Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
712 FXUS64 KBMX 082337 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 537 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 531 PM CST MON DEC 8 2025 - Lows tonight will fall below freezing for nearly all of Central Alabama. - Temperatures into next weekend will again fall to below average, with a period of below freezing nights possible. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 536 PM CST MON DEC 8 2025 Main forecast challenge will be cloudcover overnight and its effect on temperatures as winds go calm. In general, looking at where the breaks are on satellite imagery suggests clouds hanging on generally along and west of I-65 with more clearing east of I-65. Have bumped up low temperatures especially across the southwest counties, while the coolest readings should be in the northeast. May need to bump these up further in some areas. In areas that do clear, there will be a low chance for patchy fog. 32/JDavis Previous discussion: (This afternoon through next Saturday) Issued at 1147 AM CST MON DEC 8 2025 Good news, bad news. The bad news is, today is going to be another cloudy, dreary day given the cool temperatures and low clouds. Thankfully, these clouds will finally mix out by tomorrow morning as dry air begins to filter into the region behind the front. This means sunny skies will finally return to the region, with clear skies expected through the middle of the workweek. With that being said, clouds and rain chances will return by Thursday ahead of the next trough into the weekend. If you remember in my discussion yesterday, I mentioned that the cold weather this weekend will heavily depend on how far south the trough ends up dropping. Even in the last 24 hours, long-range guidance has already backed off on the deep, secondary low that would have pushed this trough well into the region. Now, this is somewhat expected given that we`re still six days out, and this is quite literally an ebb and flow forecast given the nature of low pressures. It`s entirely possible this happens 12 more times the next six days. Super cold one day, more "mild" the next. As such, the temperatures this weekend will certainly be something to keep an eye on, it`s just a matter of "how low can we go?" /44/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 531 PM CST MON DEC 8 2025 Satellite imagery still indicates an expansive area of low stratus across the area, but with some breaks. The most notable break is across East Alabama and Georgia due to downsloping off the Appalachians, with smaller breaks further to the west. Probabilities from the HREF favor keeping the low clouds around at BHM/EET/TCL through the night, with bases lowering to IFR. There is a lower probability alternative scenario, however, where ceiling scatter out overnight. If this happens then there would be at least a low chance for patchy fog. Have some TEMPO groups for MVFR at MGM/AUO tomorrow morning, with low to medium chances for the cloud deck to push southward towards MGM, as well as for another low cloud deck across Georgia to push westward towards AUO. VFR conditions should return by late morning Tuesday as low-level flow becomes southwesterly. 32/JDavis && .FIRE WEATHER... MinRH values will continue to run above 40% for most of the next week, with no widespread rainfall chances in the forecast. Even with no rainfall anticipated, fire weather concerns will remain little to non for most of this week given wet fuels. However, by this weekend, fuels may dry back out, and MinRH values may drop back into the 30% range. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 26 51 32 59 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 28 53 34 60 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 29 51 36 59 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 31 53 34 61 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 28 54 34 62 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 31 52 34 60 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 31 53 32 63 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 31 53 31 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...32/JDavis AVIATION...32/JDavis