Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
674 FXUS64 KBMX 291904 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 204 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 202 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025 This afternoon, a stationary surface boundary is situated along the Gulf Coast. Otherwise, low level flow across C AL is relatively weak. In the upper levels, disturbances will migrate through the NW flow. With higher moisture and cloud cover present across the S/SE half of C AL through the short term, there will be both a temperature and pop gradient. Higher temps and little to no pops across the N/NW and lower temps/higher pops across the SRN counties for this afternoon and the SE counties on Sat. With a somewhat stable airmass, most of the lightning should be confined to along the coast. 08 && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 202 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025 No major changes were made to the extended. For Sat night through Mon morning, we should see a break in convection for most. Shower and tstorm chances increase after that for Mon through most of the remainder of the extended with a persistent NW upper flow and multiple meandering surface boundaries. Temperatures will remain fairly consistent through the extended with no major CAA expected. However, there is a hint just past the end of the extended as we move into next weekend for a front with sufficient somewhat colder air to make it through (fake fall #2). 08 Previous long-term discussion: (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1243 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025 Northwest flow continues early next week with Central Alabama situated between broad ridging over the western CONUS and stubborn troughing over the eastern CONUS. This will allow for the occasional disturbance embedded in the flow which will likely initiate isolated to scattered showers or storms each day through the first half of next week, but nothing too unusual, and there will be periods of sun mixed in as well. Temperatures also look to remain fairly steady with 80s during the day and 60s at night, so hopefully we can continue to avoid the 90s. There are some signals of a more organized system and frontal passage beyond Wednesday which would influence higher PoPs late in the forecast period. This may also signal another push of cooler and well below-average temperatures by the end of next week. We shall see. 86/Martin && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025 Most TAF sites are VFR ATTM except for MGM/AUO in the S closer to the better moisture. They are currently MVFR with cigs. SHRA activity will increase across these sites. There is a surface boundary to the S of the TAFs. Moisture will ride NWD today interacting with upper disturbances allowing decent chances for showers thru Sat. Will briefly mention VCSH at EET for late afternoon as activity spreads NWD with heating. Not confident enough at any of the other sites ATTM. Low cigs (LIFR), along with some patchy fog (MVFR) will spread across the SRN half of the area, but will likely just affect MGM/AUO, with a lesser extent at EET. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... MinRH values will be elevated this afternoon, especially across the southern half of the area, as a disturbance moves into the region. This disturbance is one of a few, so rain chances will remain in the forecast through Saturday. Some locations will see between a half an inch and one inch of rain, with highest amounts in the southern tier of the area. Mixing Heights will be reduced in the south as well due to the increased cloud cover. With increasing moisture and rain chances, there are no fire weather concerns at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 64 85 62 85 / 10 10 0 10 Anniston 65 82 64 84 / 20 10 0 10 Birmingham 68 86 65 86 / 10 10 0 10 Tuscaloosa 67 88 66 88 / 10 10 0 10 Calera 67 85 65 86 / 20 20 0 10 Auburn 67 80 64 82 / 40 40 10 10 Montgomery 68 82 66 84 / 40 40 10 10 Troy 68 81 65 82 / 40 50 10 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....08/86/Martin AVIATION...08