368
FXUS64 KBMX 020552
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1152 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1151 PM CST MON DEC 1 2025

 - Significant rain amounts of one to two inches on average are
   expected across the southeast half of central Alabama through
   Tuesday. Highest rainfall amounts are expected along the I-85
   corridor.

 - Widespread freezing temperatures in the low to mid 20s will
   return Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. A few upper
   teens will likely be observed within the coldest valleys.

 - Another storm system is poised to arrive by the end of the
   upcoming week with an additional opportunity for soaking rains
   Thursday night through Friday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening)
Issued at 520 PM CST MON DEC 1 2025

Overall forecast is on track with temperatures and PoPs, so
changes will be minimal for the night. May wind up needing to
raise temperatures another degree or two in the north, but will
focus on the trends of the hourlies through the night. Bottom
line, the precipitation should move out before we even flirt with
32 degrees in the north/northwest.

16

Previous discussion:
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 1250 PM CST MON DEC 1 2025

Today through Tuesday night:

A northern stream mid and upper-level trough will move eastward
across the Central CONUS tonight, while a weaker southern stream
disturbance moves along the Gulf Coast. The latter disturbance
will interact with a stalled frontal boundary over the northern
Gulf, causing weak cyclogenesis and a surface low lifting
northeastward across the Florida Panhandle and South Georgia.
While it`s taken a bit longer to saturate the column this
afternoon, strong isentropic lift will eventually result in
widespread light to moderate stratiform rain overspreading the
area by this evening. There initially will be two areas of rain,
one across the northwest counties with the northern stream system,
and another across the southeast counties with the southern stream
system, with the area in between eventually filling in. Heaviest
rainfall amounts will be across the southeast counties near the
deformation zone on the northwest side of the surface low and
where the PWATs will be highest. The right entrance region of an
upper-level jet streak will also be present. Not expecting any
flooding concerns outside of very poor drainage areas, just very
beneficial rainfall. Temperatures will be steady/rising slightly
overnight, not following a typical diurnal curve, then begin to
drop across the northwest as the cold front moves in.

Dry air aloft will cause precip to taper off into light
rain/drizzle tomorrow morning. Did slow down the exit of PoPs, but
moisture aloft will be exiting before the colder air arrives. Low
stratus/stratocumulus should linger for much of the day and
probably longer than models indicate, as is typical this time of
year. With strong northwest winds/cold air advection, it will be a
raw day with temperatures falling some in the afternoon, again
not following a typical diurnal curve. Winds become light
overnight, setting up good radiational cooling unless the low
clouds linger. Lows will drop well into the 20s, colder than it
has been in the last couple weeks.

Wednesday through Sunday:

Wednesday looks like the only day we will see a lot of sunshine
this week, though there may still be some cirrus clouds. Another
positively tilted trough will set up from the Great Lakes to the
Desert Southwest, with another southern stream disturbance along
the Gulf Coast. This will set up another isentropic lift
stratiform rain setup by Thursday, though there is some
uncertainty regarding how far north the rain will extend. Warm air
advection early Thursday morning is expected to be strong enough
to result in only liquid precipitation at onset. The shortwave
over the southwest CONUS will eventually move eastward while a
wave of low pressure forms in the Gulf, resulting in either
stratiform rain resuming or expanding in coverage depending on
whether a break in the rain occurs. Once again beneficial rain is
expected with the highest rain chances and amounts in the
southeast half of Central Alabama. Another shortwave this time in
northwest flow aloft may move through in the Sunday night/Sunday
timeframe, but rain chances remain low (10-20%). Temperatures will
remain below normal.

32/JDavis

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 PM CST MON DEC 1 2025

A messy aviation forecast is in store through the overnight hours
and into the day on Tuesday. Widespread rains will continue across
all of the forecast area, with heaviest rains impacting EET, MGM,
and AUO through 12z Tuesday morning and visibility restrictions
due to the heavier rainfall. In addition, ceilings will remain at
IFR or LIFR category through 12z as well, very slowly rising by
Tuesday afternoon following the passage of a cold front. Following
the cold front, winds will become gusty from the northwest
reaching 20 knots at times between 12z and 00z before diminishing
through the end of the forecast period. All terminals are
forecast to reach VFR category between 00z and 06z tonight.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Another round of soaking rainfall is expected to move across
Central Alabama this morning. 1 to 2 inches of rainfall on
average is anticipated across the southeast half of Central
Alabama. Dry weather returns by midday Tuesday through Wednesday
with MinRHs ranging from the mid 30s to lower 40s once again by
Wednesday afternoon. Additional rain chances return for Thursday
and Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     45  46  19  52 / 100  40   0   0
Anniston    47  49  25  54 / 100  50   0   0
Birmingham  43  46  26  52 / 100  30   0   0
Tuscaloosa  42  44  26  54 /  90  20   0   0
Calera      45  47  26  56 / 100  30   0   0
Auburn      48  54  29  54 / 100  50   0   0
Montgomery  52  54  28  53 / 100  30   0   0
Troy        53  55  29  55 / 100  30   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...56/GDG