311
FXUS64 KBMX 090441
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1141 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025

A drier airmass is moving into the region with near-surface flow
from the north. The advection of drier air will be short-lived as
a 500 mb shortwave moves into Alabama on Thursday. This will
promote the development of an inverted surface trough from north
to south through the middle of the state, with easterly flow on
moving in from Georgia. The associated moisture should be
sufficient for isolated showers and perhaps a couple of
thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening for areas southeast
of Interstate 59. PWAT values will decrease on Friday with the
aid of low-level anticyclonic flow, leading to a dry forecast.

87/Grantham

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025

Over the weekend, a large area of low pressure is expected to
develop north of the Bahamas near the Carolina coast, placing our
area on the subsident (dry) side of this system.  Temperatures
will gradually trend upward during the weekend into the upcoming
week as sprawling 500 mb ridge builds in from the west.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025

VFR conditions are expected at most of the TAF sites through the
next 24 hours, except at KAUO and perhaps KMGM as a potential
cloud deck around 2500ft AGL moves in from the east after 11z.
Isolated showers are possible at KAUO and KMGM after 18z, but the
probability is too low to include in the current TAF cycle.

87/Grantham

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated showers are possible Thursday afternoon and evening
southeast of Interstate 59, but rainfall amounts will be very
limited. Min RH values will range from 45-60% on Thursday,
dropping to 35-45% for Friday through the weekend. Winds of 8 to
12 mph will shift to the northeast and east-northeast Thursday
morning into the afternoon. East-northeast winds will continue on
Friday. Outdoor burning remains highly discouraged due to ongoing
drought conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     59  75  53  76 /   0  10  10   0
Anniston    61  76  55  74 /   0  20  10   0
Birmingham  62  78  58  76 /   0  10  10   0
Tuscaloosa  61  83  59  80 /   0  10  10   0
Calera      62  81  56  79 /   0  10  10   0
Auburn      65  77  56  74 /   0  20  20   0
Montgomery  66  82  59  76 /   0  20  20   0
Troy        66  80  58  74 /   0  20  20   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87/Grantham
LONG TERM....87/Grantham
AVIATION...87/Grantham