352
FXUS64 KBMX 012308
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
608 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 608 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026

- Widespread Rainfall: Showers and storms return to the forecast
  by Friday, with the best chances Sunday through Monday. Rainfall
  amounts will generally be between 1 to 2 inches across the
  southern and central sections of the region, with locally higher
  possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026

Deep moisture will continue streaming into the region from the
south, although generally dry conditions will persist across much
of the area through Saturday. Moisture return will gradually
increase through the weekend, albeit somewhat delayed as a cold
front stalls to the north and Gulf moisture is partially
intercepted by coastal convection. By Sunday, a shortwave impulse
is projected to track north-northeastward out of the Gulf into
southwestern Central Alabama. This feature will aid in lifting
heavier rainfall farther inland rather than confining it to the
coast. Monday night into Tuesday, a deepening trough over eastern
Canada will kick the cold front southward through the area. In
its wake, a cooler and drier air mass will filter into the
region, bringing a return to seasonable temperatures through
midweek.

Confidence remains moderate that the approaching cold front will
stall far enough north to allow Sunday`s shortwave to traverse a
significant portion of the local area. This setup is expected to
produce widespread rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches through
Monday. Given the moderate-to-heavy nature of the precipitation,
locally higher amounts exceeding two inches are possible, with
probabilities of exceedance around 50 percent across central and
southern portions of the forecast area. PoPs were lowered
slightly for Saturday to reflect recent guidance trends showing
reduced coverage, and further reductions may be necessary in
subsequent updates.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026

The broad ridging to our east slowly breaks down as we get
towards the end of the period. Generally light southeasterly
winds are expected through the next 24 hours with high clouds.
Increasing rain chances will work into the area from the south
after 18z tomorrow, but should stay south of MGM through 00z. The
forecast keeps 20-30% chance for rain for MGM in the last few
hours of the period, so I`ll continue to hold off mention in the
TAFs for now.

25/Owen

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions will persist through most of Friday, with isolated
rain chances overnight primarily limited to southern areas. As
southerly flow returns, humidity levels will increase into the
50s and low 60s on Friday. Rain chances increase significantly
Sunday into Monday, with the highest probabilities across
southern and central sections.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     67  91  69  88 /   0  20  20  50
Anniston    68  90  70  88 /   0  20  20  40
Birmingham  69  90  71  88 /   0  20  20  40
Tuscaloosa  70  93  70  91 /  10  20  20  50
Calera      69  91  70  88 /   0  20  20  40
Auburn      69  88  70  85 /   0  20  20  60
Montgomery  70  91  71  88 /  10  30  20  70
Troy        69  90  70  86 /  10  40  30  80

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...25/Owen