888
FXUS64 KBMX 031107
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
507 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 506 AM CST MON NOV 3 2025

-  Below average temperatures are expected to continue through
   this afternoon, but will be replaced with a warm and dry
   pattern Tuesday through the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tuesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1105 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025

Northerly flow will continue into the region through the day today,
with dry and cool air advecting into the state. Temperatures will be
in the 60s this afternoon, with lows Monday night in the upper 30s
for much of the area with plenty of cooling and clear skies
expected. Though confidence is lower on needing a Frost Advisory.

High pressure will develop and move across the southeast, with winds
transitioning to out of the west and southwest by Tuesday. Moisture
and warmer air will begin to slowly return, with a gradual warming
trend beginning Tuesday afternoon through Friday (temperatures will
be well above normal for this time of year through the end of the
work week). By Wednesday, a weak shortwave moves across the TN River
Valley with an 850 mb jet skimming the northern extent of the area.
Winds could get breezy through the afternoon with a few higher
clouds traveling by, but conditions should remain dry.

Models are diverging slightly on the system(s) this weekend. A low
pressure is expected to move across the Great Lakes with an
associated frontal boundary moving through the Ohio Valley on the
Friday to Friday night timeframe. Models are uncertain on how much
this will influence the area with the system being so far to the
north and the lack of forcing with the boundary as it trails through
the state. However, there is a low chance for plenty of moisture and
warm air for light to moderate scattered activity, especially
Friday night. Have left a low end chance precip for the northern
half of the area for now due to this uncertainty.

A deep trough and associated strong low pressure system will move
across the Ohio Valley after the low Friday night. There are
several factors that could influence the amount of activity of the
state, including timing differences between the two systems and
how much activity is produced from the first system that would
allow or not allow for additional activity with the second.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 506 AM CST MON NOV 3 2025

Dry air will continue with VFR conditions expected through the
TAF period. Winds less than 10 kts.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MinRH values will more or less settle in the mid 30-40% range
through Wednesday, before slightly increasing into the weekend with
increasing rain chances. Unfortunately, widespread rainfall chances
are still limited, with drought conditions persisting across the
region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     63  37  71  39 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    64  38  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  63  41  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  66  41  74  43 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      66  40  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      66  44  72  46 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  67  41  74  41 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        66  41  74  41 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for the following
counties: Bibb-Blount-Calhoun-Chilton-Dallas-Etowah-Fayette-
Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Marengo-Marion-Perry-Pickens-Shelby-
St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...16