533
FXUS64 KBMX 251209
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
609 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 605 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025

 - Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected today through
   tonight through Tuesday. There is a level 1 to 2 out of 5 risk
   for severe thunderstorms with hazards including isolated
   damaging winds, quarter size hail, and perhaps a couple of
   tornadoes.

 - Clear and colder conditions are forecast for Thanksgiving Day.

 - The next chance of rain will return Saturday night into Sunday,
   marking the beginning of a wetter weather pattern.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tuesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1149 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025

An band of elevated convection will continue to organize to our
west tonight as an upstream shortwave approaches from the Ark-
La-Tex region. This activity will move into our northwestern
counties between 1 AM and 3 AM, and progress eastward toward the
I-59 corridor around 6 AM. As the associated shortwave skirts by
to our north, a trailing confluence band will be left in wake of
this early morning round of convection. Weak subsidence will allow
surface-based CAPE to build in the late morning into the afternoon
as mid to upper 60s dewpoints advect northward. Eventually
broad/weak cyclonic height curvature and weak height falls,
combined with daytime heating, will promote additional convective
development around 18z within confluence zones. Due to the
weak/subtle nature of the forcing, scattered cellular activity is
expected. A lingering low-level jet should slowly weaken through
the daylight hours, ranging from 30-40 knots as storms mature.
Though hodographs will not be particularly large, 0-3 km SRH of
200-300 m2/s2 will support weak to moderate mesocyclones within
the strongest cells, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes during the
afternoon and early evening hours.

The current remarkable stretch of above normal temperatures will
come to an end as a front surges through the region Tuesday night
into Wednesday. The establishment of a large trough over the
eastern CONUS will result in days of afternoon highs in the 50s
and cold nights. As the pattern becomes more progressive over the
weekend, zonal 500 mb flow will induce southwesterly flow at 850 mb
and low-level isentropic lift, leading to our next chance of rain
late Saturday into Sunday and Monday.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025

We have a combo this morning of anywhere from MVFR to IFR cigs
accompanying SHRA/TSRA in the N/IE...TCL/BHM/EET. In the S, VFR to
MVFR with SHRA in the VC and SHRA/TSRA expected later today ahead
of a cold front. This activity will continue into this evening as
the system progresses SEWD across C AL. More low cigs are possible
later tonight MVFR-IFR with some wrap around moisture. Cigs
shouldn`t last all night at TCL with some drier air moving into
the area behind the front from the W toward the end of the TAF
forecast.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A warm and moist airmass will persist ahead of a front on Tuesday
along with high rain chances. Behind the front, a drier airmass
will surge into the region. Afternoon RH values are expected to
fall to 25-35 percent for Thursday through Saturday. Winds will
be near 10 mph with the potential for gusts around 20 mph from the
south on Tuesday before shifting to the northwest on Wednesday
and Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     74  50  61  32 /  90  60   0   0
Anniston    74  54  62  34 /  80  80   0   0
Birmingham  74  52  61  35 /  90  50   0   0
Tuscaloosa  77  51  61  35 /  90  30   0   0
Calera      77  53  64  36 /  80  60   0   0
Auburn      76  59  67  38 /  60  80   0   0
Montgomery  79  57  67  37 /  70  70   0   0
Troy        79  58  69  38 /  40  70   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...87/Grantham
AVIATION...08