swing through late this afternoon/evening, which may result
in a few sprinkles or some drizzle. As temperatures cool, there
will be a low chance for some non-impactful flurries in some of
our far northeast counties, especially at higher elevations.
Saturation doesn`t extend as high as the DGZ, so you may have to
squint to see them if they do occur.

Winds will remain breezy tonight, so overnight lows will remain
advection driven, and this will also inhibit frost formation.
Still, lows will drop below freezing over the northern two thirds
of the area, and the freeze watch has been upgraded to a freeze
warning and expanded by a couple counties. Wind chills will make
it feel like the upper teens to lowers 20s tomorrow morning, so
make sure to bundle up if you have to be outside.

Monday and Monday Night:

The upper low will swing through the southern Appalachians on
Monday. This will be accompanied by an unseasonably chilly air
mass with 850mb temps as cold as -13C. This will keep highs well
below normal in the 40s, with some higher elevations not getting
out of the 30s. Winds will remain gusty, with NBM 24h max wind
gusts again showing low to medium chances for occasional wind
gusts near wind advisory criteria, though mostly just below. This
will keep wind chills in the upper 20s to lower 30s across the
north. Also, with the very dry air mass, fire danger will be
elevated with these winds especially in our southern counties. The
upper low looks to track far enough east that you would have to
go to the Smokies to see any appreciable snowfall. Any
stratocumulus/stratus deck in our far northeast counties could
produce some stray non-impactful flurries as this layer would be
in the DGZ, but moisture appears to be lacking for these clouds to
form. The center of the 1032mb high will move eastward into our
southern counties Monday night, causing winds to become light to
calm and allowing for favorable radiational cooling conditions.
This will put an end to the growing season for all of Central
Alabama with lows in the 20s, and a freeze watch is in effect for
all of Central Alabama. A few of the typically cooler locations
will probably reach the upper teens.

Tuesday through Saturday:

A clipper system moving through the north-central CONUS Tuesday
will cause warm air advection to quickly develop Tuesday and
Tuesday night. Lows Tuesday night will be mainly above freezing
over the northwest half of the area but still near freezing in the
southeast half. The associated front will stall somewhere over the
area Wednesday/Thursday but rain chances are less than 10 percent.
Temperatures will continue to trend warmer. Ridging builds over
the eastern CONUS Friday and Saturday downstream of a western
CONUS trough, with warm temperatures continuing.

32/JDavis

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 511 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025

A cold front currently pushing through central Alabama will bring
some changes to area TAF sites this morning. The front was on the
doorstep of TCL and BHM just after 11Z. Frontal passage will be
marked a wind shift to the northwest, and a noticeable increase in
wind speed and gustiness. The front is also at the leading edge of
a drier air mass, so as it passes any remaining low ceilings and
FG/BR should pretty quickly go away. I`ve tried to time out the
frontal passage as best I could -- should be another hour or so to
EET, about 16Z at MGM, and 19Z at AUO.

Once the gusty winds arrive, they will stick around for the
remainder of the afternoon. Winds may become less gusty after the
sun goes down, but sustained speeds and the northwest direction
should both be pretty much maintained.

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A strong cold front moves through today with breezy northwest
winds. By Monday RH values may drop below 25 percent for a couple
hours in far southern portions of Central Alabama, with values in
the 25 to 35 percent range elsewhere. 20ft wind gusts will be at
or above 20 mph resulting in elevated fire weather concerns. RH
values drop below 25 percent for several hours Tuesday across a
larger portion of Central Alabama, but winds will be much lighter.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 103 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025

Record Low Temperatures:

November 10:
KEET: 30/1996

November 11:
KBHM: 25/1926
KEET: 27/1996
KANB: 24/1950
KTCL: 26/1953
KMGM: 29/1991

Record Cold High Temperatures:

November 10:
KBHM: 46/1950
KEET: 50/2018
KANB: 47/1950
KTCL: 51/1977
KMGM: 55/2018

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     60  27  41  20 /  10  10   0   0
Anniston    63  29  41  22 /  10  10   0   0
Birmingham  61  30  42  24 /  10   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  61  30  45  24 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      63  29  45  23 /  10   0   0   0
Auburn      70  33  44  25 /  20   0   0   0
Montgomery  71  34  46  23 /  10   0   0   0
Troy        72  34  46  23 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CST Monday for the following
counties: Bibb-Blount-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-
Cleburne-Coosa-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Marion-
Perry-Pickens-Randolph-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-
Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for the
following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-
Chambers-Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-
Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-
Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-
Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-
Winston.

Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for the following
counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-
Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Greene-
Hale-Jefferson-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Montgomery-Perry-
Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-
Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32/JDavis
AVIATION.../61/