695
FXUS64 KBMX 302337
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
537 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 535 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025

 - Significant rain amounts of one to two inches on average are
   expected across central Alabama through Tuesday.

 - Widespread freezing temperatures will return Tuesday night
   through Wednesday morning.

 - Another storm system is poised to arrive by the end of the
   upcoming week with an additional opportunity for significant
   rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening)
Issued at 535 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025

Did some tweaks on the PoPs to slow down a few hours of the
exiting of the rain in the southeast. There is a pretty defined
back-edge and that should clear the forecast area by Midnight at
least. Colder air filters in behind the line, but could be
modified a touch if clouds hang tough, like models tend to
struggle with. If the clouds do hang on, expected temperatures to
be 2 to 4 degrees above forecast in the north. We could
potentially see some clearing after sunrise before the next
shortwave works in.

16

Previous discussion:
(Through next Saturday)
Issued at 148 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025

The next shortwave trough in the train will dip into the lower MS
valley on Monday, and help induce an inverted trough/surface low
along the Gulf coast. This will begin the overrunning process into
Alabama, with another period of widespread rain expected Monday
and Monday night. While there might be enough lift provided by
synoptic scale and isentropic processes to produce a few rumbles
of thunder, it won`t be widespread and certainly shouldn`t even
approach strong (let alone severe) levels.

As that system departs the area on Tuesday, the rain will depart
with it, leaving dry and chilly weather for the mid-week period.
Models are starting to converge on a solution regarding the end of
week system, and rain chances have accordingly started to ramp up.


&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 535 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025

Low clouds hanging tough behind the line of showers moving through
area. Rain is generally only at MGM and AUO and will be exiting
these areas shortly. Opted to hang on to the lower clouds a touch
longer than model guidance with the stubbornness of cold air
stratus. You can see some clearing to our northwest on satellite,
but you can also see some expansion in MS to the north. Held off
the clearing till generally 12z with another round of low clouds
moving in with after 16z in the west and 19z in the west.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A series of storm systems will bring at least two waves of rain
to Central Alabama through Tuesday afternoon. RH values will
remain elevated through Tuesday as a more significant system moves
through the region and widespread soaking rainfall is forecast.
Dry weather returns late Tuesday through the mid-week period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     31  51  43  44 /  10  70 100  40
Anniston    35  54  45  45 /  20  70 100  40
Birmingham  36  52  42  44 /  10  70 100  30
Tuscaloosa  35  52  41  44 /  10  70 100  20
Calera      36  55  44  45 /  20  70 100  30
Auburn      44  58  51  51 /  50  60 100  40
Montgomery  46  61  50  51 /  40  60 100  30
Troy        47  62  53  54 /  50  60 100  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16