241
FXUS64 KBMX 302301
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
601 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 601 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026

- Dry conditions and comfortable mornings will persist through
  Thursday.

- Look for increasing chances of showers and storms starting
  Friday through Monday, with the best chances Saturday night
  through Sunday areawide. Rainfall amounts of generally 1 to 2
  inches, locally higher are possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026

The warming trend will persist through Friday. While humidity
levels will remain relatively low, they will be higher than those
observed this afternoon as moisture begins advecting from the
Gulf. Positioned along the ridge, Central Alabama will experience
south to southeasterly low-level flow through the remainder of
the week, supporting onshore moisture return and steadily
increasing dew points. Although moisture must recover further
before significant precipitation can occur, low rain chances
return late Thursday afternoon across the southern counties.

More substantial rain chances are delayed until late this weekend
as an approaching frontal system slows. Consequently, the highest
precipitation chances are expected Saturday night through Sunday.
WPC has placed the area in a 5 to 15% risk of exceeding flash
flood criteria late Saturday through Sunday as a 250mb jet streak
slides to our north and puts northwest Alabama in the entrance
side of the jet.

Confidence is medium-to-high that the front will stall or become
slow-moving, keeping rain chances elevated into early next week.
On Sunday, the proximity of the front will help usher in more
Gulf moisture as a weak shortwave slides into southern Alabama
ahead of the front. Total rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are
most likely across much of Central Alabama between Friday and
Monday, though locally higher amounts remain possible. Increased
cloud cover and widespread precipitation will moderate
temperatures over the weekend. Guidance suggests sufficient upper-
level support will eventually push the surface boundary through
on Monday, ushering in cooler and drier conditions for the first
half of next week.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026

Under ridging aloft and at the surface, VFR conditions are
expected for the entire TAF period.

/44/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry weather will persist through Thursday with light winds. This
afternoon minimum RH values are in the upper 20s through the 30s
percent range across the region. Humidity values will increase on
Thursday with values in the upper 30s to mid 40s, with 50s and
low 60s on Friday as southerly flow returns. Rain chances return
late this week and increase over the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     59  92  67  92 /   0   0   0  20
Anniston    61  91  68  91 /   0   0   0  20
Birmingham  65  91  69  92 /   0   0   0  20
Tuscaloosa  64  94  70  94 /   0   0   0  20
Calera      65  91  69  92 /   0   0   0  20
Auburn      66  88  69  89 /   0   0   0  30
Montgomery  67  92  70  92 /   0   0   0  40
Troy        66  90  69  90 /   0  10   0  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION.../44/