Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
775 FXUS64 KBMX 161108 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 608 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 604 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2025 - There is a moderate to major heat risk across central Alabama today. To avoid heat-related illness, heat safety should be exercised for people and pets. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 120 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2025 An elongated west-east 500mb ridge axis will be overhead today, which will promote another day of hot and humid conditions. A moderate to major heat risk will exist. At least isolated shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast for central Alabama, aided by the summertime air mass and a broad low-level confluence pattern. A greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms should exist near and south of the 85 corridor due to the tropical low moving across the northern Gulf (Invest 93L). The center of 93L should be near southeast Louisiana at the 48-hour point/on Thursday. Due to the ridge weakening and a northward surge in tropical moisture, there should be more in the way of shower and thunderstorm activity, but focused south of the 20 corridor the way things currently stand. 89^GSatterwhite && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 120 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2025 Models suggest 93L will turn northward over Louisiana between 48-72 hours as it rounds the western side of the ridge. Ensemble data point to Friday featuring the best potential for a scattering of showers and thunderstorms, related to the tropical low, across all of central Alabama. Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms continue over the weekend with a moderate heat risk. The 500mb ridge is forecast to strengthen next week, leading to the prospect for high temperatures reaching the middle 90s with humid conditions resulting in heightened heat risks. Showers and thunderstorms will be around in some fashion as well. 89^GSatterwhite && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 604 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2025 Recently developed patchy fog will lead to MVFR vis for the next hour or so at TCL. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail for the majority of this TAF cycle. Opted to add in PROB30s to account for afternoon convection at all terminals as the latest CAMs are hinting at isolated activity developing. Patchy fog Thursday morning will be dependent on who sees rain today. NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until further notice due to comms issues. 95/Castillo && .FIRE WEATHER... Fire weather variables are not expected to present any issues over the next several days. 20-foot winds should average less than 10 mph with shifts in heading from day to day. Spells of showers and thunderstorms are expected as well, especially afternoon into evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 95 72 93 72 / 20 20 30 10 Anniston 93 73 91 73 / 30 20 30 10 Birmingham 95 75 93 74 / 20 20 40 10 Tuscaloosa 96 76 92 75 / 20 20 40 10 Calera 93 75 90 74 / 20 20 40 10 Auburn 89 74 90 74 / 40 20 50 10 Montgomery 93 75 92 74 / 40 20 60 10 Troy 90 72 90 73 / 60 20 70 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Bibb-Blount-Fayette-Greene-Hale- Jefferson-Lamar-Marengo-Marion-Perry-Pickens-Shelby-St. Clair- Sumter-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston. && $$ SHORT TERM...89^GSatterwhite LONG TERM....89^GSatterwhite AVIATION...95/Castillo