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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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062 FXUS64 KBMX 160046 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 746 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 723 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2024 A moisture and instability gradient was present over Central Alabama. The axis was roughly east to west from near I-20 east, then due west from Birmingham to the Mississippi state line. A few storms were ignited mainly due to heating of the day. Thereafter, the outflows propagated outward and initiated additional storms. The isolated to scattered activity will diminish rather quickly the next few hours. Due to the moisutre content, any storms that develop may drop a heavy downpour in a short period of time. Overnight, the showers will diminish and the clouds will slowly decrease. Outside of these areas, mostly clear conditions will continue. Lows will generally be in the 70s. 75 Previous short-term discussion: (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 1245 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2024 Tonight. Mid-level ridging will remain in place to our west while a weak mid-level disturbance moves north toward the area from the southeast. This feature may be accompanied by a low-level surface trough reflection that would be across the southern portion of the state this evening and slowly lift northwest overnight. The presence of this additional boundary in the lower levels will also contribute to widely isolated shower and storm potential this evening. Winds will be from the southeast at 3-6 mph. Low temperatures will range from the upper 60s far east to the low and mid 70s west and central. Sunday. Mid to upper level ridging will become positioned overhead while a lingering weak disturbance looks to continue to advance northwest with time on Sunday. The surface front will stall over the area and begin lifting northward as warm front into Sunday while the surface trough moves northwest with time. These features, along with any outflow boundaries from convection today, will provide more support for surface convergence and result in slightly higher potential for showers and some thunderstorms that would be most likely to develop in the heat of the day. Winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph. High temperatures will range from the lower 90s in the higher elevations east to the mid to upper 90s elsewhere. 05 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 145 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2024 Long term forecast is on track this afternoon, with only minor adjustments to pops. 14 Previous long-term discussion: (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 324 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2024 A deep-layer ridge will be centered over North Carolina on Monday, opening the door to south-southeast flow in the 850-500 mb layer across Alabama. This will lead to a significant increase in PWAT values over the western third of our state. A moisture gradient from west to east will correspond with POPs ranging from 50 percent along the AL/MS state line to 20 percent on our eastern border. The ridge axis will swing back to the west on Tuesday, and as flow becomes more easterly, PWAT values should drop below 1.5 inches across most of the area. Accordingly, any showers and thunderstorms should be isolated in nature and confined to our western counties. A large area of subsidence and below normal moisture content will persist across the region for Wednesday and Thursday with no rain expected. A tropical wave embedded within easterly flow could begin to reach our eastern counties on Friday along with a slight increase in rain chances. 87/Grantham && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 723 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2024 Showers and storms were near TCL/BHM/EET at the start of the period. This convective activity may last a few hours and propagate along outflows. Heavy rain and gusty winds will accompany the stronger storms. Otherwise, the terminals should experience VFR much of the time. Patchy fog will be around the area toward daybreak, but will remain too limited to mention. More convection is possible on Sunday, but also, too limited to mention at any specific terminal at this time. 75 && .FIRE WEATHER... A few showers or storms are possible this evening, with dry conditions overnight. Showers and thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon across much of the area, although coverage still looks to be fairly limited. 20- foot winds will be light and variable through Sunday morning, becoming southeasterly up to 6-8 mph through Monday evening. Afternoon min RH values are expected to drop into the 35-45 percent Sunday, and remain above 40 percent on Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 70 96 70 92 / 20 30 10 20 Anniston 72 95 72 92 / 20 20 10 20 Birmingham 74 98 74 92 / 20 20 10 30 Tuscaloosa 73 98 75 90 / 20 20 10 40 Calera 72 97 74 92 / 20 20 10 30 Auburn 72 95 74 90 / 20 20 10 20 Montgomery 73 97 74 91 / 10 20 20 30 Troy 71 95 72 91 / 10 20 20 30 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...75 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...75