346
FXUS64 KBMX 151701
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1201 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

...New LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1141 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025

Subsidence in the wake of yesterday`s convection has produced a
moisture deficit south of Interstate 20, which is clearly evident
by the lack of cumulus development on visible satellite imagery.
However, a corridor of higher PWAT values is slowly advecting
eastward across Mississippi in the presence of 10 to 15 kt flow in
the 850-700mb layer. Thunderstorms are already ongoing and should
persist as they move into West Alabama this afternoon. Across the
remainder of our forecast area, a slow moistening trend should
take place through the afternoon with the influence of broad
southwesterly low-level flow. Due to yesterday`s activity, the
diurnal convective cycle will be delayed for those areas where
PWAT values are currently relatively lower. However, convective
development to our southwest is expected to produce outflow
boundaries that will enhance or generate new development across
the our area during the late afternoon and for a few hours after
sunset.

Shower and thunderstorm activity should diminish after midnight
and remain limited through the late morning hours on Monday. This
will change during afternoon on Monday with the approach of a
500mb trough over the Lower Mississippi River Valley, which will
provide synoptic support and focus for thunderstorm development
particularly across the northwestern half of our area.

87/Grantham

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025

The forecast for the long term period has changed very little
since the update on Saturday night. The previous discussion below
is still valid.

87/Grantham

Previous long-term discussion:
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 946 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025

Monday night through Wednesday, high pressure will be situated to
the east of the state, and another high pressure over the
southwestern CONUS. Models are in agreement that a weak trough
will be just strong enough to reach down into the deep south
between the two highs. Southwesterly flow around the high to our
east will keep PW values at max for this time of year, with
enough warm air advection for heat indices to reach the mid to
upper 90s. Tuesday and Wednesday will follow a diurnal pattern,
with thunderstorms developing in the afternoon and lasting through
the early night. Strong instabilities and weak shear, storms will
likely pulse with downdrafts and strong winds possible in any
storm that strengthens and then collapses. A surface low will
generate a weak mid level jet, so activity especially in the north
could have a little bit of movement. Any storms that train over
the same areas could produce a flooding threat with those high PW
values.

By Tuesday evening, a low pressure should develop over the
northern plains and move east. Models are uncertain how far south
this low will move, whether it`s across the Great Lakes or over
the TN Valley. This would impact how much wind and storm coverage
would be over the state. With a higher chance the low could move
south of the Great Lakes, will use this solution for timing.
Thursday, the trough will sweep through the TN Valley, with
thunderstorms expected again in the afternoon, lingering into the
early night. Low level winds should then shift to more of a
westerly direction, with PW values decreasing slightly.

Friday through the rest of the forecast, winds will be out of the
west, with warm and moist air slowly advected into the region.
The high pressure over the southwest will strengthen and move east
over the southeastern states. From here, a few models are trying
to hold on to more diurnal development, with others suggesting
limited coverage and enough stability provided from that high.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025

VFR conditions should prevail for most of TAF period, though
disruptions from showers and thunderstorms appear possible mainly
in the 22-03z time frame. KTCL is the most likely area to
experience thunderstorm activity before 22z, possibly as early at
19z.

NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until
further notice due to comms issues.

87/Grantham

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MinRH values are forecast to remain above 50 percent for the next
several days as very moist air mass remains in place over the
region. Daily rain chances will remain elevated as well. 20 ft
winds will be from the south to southwest at 5 to 10 mph through
at least Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     87  68  88  69 /  50  40  70  50
Anniston    86  70  88  71 /  50  40  60  50
Birmingham  87  70  88  71 /  50  40  60  50
Tuscaloosa  87  72  89  73 /  60  40  70  40
Calera      87  71  88  72 /  50  40  60  50
Auburn      87  72  88  72 /  40  30  50  30
Montgomery  90  72  90  72 /  50  40  60  30
Troy        90  70  90  71 /  50  30  60  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87/Grantham
LONG TERM....87/Grantham
AVIATION...87/Grantham