765
FXUS64 KBMX 162308
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
608 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2025

The short-term will remain on the disturbed side of things, as
plenty of Gulf moisture keeps flowing into the region. Scattered
thunderstorms are beginning to fire, and remain through the peak
heating hours of the evening. By tomorrow, a weak trough will be
dropping down along the Mississippi River, slowly sliding east
into the evening hours. This trough ejection will coincide with
peak heating, allowing for more widespread thunderstorm chances
into the evening hours. However, just like today, the activity
should begin to diminish once the sun goes down.

Nothing has really changed in the temperatures department as well,
with afternoon highs continuing to range in the upper-80s and
low-90s, and overnight lows staying in the low-70s

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2025

The forecast will remain copy/paste through the middle of the
workweek, with diurnally driven thunderstorms likely into the
weekend. The pattern will begin to change closer to Friday, when
another trough begins to move through the Midwest. As this trough
gets closer to the East Coast, an elevated boundary will begin to
sink through the region. While no temperature chances are expected
with this boundary, it should be strong enough to put a cap on the
thunderstorms chances. Instead, the rain chances will get pushed
south, with most of the convection chances remaining below the
I-20 corridor.

Unfortunately, high pressure will begin to build in over the East
Coast by Saturday, with afternoon high temperatures beginning to
climb. By this time next week, we could be looking at highs area-
wide in the low to mid-90s.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move through the region
over the next couple of hours. Have prevailed -TSRA at BHM/EET/ASN
with VCSH at TCL/MGM as activity has already passed through. Low
level stratus is expected to develop area wide by 09-10Z with VFR
returning by mid morning. Went ahead an introduced fog with this
update. Best chances for fog will come for those that received
sufficient rainfall today. Will likely need amendments once the
fog begins to develop. Another round of convection is in store
tomorrow afternoon so have include PROB30 groups for all terminals
during the afternoon hours.

NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until
further notice due to comms issues.

95/Castillo

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A disturbed pattern will remain across the area, with showers and
thunderstorms remaining in the forecast through Friday. Given the
moist airmass overhead, MinRH values will remain over 50% during
this timeframe as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     69  87  69  89 /  30  80  40  60
Anniston    71  86  71  88 /  30  70  30  50
Birmingham  71  86  72  88 /  40  80  30  60
Tuscaloosa  71  86  73  89 /  40  80  30  60
Calera      71  86  72  87 /  40  80  30  60
Auburn      71  87  71  89 /  30  60  20  40
Montgomery  72  89  72  90 /  20  70  20  60
Troy        71  89  71  91 /  20  60  10  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...95/Castillo