991
FXUS64 KBMX 210548
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1248 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2024

Easterly flow remains across the area. Today we will be in more of
a subsidence zone with the tropical moisture to our east and the
weak disturbance that passed this past afternoon to our west. Can
not totally rule out a shower or two in the far north or
southeast this afternoon, then chances remain at 10 percent or
less so will continue with a dry forecast this afternoon and
tonight. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s.

On Saturday, we will see some increase in moisture across the
east. This should be enough to help trigger some showers/storms
during the peak heating of the day in the east/southeast, so went
with 20 to 30 PoPs in this area. The trend of the best moisture
remains to our east over Georgia and Florida. Highs will be in the
mid to upper 90s, so any storm that gets tall enough could
certainly be on the stronger side.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Through next Wednesday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2024

Model trends today show moisture associated with a weak
disturbance in easterly flow over the weekend will stay mostly to
our east, as it has a hard time infiltrating the slowly
retrograding upper level ridge sitting over the region. Have
trimmed back rain chances for Sunday. As heights start to fall
Monday and moisture increases, will see increased rain chances
through the end of the forecast period.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2024

VFR at most locations. There was some periods of rain at TOI, so
some fog has developed at the site. For now will only drop TOI to
IFR through sunrise. Light to calm winds overnight will increase
to 7 to 8 kts by 15 to 16z from the east. Winds decrease again
after sunset. Any middle layer clouds today will be around 6 to 8
kft and generally in the few to sct coverage.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain-free conditions will persist through tonight as easterly
winds reinforce a dry airmass. 20 foot winds of 4 to 8 mph are
expected today before becoming very light on Saturday. 20ft winds
becomes westerly Sunday, at 4 to 8 mph. Afternoon RH values
should range from 35 to 45 percent each day through Sunday. A
slight increase in moisture could yield a few isolated showers and
storms both Saturday and Sunday afternoons, generally near and
south of Interstate 85.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     93  67  96  70 /  10   0  10   0
Anniston    93  68  96  72 /  10   0  10   0
Birmingham  95  71  97  74 /  10   0  10   0
Tuscaloosa  94  70  97  73 /  10   0  10   0
Calera      95  70  97  73 /  10   0  10   0
Auburn      92  71  94  74 /  10   0  20  10
Montgomery  94  69  97  73 /  10   0  20  10
Troy        93  68  96  72 /  10   0  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...16