Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
406 FXUS64 KBMX 171721 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1221 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1220 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025 - There is a low (level 1 out of 5) risk of severe storms early Sunday morning for locations generally north and west of the I-65/59 corridor. A few storms will be capable of producing isolated damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph. - Medium to high (60-90%) chances of showers and storms this weekend, with the highest chances between midnight Saturday night and 1 PM on Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 1220 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025 Through Sunday Effectively no big changes to the forecast over the weekend with potential for showers and a few strong to marginally severe storms. May realign the marginal area, especially in thew southwest. Through tonight, we are still controlled by the ridge in place over the area, so another warm afternoon will continue. As this ridge moves east, a subtle shortwave will eventually slide northeast through Central Alabama. Effectively, this is going to act as a warm front, but we really do not get a large influx of increased moisture as the southerly flow will be overall weak. You can see some echoes on radar aloft with this feature in Mississippi right now. With the dry environment in place over us, we should remain dry, with just some added cirrus clouds at times. Saturday most of the daylight hours will be dry, with only increasing clouds from west to east in the afternoon. A few of the models are trying to develop a complex of showers and storms late afternoon into the early evening timeframe for the far western areas (ahead of the main line expected overnight). So besides that, timing really has not changed by a whole lot with the biggest impacts being overnight and into early Sunday morning. The system still appears to weaken as it moves east through the overnight. One thing to keep in mind with the storms that move through, drought conditions have likely caused trees to lose some of their strength so they may fall with weaker winds. No changes for Monday through Thursday. 16 Previous discussion: (Today through next Thursday) Issued at 139 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025 Today Through Sunday The ridge axis will shift east across the area today which will cause low-level winds to shift to the south-southeast this afternoon. An upper-level shortwave will also graze the Tennessee Valley which will produce an increased covering of high-level clouds today, but no rain. Expect many locations to reach the upper 80s with some reaching 90 degrees this afternoon. The southerly flow will support a slight increase in moisture tonight, and overnight temperatures will be cool, but not as cool as they have been the past several nights. Conditions during the day on Saturday will be warm and mostly sunny, but rain chances will begin increasing Saturday night as the longwave trough axis moves towards the Great Lakes Region with a cold front extending south through the Lower MS River Valley region by midnight. Showers and storms should begin arriving to our western counties after midnight Saturday night then will quickly move through the area by early Sunday afternoon. Model consensus has come in line with a more amplified trough axis which means better dynamics on the southern extent and across our forecast area. As the mid-level jet noses into the area, ~35-40 kt of eff. bulk shear will be present as a weakening QLCS moves into the area along the advancing cold front. The primary limiting factor continues to be limited instability due to the overnight time frame and weak lapse rates which will hinder updraft strength and limit the overall severe threat. A few isolated severe wind gusts will be possible across the northwestern half of the area, and perhaps a few weak rotating updrafts will be visible on radar, but the overall severe threat is low, and the activity will weaken with eastward extent. QPF values remain in the one inch or less range with highest amounts expected across our northwest. The deeper system should push the front through with no problem, and expect the rain to exit the area during the early to mid afternoon. Monday Through Thursday Fall temperatures will arrive on Monday behind the frontal passage as northwesterly flow develops. Lows in the 40s are expected Monday morning with daytime highs in the 70s. Another trough will dive southeast from Canada across the Great Lakes on Tuesday. This will push a reinforcing cold front through the forecast area which will encounter a dry airmass, so unfortunately it doesn`t appear that we will see much if any rain out of it. As such, the forecast remains rain-free through the middle of next week which will result in worsening drought conditions, but seasonal temperatures will continue behind the second frontal passage with highs in the 70s to lower 80s and lows in the 40s to lower 50s each day through Thursday. 86/Martin && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025 A VFR TAF forecast is expected for the next 24 hours as the main system still is about 36 hours away from beginning to impact the area. So we will continue basically the wind/no wind forecast for this afternoon into the evening. Winds will be a little stronger on Saturday morning around 7 to 10 knots. Some passing cirrus will be noted. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... Warm and dry conditions are expected to continue through Saturday. Minimum RH values of 35-40 percent are expected this afternoon, but moisture will begin rising tonight as a front moves towards the area. Showers and storms will move through the area Saturday night and Sunday morning, but rain amounts will be generally one inch or less, so little to no drought relief is expected. Expect light south to southeasterly 20ft winds for the next couple of days, but breezy conditions may develop on Sunday as the front moves through the area. Moisture decreases substantially by Monday, and fire weather conditions will need to be closely monitored with min RH ranging from 25-30%. Outdoor burning remains highly discouraged due to ongoing drought conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 62 85 62 74 / 0 0 70 60 Anniston 62 85 62 74 / 0 0 60 70 Birmingham 66 86 65 74 / 0 0 80 50 Tuscaloosa 65 89 65 76 / 0 0 90 40 Calera 64 88 63 76 / 0 0 80 50 Auburn 62 83 63 78 / 0 0 30 70 Montgomery 65 88 65 80 / 0 0 50 70 Troy 61 85 64 80 / 0 0 40 70 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...16 AVIATION...16