Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
936 FXUS64 KBMX 302248 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 548 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 158 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025 This afternoon, there is only a small chance of a shower across the SE counties with a linger surface boundary. Otherwise, we have pleasant conditions across much of C AL with decreasing cloudiness from the NW to the SE as drier air filters into the area. There is a temperature gradient today due to the higher cloud cover in the SE. However, readings will be more uniform on Sunday with less overall cloud cover and no rain expected. 08 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 158 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025 No major changes were made to the extended. Look for only low rain chances for Sunday night through Tuesday across the NW as we are scraped by upper disturbances with only meager available moisture. By midweek for Tuesday night into Wednesday, a better shortwave should move across AL as a surface low system moves EWD across the Deep South. This will give C AL its best rain chances of the week. Beyond that for the remainder of the extended, guidance is suggesting another reinforcing front to move through the area that should help to keep the temperatures down some with somewhat cooler air expected for next weekend. 08 Previous long-term discussion: (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 125 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025 Below average (but still warm) temperatures are expected to continue into next week with the pattern characterized by somewhat of an omega block centered over the Desert Southwest. Rain chances will be influenced early in the week by a low-level shortwave feature embedded within the northwest flow which will track from the Upper Plains towards the Midsouth region by Tuesday. We could see some showers across the northern part of the forecast area during this time, but most of Central Alabama will remain dry. Rain chances will increase area-wide by the middle of the week as the shortwave moves across the region. PoPs are currently around 30-40%, but could increase once the timing of this disturbance is narrowed down. Models are still depicting a more organized trough and frontal passage by the end of the week which will help to reinforce the unusually "cool" and drier airmass that we`ve been experiencing over the last week. 86/Martin && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 544 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025 VFR conditions are anticipated almost area-wide for the entire TAF period. The hold outs are KMGM and KAUO, where low CIGS are possible past 31/10z. However, skies should mix back into VFR by 31/16z. /44/ && .FIRE WEATHER... MinRH values will range from 40-45% in the northwest to 50-60% in the southeast on Sunday with no precipitation expected. Only minimal rain chances are expected for Monday and Tuesday across the northwest counties. Another disturbance will bring rain chances to the area by midweek. Wednesday should bring our highest chances for wetting rains this week with rainfree conditions returning heading into next weekend. Winds will remain relatively light from the east-northeast over the next couple of days. There are no fire weather concerns at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 62 87 63 84 / 0 10 0 10 Anniston 63 85 64 83 / 0 10 0 10 Birmingham 66 88 66 85 / 0 10 0 10 Tuscaloosa 66 90 67 88 / 0 0 0 10 Calera 65 87 65 85 / 0 10 0 10 Auburn 65 84 65 82 / 0 10 0 10 Montgomery 65 87 66 86 / 0 10 0 10 Troy 65 84 65 84 / 0 10 0 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....08 AVIATION.../44/