817
FXUS64 KBMX 121115
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
515 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 514 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025

- A warming trend will develop through late week.

- Dry conditions will continue through Saturday as drought
  persists.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1100 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2025

Deep troughing remains entrenched over much of the Northeast and
Eastern Seaboard while amplified ridging extends from over
Northwest Mexico and extends north to over much of Idaho. Strong
surface high pressure was centered over the Northeast Gulf while a
reinforcing cold front was moving southeast across the Northern
Plains and into the Midwest.

Today through Saturday.

Deep troughing will become positioned over the Northeast while
amplified ridging will become positioned over much of the
Intermountain West. A more zonal flow pattern will become
established over the forecast area through Saturday as the upper
ridging slowly builds eastward over the Southern and Central
Plains ahead of an upper low that will approach Southern
California by Saturday night. Surface high pressure will remain to
the southeast of the forecast area through this time frame.

Expect fair skies to persist through Saturday across the area
with a warming trend developing. It will be another cold morning
this morning with lows from around freezing east and south with
readings slightly above freezing west. Highs will range from the
upper 50s in the higher terrain northeast and east to readings in
the lower 70s far southwest. Lows tonight will range from the mid
to upper 30s far northeast to readings in the mid 40s southwest.
Highs Thursday will range from the mid to upper 60s in the higher
elevations east to the mid 70s southwest. Lows Friday morning will
range from the upper 30s northeast to the mid 40s west and
southwest. Highs Friday will be in the 70s areawide. Lows Saturday
morning will range from the low to mid 40s east to the low 50s
west, followed by highs in the mid to upper 70s areawide.

Sunday through Wednesday.

A persistent growing spread among available global and regional
model guidance remains in the latter portion of the extended
forecast period, largely due to differences in the position and
strength of the upper low approaching Southern California this
weekend and with a secondary low that will approach this area
early next week. Differences among guidance solutions affects
surface fields as well, with ensemble depiction spreads indicating
up to an 8-12 degree thermal spread and potentially a 20-40
percent PoP spread across portions of the forecast area beyond
Sunday due to the these uncertainties.

Longwave ridging is expected to continue to migrate east over the
South and Central Plains on Sunday. Surface low pressure is
expected to develop across the Central Plains Sunday and advance
toward the northeast into Monday as the closed low likely opens
into a potent shortwave trough as it moves northeast over the Four
Corners States. The longwave ridging flattens considerably as it
moves over much of the Mississippi River Valley Region late Monday
due to persisting troughing over the Northeast and the shortwave
trough over the North-Central Plains at that time. The shortwave
impulse looks to dampen as it becomes absorbed into a deeper
trough over the Great Lakes and Northeast while a deep trough
moves inland over much of the Pacific Northwest. Model spreads are
greatest during this time in the depiction of a slower/deeper
solution versus a more compact or open wave configuration that
propagates more quickly to the east. There is general agreement of
downstream ridging that looks to amplify over much of the Plains
and Mid-South Region during this time as would be expected in such
scenarios. A few weak fronts will try to approach the area from
the northwest, but impacts would be minimal only influencing
temperature and dew point fields to a limited degree as surface
high pressure persists just to our southeast and will maintain dry
conditions across much of the area. Another surface low tries to
develop across the ArkLaTex region Tuesday and approach the area
from the west while a more moist airmass approaches from the
southwest from the Gulf ahead of the cold front across the
Southern and Central Plains at the end of the forecast period.

Will go with continued dry conditions across the area on Sunday
despite some increasing clouds from the west later in the day.
Isolated (10-30%) chances for showers will be indicated across the
northwest portion of the area Monday with dry conditions
persisting far southeast. Carried isolated (15-35%) chances for
showers areawide Tuesday with best potential across the northwest
half of the forecast area. Isolated (10-30%) shower activity will
be forecast on Wednesday with greatest chances north and west.
There may be enough instability for some thunderstorm activity
northwest on Tuesday, but will hold off on that depiction for now
until the more crucial elements are better resolved. Temperature
trends will be more steady through this time frame as lows
areawide will be in the low to mid 50s Sunday morning with highs
in the mid to upper 70s by afternoon. Slightly cooler lows Monday
morning from the mid to upper 40s northeast to the low 50s
southwest are expected with highs 2-4 degrees cooler to the
northeast on Monday afternoon with readings from the low 70s far
east to the upper 70s south and southwest. Lows will be in the low
to mid 50s areawide Tuesday morning with highs from around 70 far
north to the upper 70s south.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 514 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025

Dry conditions and clear skies through the next 24 hours.

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions with continued drought will impact the area
through much of the upcoming weekend. Winds will remain lighter as
surface high pressure remains just to the southeast of the
forecast area. Minimum RH values in the mid to upper 40 percent
range is expected across the south and southeast portions of the
area this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     64  37  69  39 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    64  42  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  64  44  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  69  46  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      68  44  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      65  45  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  69  45  72  43 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        69  44  72  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION.../61/