286
FXUS64 KBMX 021742
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1242 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1231 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025

-  There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms with
   damaging wind gusts this afternoon and evening for locations
   southeast Interstate 20.

-  There is Level 2 out of 4 risk for excessive rainfall across
   eastern and southeastern Central Alabama through this evening.
   Isolated flash flooding events are possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025

Surface analysis early this afternoon depicts a cold front draped
along the Northern Gulf coast. Showers and thunderstorms have
been forming along the boundary, where low level convergence is
maximized, through the morning. This activity is expected to
expand north through the afternoon hours as several bouts of
H85-H5 vorticity rotate around the base of an upper trough
centered across the Great Lakes region. SPC has maintained a
Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe storms across much of the
southern half of the CWA for this afternoon and evening. The
combination of passing upper level support, a stalled boundary,
and increasing instability will support isolated to scattered
storms later on today. Forecast soundings reveal an inverted-v
profile suggesting a primary threat of damaging winds today. In
addition to the severe threat, we will need to monitor for an
increasing flash flooding threat. A warm, moist airmass is in
place (GOES TPW imagery showing PWATs of 2.11") will help support
efficient rainfall product. Select forecast soundings indicate a
nearly fully saturated profile with a deep warm cloud depth which
further supports the risk of heavy rainfall. Isolated to scattered
flash flooding is likely, especially for those that receive ample
rainfall yesterday. Therefore, WPC has introduced a Slight Risk
(Level 2 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall for much of our eastern areas
through this evening. Activity is expected to diminish through
the evening hours as we lose daytime heating.

We have a nice "break" in the heat today as increased rain chances
and cloud cover will help keep heat indices in check. Sunday is
likely to feature some even cooler high temps, generally in the
mid 70s along the AL/GA border, as wedge flow gradually develops
due to a surface high sagging south along the Atlantic seaboard.
Latest guidance hints at a 50-80% chance of highs below 80F for
some tomorrow.

95/Castillo

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025

An unsettled pattern continues into next week as a longwave trough
axis remains stretched across the eastern CONUS while a stout
upper ridge builds in out west. Several disturbances will rotate
along the periphery of these features through the week, adding
increased lift across the southeast. This will ultimately lead to
increased chances for diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms.
Rainfall totals through the middle of the next week range from
0.5-1" across our NW areas to 2-3" for our SW counties. However,
this rain will not fall all at once which will help mitigate some
flooding concerns.

High temps into early next week stay on the cooler side (for August)
as wedge flow continues. High temps look to top out in the mid to
upper 70s across our eastern counties. Those further west will climb
into the 80s daily. By the middle to end of the work week, we all
warm back up into the mid to upper 80s.

95/Castillo

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025

Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop across the area
early this afternoon. Any passing storm could bring low level
ceilings and gusty winds. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail
through this evening. Opted to transition to TEMPO groups for
TSRA as the latest CAMs continue to show development across the
region. Some activity may linger a bit longer this evening at
ASN/MGM/AUO. Another round of MVFR/IFR ceilings are likely tonight
with VFR returning late tomorrow morning.

95/Castillo

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

No issues from fire weather elements are expected over the coming
days. Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected, most focused
on the afternoon to evening time frame. 20-foot winds will be
light, except variable and gusty in and near showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     69  79  64  78 /  60  50  30  40
Anniston    71  79  66  78 /  60  60  30  50
Birmingham  72  82  67  77 /  40  60  20  50
Tuscaloosa  72  86  69  81 /  30  50  20  50
Calera      72  82  67  79 /  40  70  30  50
Auburn      72  80  66  77 /  80  80  50  70
Montgomery  73  85  68  79 /  60  80  40  70
Troy        72  85  68  79 /  70  80  50  80

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...95/Castillo
LONG TERM....95/Castillo
AVIATION...95/Castillo