Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
893 FXUS64 KBMX 271824 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 124 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 124 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2025 "False Fall" will continue across the Deep South today, as cooler and drier Continental air dominates over much of the eastern CONUS. Strong surface high pressure to our north will keep surface flow from the north to northeast through the rest of the day today. Looking back at this morning`s observed lows, Birmingham broke the record low by three degrees coming in at 55, while Anniston tied their record of 53. A few spots observed upper 40s across the far northern valley locations. No doubt about it, this "cold" of an airmass is very rare for this time of the year but we`re certainly not complaining here at the weather office! Highs are on track to rise into the low to mid 80s areawide by 3pm as dewpoints mix down into the upper 40s to mid 50s. Only some high cirrus is passing overhead within the northwest flow aloft this afternoon, and those clouds will gradually thicken through the overnight hours tonight. Before the clouds thicken too much, temperatures will fall fairly quickly into the upper 50s to lower 60s after midnight. We could see temperatures actually rise a few degrees before sunrise as clouds continue to increase from the west and northwest. As the eastern CONUS trough pulls off to our north and east, we`ll see mid to upper level shortwave energy move into the region by Thursday afternoon providing synoptic lift aloft. Meanwhile, northerly to northeasterly flow at the surface will likely help to produce some isentropic upglide with 700mb moisture becoming saturated. Rain showers with perhaps a few rumbles of thunder will move into western counties Thursday afternoon, spreading eastward by the evening and overnight hours. I wouldn`t be surprised to see some radar echoes showing up along and east of I-65 a little earlier Thursday afternoon, very similar to what you would see with an overrunning precipitation event during the winter months. Some rain will take a little while to make it to the surface with drier dewpoints in the lower levels, but eventually will moisten up from top down. Based on how quickly clouds move into the area, that will affect tomorrow`s high temperature forecast which is currently ranging from the lower 80s in northwest counties to near 90 degrees in Eufaula. Rain and storms will continue to spread across the southern half of Central Alabama through Thursday night. 56/GDG && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 124 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2025 Friday will feature fairly widespread shower and storm coverage across much of Central Alabama as the mid to upper level shortwave moves southeast across the region. Most widespread rain amounts will be across the southern half of the forecast area through Friday afternoon. Cooler highs in the 70s and lower 80s can be anticipated due to the widespread rainfall and cloudcover. A surface front is expected to move south and stall near the I-20 corridor by Friday afternoon as well, so we could see a few peeks of sun in Hamilton, Oneonta, and Centre during that time. This front will quickly become diffuse by Saturday with some forecast guidance hinting of development of a surface low to our west. If this solution verifies, the surface low would move east across southern Alabama and southwest Georgia keeping high rain chances in the forecast for southern and southeastern counties in the CWA. Rain chances remain in the forecast for now during the day on Sunday, but confidence is currently lower due to disagreement in the global guidance of a mid-level system developing nearby. One key detail that the global models do agree on is that we could be looking at a prolonged period of below normal temperatures across much of the eastern CONUS by the end of next week. We`ll see if those trends hold up, but it sure would be nice to keep "False Fall" around for a little longer! 56/GDG && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 124 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2025 VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period. Northerly to northeasterly surface winds between 5 and 10 knots this afternoon will become light and variable overnight. NOTE: AMD NOT SKED has been added at TCL until further notice due to comms issues. 56/GDG && .FIRE WEATHER... We`re experiencing another day of dry weather with northerly winds. RHs have dropped into the 30s and 40s as of 1pm, with MinRH values forecast in the lower 30s and perhaps upper 20s in a few locations across western and southwest counties. Rain chances and RHs will increase on Thursday as a system moves into the region from the west. Rain chances will continue through the end of the week with minRHs increasing well above 50% by Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 56 84 60 81 / 0 20 30 30 Anniston 59 84 62 80 / 0 20 30 40 Birmingham 62 84 64 80 / 0 20 40 40 Tuscaloosa 62 85 64 80 / 0 30 50 60 Calera 61 84 64 79 / 0 30 40 60 Auburn 63 86 66 78 / 0 20 30 60 Montgomery 61 88 66 80 / 0 20 30 60 Troy 60 88 66 80 / 0 10 30 60 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...56/GDG LONG TERM....56/GDG AVIATION...56/GDG