197
FXUS64 KBMX 251811
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
111 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 107 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2024

The 700mb portion of the ridge is centered just west of Central
Alabama this afternoon, and we have a very hot and dry airmass
across the area. Dewpoints have mixed efficiently into the upper 50s
to mid 60s which is resulting in RH ranging from 25 to 35 percent as
temperatures have risen into the mid 90s. Based on the trends, we`re
aiming for another afternoon of highs in the upper 90s with some
triple digit readings certainly possible amidst sunny skies.
Unfortunately, the miserable heat continues.

Short term models have really come into better agreement this
morning on a brief breakdown in the ridge tomorrow as a low to mid-
level trough moves across the region. A complex of thunderstorms is
progged to developed along a cold front over the Midwest tomorrow
morning and quickly advance south into the Midsouth region. Strong
outflow driven storms will move into northern Mississippi by midday
with additional thunderstorms expected to develop across western
portions of Central Alabama during the afternoon as moisture
increases dramatically with the trough axis. In fact, PWATs will
increase from ~1-1.25" in the morning up to ~2" by the afternoon. It
appears that convection will spread eastward, but with decreasing
intensity and coverage as we move into the later part of the day, so
still expecting hot temperatures, especially for areas generally
east of I-65.

The evolution of this thunderstorm complex and related nearby convective
development is difficult to pinpoint at the moment given the
mesoscale variability in this summertime pattern, but could see
some potential for strong winds in these storms, mainly west of
I-65 where they will be mostly outflow driven. Although progged
wind shear values are weak, if model trends continue to favor some
cold-pool driven storms across our west, then a risk of severe
storms with damaging wind potential may need to be advertised in
the forecast.

86/Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2024

Key message:

- Hot conditions return Friday through the rest of the period,
  with increasing humidity levels. Forecast heat indices are near
  105 degrees Friday and Saturday, increasing to 105 to 110
  degrees Sunday and Monday.

At least scattered showers and storms will continue Wednesday
night along convective outflows as a shortwave trough moves into
the area. This shortwave will become more positively tilted on
Thursday as ridging begins to build back eastward towards the
Lower Mississippi Valley. The progression of the trough and the
drier air aloft moving in aloft behind it seem to have slowed
slightly. The shortwave aloft and a trough at the surface should
trigger scattered showers and storms across at least the southeast
half of the area. The convection and associated cloudcover should
keep highs generally in the lower 90s, but it will be more humid
than recent days.

Strong subtropical ridging builds back over the area Friday and
Saturday. This time higher PWATs will remain over the area meaning
there will still be chances for scattered diurnal convection,
though probably not enough coverage to have any widespread impacts
on temperatures. Highs will be climbing back into the mid 90s and
dew points will be higher than they have been recently, meaning
heat indices will be around 105. The ridge retrogrades slightly
Sunday and Monday, putting Central Alabama under northwest flow
aloft. A front will attempt to approach the area, but the only
effect will actually be to increase dew points as moisture pools
south of the front. This will cause heat indices to increase to
the 105-110 range. Scattered showers and storms will remain
possible, potentially aided by the boundary to our north and weak
impulses rotating around the ridge.

32/Davis

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 107 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2024

Clear skies are in place across Central Alabama this afternoon.
Stable conditions are expected to continue through tomorrow morning
as the ridge axis shifts east over the area with some increasing
high cloud cover overnight. Flow is generally weak from the north
at around 5 kts or less.

86/Martin

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hot conditions continue today with RH values dropping into the 25
to 35 percent range. A couple spots in East Alabama may drop
below 25 percent but winds will be light. Moisture begins to
increase from the west on Wednesday, but RH values in East Alabama
will still drop into the 28 to 35 percent range. Rain-free
conditions are expected today, with chances for showers and storms
returning from the west on Wednesday. Scattered, mainly afternoon
and evening showers and storms are expected Thursday into the
weekend, with the highest coverage in the southeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     67  99  69  93 /   0  20  40  40
Anniston    69  98  71  92 /   0  20  30  40
Birmingham  74  99  72  93 /   0  40  40  40
Tuscaloosa  74  96  72  93 /   0  60  50  30
Calera      72  98  72  94 /   0  40  40  40
Auburn      72  96  73  92 /   0  20  20  50
Montgomery  71  98  72  92 /   0  40  40  60
Troy        72  97  72  92 /   0  30  30  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...86/Martin
LONG TERM....32
AVIATION...86/Martin