Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
644 FXUS64 KBMX 061802 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 102 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 100 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025 The radar is only indicating a few light returns. There has been significant stratus coverage this morning. We have a low chance for some scattered showers this afternoon across the SW counties. Any other coverage should be more sparce across C AL. There should be a noticable rain break for part of tonight as we switch focus from shortwave to activity developing to the W/NW ahead of a cold front late tonight toward morning. Rain chances will continue into Tues for C AL with the best chances for showers (small TS chance) across the N/NW counties. While our temperatures are a little lower today with cloud cover, winds should become a little more SE-S on Wed ahead of the front and help with warm up despite the morning stratus. 08 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 100 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025 Extended guidance continues to indicate a low to moderate chance of showers and tstorms (best chances N) ahead of and along the front Tue night into Wed as moisture gradually increases. While any rain will be welcome, QPF amounts continue to be meager with this system. The system timing slows some to make it through the SE counties with the last bit of moisture/low pops lingering through the daytime on Thu. After that, cooler and drier weather take over with E Conus ridging expected to remain for the rest of the extended. 08 Previous long-term discussion: (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1243 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025 By Wednesday, the weak front will work into the area, maintaining 20- 30% rain chances. Ahead of the front, high temperatures are forecast to be in the mid to upper 80s across central and southern areas. A slight cool down is expected toward the end of the week, with 70s to low 80s Thursday and Friday. Higher terrain areas of east- central Alabama may be in the low 70s both days. Slight rain chances are currently forecast for areas east of I-65 on Thursday, as a weak upper low slides through the area. Light rain and cloud cover are likely to reinforce cooler temperatures across eastern areas late week. Overall, the dry period will remain in place, as the small rain chances throughout the forecast period will do little to halt emerging or worsening drought conditions across different parts of the region. With little relief in sight from a rainfall standpoint, drought and fire danger is likely to continue, if not worsen, through next week. 12 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 100 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025 MVFR cigs will continue for a couple of hours for many of the TAF sites. We should have VFR cigs for the latter half of the afternoon and most of tonight. MVFR cigs should redevelop late tonight toward morning first toward AUO then spreading across the most of the sites after daybreak. There may be as low as IFR at AUO, but as of now mainly MVFR is expected. Tight gradients continue for much of this forecast and will allow for a few gusts at times (15-22kt). Note: AMD NOT SKED will be appended to the KEET TAF while comms issues persist. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... Rain chances are in the forecast through Wednesday, especially in northern and western counties. However, any amounts are expected to be light, and no widespread wetting rainfall is expected. Any rainfall amounts will be too light to mitigate the worsening drought. RH values should remain above 50% each afternoon through Wednesday. Winds today will be generally easterly to southeasterly up to 12-15 mph, gusting to 20 mph. Outdoor burning remains highly discouraged due to ongoing drought conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 66 85 66 82 / 20 30 50 20 Anniston 68 84 67 82 / 20 20 40 30 Birmingham 69 85 68 83 / 20 20 40 20 Tuscaloosa 70 87 68 84 / 30 20 30 20 Calera 68 87 67 85 / 20 20 30 20 Auburn 67 84 68 85 / 10 10 20 20 Montgomery 69 87 69 88 / 20 20 20 20 Troy 67 86 67 87 / 20 10 10 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....08/12 AVIATION...08