968
FXUS64 KBMX 140349
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1049 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025

Scattered showers and storms began developing slightly earlier than
expected today which is more evidence that it won`t take much
synoptic support to help initiate storms given the moist and
unstable environment out there. A subtle mid-level shortwave
embedded within the larger-scale troughing over the ArkLaTex is
rotating from the Mississippi Valley towards the Ohio Valley
producing PVA and enhancing lift across the area. Latest CAMs are
still resolving a broken line of storms which will develop in
Mississippi and move across Central Alabama during the mid to late
afternoon. This clustered activity could pose a Marginal severe
risk of damaging wind gusts, but it`s becoming more conditional as
the storms across the area currently will begin to cold pool and
stabilize the environment. Nonetheless, a passing shower or storm
looks like a given for many locations today, especially those
across the northwestern half of the area.

The activity will begin to diminish this evening, but a similar
situation looks to occur tomorrow as the mid-level trough begins to
shift east across the Ozarks and towards the Ohio Valley. Expect
more rounds of passing showers and storms, primarily during the
afternoon. Nothing looks particularly organized, but a few strong
storms may develop.

86/Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1001 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025

Sunday night through Tuesday, high pressure will be over the
southern Florida/eastern Atlantic region, with another area of
high pressure over TX and the southwest. Weak troughing will be
present between the two high pressures, just north of the area.
Low and mid level winds will be from the southwest bringing
moisture and warm air advection to the state. There is a medium to
high chance for diurnal thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday
afternoons. Instabilities should be anywhere between 2000 -3000
J/kg with PW values near max for this time of year. The wind
profile will be fairly weak with weak shear, so summer time,
develop-build-collapse storms will be the most popular mode of
convection these two days.

By Wednesday, the pattern shifts slightly with the trough
weakening and zonal flow prevailing to the north of the area. The
high pressure over the southwest will begin to strengthen and move
east, with the high over the Florida area maintaining influence
over the state. Low and mid level flow could shift to a more
westerly direction, with PW values decreasing from over 2 inches
to around 1.6 inches for much of the area. Models are trying to
hint at a low chance for Wednesday to be the day with the least
amount of coverage with light winds and lower instabilities, and
diurnally driven convection continuing Thursday through the
beginning of next weekend.

With southwesterly to westerly flow through the long term period
bringing moisture and warm air, heat indices will be in the upper
90s to near triple digits in many areas of the west and southwest.
Will need to keep an eye on these trends for increases in the heat
threat.


24

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 656 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025

VFR conditions are expected generally for this evening. Diurnal
convection is tapering down/moving EWD out of the area for the
night. Only have a brief SHRA mention in the NE sites for a couple
of hours. Have a mention at MVFR conditions possible after 10z
(cigs/vis) and could last as late as 15z before conditions would
go VFR. During that timeframe could see a small window of IFR cigs
as well around sunrise. More afternoon diurnal convection is
possible for all on Sat, with the best chances in the afternoon.

NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until
further notice due to comms issues.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MinRH values are forecast to remain above 50 percent for the next
several days as very moist air mass moves northward over the Deep
South. Daily rain chances will remain elevated as well. 20 ft
winds from the south to southwest should remain less than 7 mph
through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     69  85  67  86 /  60  80  70  70
Anniston    71  85  70  86 /  60  80  60  70
Birmingham  71  85  70  87 /  40  80  60  70
Tuscaloosa  72  86  71  87 /  20  80  60  70
Calera      71  85  70  85 /  20  80  60  70
Auburn      73  85  71  86 /  50  80  50  70
Montgomery  72  88  70  87 /  20  80  50  80
Troy        73  88  70  88 /  30  80  40  80

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...86
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...08