725
FXUS64 KBMX 180515
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1215 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026

- Persistent Heat: Above normal temperatures continue into this
  weekend, with high temperatures reaching as high as the middle
  90s to near 100 degrees. Take extra precautions with any
  extended or strenuous outdoor activities.

- Rain Chances: Low end rain chances return starting Friday
  afternoon continuing into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Friday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1102 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026

Not much change in the overall picture from last night. Water
vapor imagery reveals a stout upper level ridge anchored across
the southeastern US and an upper level low churning over the
Northwest. The pattern begins to change through the day Friday
and over the weekend as an inverted trough takes shape across the
Western Atlantic. This feature will shift west across Florida,
eventually into the eastern Gulf, while nudging the upper ridge
back to the west. During this time, it will likely become a
closed upper level low. This will open the door to increased rain
chances across Central Alabama. Latest CAMs hint at some very
isolated convection Friday afternoon. Most locations are likely
to remain dry as we wrap up the work week. Low-end rain chances
will initially be confined to our eastern areas but will
gradually spread across the state as a plume of deeper moisture
spreads across the region. As we head towards the middle of the
work week, the upper low deteriorates. However, ample moisture
left in place will lead to diurnally driven convection.

Temperatures look to remain warm over the coming days with highs
in the mid to upper 90s. A few locations across the western half
of the area are likely to touch 100 degrees briefly on Friday and
Saturday. Slightly drier air in place will help keep heat indices
below Heat Advisory criteria, generally in the 100-103 degree
range. Increased rain chances/cloud cover next week will knock
several degrees off our highs with temps settling into the upper
80s to mid 90s.

95/Castillo

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026

High pressure remains in place across the region leading to VFR
conditions through the next 24 hours. There may be some
increasing clouds very late in the period associated with an
upper level low retrograding southwestward off the Atlantic
Coast, but this will likely be just beyond this 24 hour window
and won`t lead to any impacts for the terminals before 06z
Saturday.

25/Owen

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather concerns remain low at this time, although
compounding effects from intensifying drought conditions may
arise. Daily MinRH through the weekend is forecast to average
between 30 to 40%. Shower and thunderstorm chances are unlikely
through Friday, but low chances will return this weekend in the
eastern portions of Central Alabama and for all by early next
week. Winds will remain light through the next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     97  72  97  70 /  10  10  30  20
Anniston    95  71  96  69 /  10  10  40  30
Birmingham  97  74  97  72 /   0  10  20  20
Tuscaloosa 100  73 100  72 /   0   0  10  10
Calera      97  73  98  70 /   0  10  30  20
Auburn      95  72  94  71 /  10  10  60  40
Montgomery  95  72  97  72 /   0   0  40  30
Troy        95  70  96  69 /   0   0  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...95/Castillo
AVIATION...25/Owen