297
FXUS64 KBMX 221123
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
623 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 623 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026

- Minor HeatRisk will continue through the weekend. Heat indices
  are forecast to remain below 105 degrees.

- Drier air will result in less rain chances through the weekend,
  although some storms may develop across the north late Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Saturday through next Friday)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026

In the short term, decreasing dew point depressions and light
winds following earlier convection will likely support patchy fog
development around sunrise Saturday morning (20-40% probability).
As upper-level ridging builds over the weekend, increased
subsidence and drier air will temporarily lower precipitation
chances. However, latest CAMs indicate a weak shortwave riding
the ridge periphery, potentially affecting the northwest counties
late afternoon into early evening. Consequently, maintained 20-
30% rain chances after 7 PM Saturday night. High temperatures are
expected to persist in the low to mid-90s, though arriving drier
air will limit heat indices to generally 100-104 degrees.

Looking into next week, high confidence exists in a stagnant
upper-level pattern dominated by a strong ridge over the
Southwest and southern tier. While the ridge holds, moderate
confidence exists in the timing of shortwaves rotating through
the northwest flow and a moderating frontal surge, which are
expected to increase precipitation chances for the Southeast.
Periodic bouts of rain and thunderstorms are forecast to
overspread the region starting Tuesday and continuing through
Friday as moisture and instability pool along the ridge`s
periphery.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026

Patchy MVFR CIGs are expected to linger for a few hours this
morning at TCL and AUO, before generally mixing out past 22/14z.
Beyond that, confidence is high in VFR conditions for the
remainder of this TAF period.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for AUO due to a weather observation outage.

/44/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Drier air filtering into the area on Saturday will result in a
decrease in relative humidity (35 to 45%) for most locations.
However, wind speeds are expected to remain light, which should
negate any significant fire weather concerns during this period.
Moisture gradually begins to return early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     94  70  92  66 /   0  10   0  10
Anniston    92  69  91  66 /   0  10   0  10
Birmingham  93  72  92  70 /   0  20  10  10
Tuscaloosa  98  73  96  72 /  10  20  10  20
Calera      94  72  93  69 /   0  10  10  10
Auburn      91  72  91  71 /  10  10  10  10
Montgomery  96  73  96  71 /  10  10  10  10
Troy        95  71  95  70 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION.../44/