Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
559 FXUS64 KBMX 141725 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1225 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 1207 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2025 A high pressure system will deepen today limiting the amount of diurnal convection in the region. While widespread convection is less likely because of the high pressure, isolated convection can still occur with instability values several thousands,moderate lapse rates, and higher PW values. Starting Tuesday, easterly low and mid-level flow will bring increased moisture advection to the eastern half of the region. Due to the easterly flow interacting with the flow around the high pressure convergence could occur. Isolated diurnal convection is expected tomorrow, with greater coverage possible where convergence occurs. Heat indices will be in the triple digits today with higher values possible tomorrow. Will assess if a heat advisory is needed tomorrow. 24/CKC && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1207 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2025 Tuesday night, an area of low pressure will move westward across FL and into the eastern Gulf. This low should slowly move west and strengthen through Wednesday and Thursday. Models diverge heavily on the strength of this low, and how quickly the high pressure breaks down over the southeast US. With stronger mid and upper level flow remaining out of the east across the northern Gulf, recent model runs have started making a westward trend with the area of rain, taking the activity further into Louisiana. Will watch this trend. Despite the location, the low will bring plenty of east and southeasterly flow prevailing over the state, with moisture and warm air advection. There should be periods of scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms, though there is a lot of uncertainty of where the widespread activity will be, with a lot of details depending on how far west the low moves, and also how strong it becomes. Diurnal activity is expected across much of the area Wednesday and Thursday, with more widespread rain across the southern fourth of the state, closer to that low. By Friday the eastern CONUS will be under a fairly zonal upper level pattern, with scattered diurnal chances remaining over the state through the weekend. PW values will be near max with decent instabilities each day. Temperatures may take on a flipped pattern from the norm, with higher temperatures in the northwest and lower high temperatures in the southeast, closer to the cloud cover and increased rain chances. Heat indices could hit triple digits Wednesday and Thursday in the far northwest, though overall trends in temps should be cooler by the end of the week. By the weekend, temperatures may start a warming trend. 24 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2025 There is a possibility of isolated convection this afternoon and early evening, with the higher chances across the northern half of the state. Only included VCSH for now as uncertainty remains for timing and coverage over the TAF sites, except for KTCL where PROB30 is included because chances of convection are higher. As of now, there is a very small chance of showers in KMGM so VCSH has been left out of the TAF.VFR conditions will prevail outside of any isolated convection. Isolated convection is possible tomorrow near the end of the TAF period. NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until further notice due to comms issues. 24/CKC && .FIRE WEATHER... A moist summertime air mass will be in place through the foreseeable future with daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. 20 foot winds should remain less than 7 mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 72 95 72 95 / 10 20 20 40 Anniston 73 94 73 92 / 10 20 20 40 Birmingham 74 95 75 94 / 10 20 10 40 Tuscaloosa 74 96 76 95 / 10 20 10 30 Calera 74 95 75 93 / 10 20 10 40 Auburn 75 94 74 91 / 10 30 30 50 Montgomery 75 97 76 95 / 10 20 20 50 Troy 74 96 73 93 / 10 30 30 60 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...24