746
FXUS64 KBMX 041048
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
448 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 443 AM CST THU DEC 4 2025

 - Up to 1-2 inches of rainfall is expected through Saturday,
potentially approaching 3 inches along and south of the I-85
corridor. However, no flooding impacts are expected.

 - Below average high temperatures are anticipated through Tuesday,
with the exception of Sunday being near average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1231 AM CST THU DEC 4 2025

Today through Friday

Patchy fog is possible this morning ahead of increasing rain chances
by late morning/midday. Rain will move through the area in two waves
from this morning through tonight and tomorrow morning. First, rain
will filter in after 6 am, mainly across the southern half of
Central Alabama. Maintained low chances across northern counties but
potential for rain during the morning hours is much lower than
across the south. Secondly, a larger rain mass will move in from
Mississippi during the late afternoon, overspreading most of Central
Alabama during and throughout the evening hours. Tonight will be
soggy and rain chances remain high through Friday morning,
especially across eastern and southeastern areas. Northwestern
counties should see rain chances decrease by daylight Friday.

Saturday through Wednesday

Rain chances will linger through the weekend, especially across
southern counties, as a conveyor belt of moisture moves across the
area. Temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 50s Saturday and
upper 50s to low 60s on Sunday. Rain chances will end Sunday night
into Monday morning, and Monday looks to be cool and dry across much
of the region. Monday night lows are likely to drop to near freezing
across the southeast and below freezing across central and northern
areas. Temperatures will rebound again Tuesday and Wednesday, with
highs and lows slowly moderating.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 443 AM CST THU DEC 4 2025

VFR conditions are currently in place across all terminals.
Conditions will deteriorate through the day as a swath of rain
moves in from the west. -RA is expected for all terminals through
18-20Z. MVFR ceilings are likely to accompany this first round of
rain. After a brief lull, another round of rain moves in after
00Z. Ceilings will lower to IFR/LIFR through the night as this
second round moves through. Reduced vis will be likely with any
heavier shower. Best chances for brief heavy rain will be at
MGM/AUO.

95/Castillo

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain chances increase this morning, as another system works its way
in from the northern Gulf. 1-2 inches of rainfall are expected
through Saturday, with southeastern locations approaching 3 inches.
Amounts will heavily depend on where the heaviest rainfall banding
sets up. No flooding is expected, and the only impact across the
region will be continued drought relief. Otherwise, MinRH values
will remain above 50% through Monday, and fire weather concerns will
remain limited through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     50  35  51  37 /  30  90  50  20
Anniston    50  38  52  40 /  40 100  60  30
Birmingham  50  40  51  41 /  50  90  40  30
Tuscaloosa  49  38  51  39 /  80  90  40  30
Calera      51  39  53  39 /  60  90  50  30
Auburn      49  43  54  45 /  70  90  80  60
Montgomery  49  43  54  44 /  80  90  70  60
Troy        49  41  55  44 /  90  90  80  70

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...95/Castillo