207
FXUS64 KBMX 271720
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1220 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1217 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms across
  Central Alabama on Friday afternoon and evening. Damaging wind
  is the primary threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025

An expansive cumulus field has developed during the late morning
hours, aided by only scattered high cirrus working through the area
in relation to an upper low centered over Georgia. A large cluster
of storms has developed over northwest Alabama and southwest Middle
Tennessee. We should see more storm development this afternoon down
into Central Alabama. Although storm development is anticipated, as
a whole most storms should remain below severe limits. There is a
Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across Central Alabama
through the evening hours, however. Some storms may be capable of
damaging winds. Microburst potential isn`t extremely high, but any
isolated storms that are able to build good cores may be capable of
damaging downburst winds. Microburst composite parameter is higher
across northern and western counties and lower across the southeast,
where lower PWATs are in place closer to the upper low. Cumulus
development has been comparatively meager across the southeast as
well so far today.

Storm motions will be slow and somewhat erratic with the proximity
to the upper low, as already seen with the activity across northwest
Alabama. Motions and new development will likely be influenced later
on by surface outflow boundaries. Any storms sitting over the same
area for an hour or two may pose a minor flooding risk.

12

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025

Minimal changes were needed to the extended. Rain chances remain
highest Monday and Tuesday afternoons (80-90%). High temperatures
and heat indices do not necessitate any issuance of heat-related
products across Central Alabama at this time, with heat index
values currently forecast to remain below 105F through next week.

12

Previous long-term discussion:
(Saturday through next Friday)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025

Saturday and Sunday.

The upper low continues to lose definition through the weekend as
it becomes centered across Southwest Georgia. Surface troughing
migrates east, extending from over the Mid-Atlantic States south
across the South Carolina Coast while surface high pressure from
the Southwest Atlantic noses eastward across much of Florida and
into the Wiregrass portion of the state. Shower and thunderstorm
chances will be maximized from midday through the early evening
hours with scattered activity both afternoons. The lack of
organized surface and upper-level features near the area will
result in the more classic summertime disorganized convection
setup largely influenced by previous convection outflow
boundaries, differential heating gradients due to terrain features
and other mesoscale processes. Scattered convection during the
peak heating hours will help limit high temperatures to the lower
90s and keep heat index values below advisory criteria.

Monday through Tuesday.

A mid-level trough will dig southeast over the Western Great
Lakes during the on Monday and dip southward over the Mid-
Mississippi River Valley eastward to over the Ohio River Valley
during this time frame. Some mid-level disturbances are progged on
some of the available global guidance moving over the Mid-South
Region and continuing eastward to over the Southern Tennessee
Valley and northwest portions of the forecast area. Surface high
pressure will remain centered off the Southeast Atlantic Coast
while the aforementioned trough will help advance a cold front
southeast across the North-Central Plains, Midwest and Ohio River
Valley Regions into the Mid-South Region by Tuesday morning.
Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of the area
with greatest chances across the northwest counties each day.

Wednesday through Friday.

Mid-level troughing will move east, extending from over Southeast
Canada extending south over much of the Northeast and Mid
Atlantic States while mid-level ridging will build to a limited
extent over the Southern Plains. The surface front pushes further
southeast then stalls roughly along the Interstate 20 corridor
through this time frame while surface high pressure will build
across the Eastern Central Plains into much of the Ohio River
Valley. Expect unsettled conditions across the area with continued
scattered chances for shower and thunderstorm activity. Some
global guidance depicts a few impulses diving southeast toward the
area during this time from over the Mid-Mississippi River Valley
and Mid-South Regions as a more northwest flow pattern develops
aloft over the local area. PoPs look to be greatest across the
northwest portion of the area, especially if this flow pattern
does materialize with some potential convective complexes
developing and moving southeast toward the area toward the end of
the work week.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025

Shower and thunderstorm activity is developing across parts of
Mississippi and Alabama this afternoon. Have maintained PROB30 at
all sites after 18z for thunderstorm development. Outside of any
thunderstorms, cloud bases are around 3000 ft, so any heavier
cumulus may briefly drop sites to MVFR.

Lowered vis is possible during the early morning hours, especially
at any terminals that receive rainfall this afternoon. Have kept
sites at/above 4SM for now.

NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until
further notice due to comms issues.

12

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will be prevalent across
the area this afternoon and again Saturday afternoon. Minimum
relative humidity values will remain in the 50 to 60 percent range
each afternoon through Sunday. High moisture content will persist
along with generally light winds outside of convection resulting in
minimal fire weather concerns through the weekend. With much higher
rain chances Monday and Tuesday, relative humidity values should
generally remain above 70 percent across the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     68  91  69  89 /  20  50  20  60
Anniston    69  89  70  88 /  20  50  20  60
Birmingham  71  90  71  88 /  20  40  20  70
Tuscaloosa  71  91  73  89 /  20  50  20  70
Calera      70  90  71  88 /  20  50  20  70
Auburn      70  90  71  89 /  20  50  20  60
Montgomery  70  91  71  89 /  20  50  20  70
Troy        68  90  70  89 /  20  50  20  70

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12