207
FXUS64 KBMX 010522
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1222 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026

- Widespread Rainfall: Showers and storms return to the forecast
  by Friday, with the best chances Saturday through Sunday.
  Rainfall amounts will generally be between 1 to 2 inches, with
  locally higher possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Thursday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026

Moisture will continue to stream into the region via a stiff
south wind from the Gulf, with dry conditions persisting the next
few days. This gradual moisture return into the region will be
the precursor to our upcoming rain event this weekend, as PWAT
values still need to climb in order to meet our current QPF
forecast. The other caveat here will be the placement of the
stalled front through the weekend, with slight deviations
resulting in substantial changes in overall rainfall amounts.

At this time, confidence is still medium that the approaching
cold front will stall in a very favorable location north of the
state, resulting in widespread 1-2 inches of rainfall through
Monday. The bulk of this rainfall will fall between Saturday and
Sunday, when a weak shortwave moves inland from the Gulf Coast.
Given the moderate to heavy nature of this anticipated rain,
locally higher amounts above two inches are very likely, with
current probabilities of exceedance near 50% for most of the
state. As previously mentioned though, a good chunk of these
higher rainfall amounts depend on location of the stalled cold
front. By Monday, a deepening trough over eastern Canada will
kick this cold front back into gear, pushing it through the
region by early Tuesday morning. This will allow cool, dry air
back into the area, ushering in another period of much more
seasonable temperatures through the middle of next week.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026

As high pressure slides eastward, southeasterly winds will
increase slightly to around 7-8kts Thursday afternoon. Moisture
will also begin to increase, but chances remain very high (80-
100%) that conditions will remain VFR through the period. The
only possible exception would be AUO as low clouds and fog move
westward across Georgia early Thursday morning, but chances of
these impacting the terminal are low (10-20%). There will also be
a low (20%) chance of a shower in the vicinity of MGM Thursday
afternoon, but this probability is too low to mention in the TAF.

32/JDavis

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry weather will persist through Thursday with light winds. This
afternoon minimum RH values are in the upper 20s through the 30s
percent range across the region. Humidity values will increase on
Thursday with values in the upper 30s to mid 40s, with 50s and
low 60s on Friday as southerly flow returns. Rain chances return
late this week and increase over the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     92  66  92  68 /   0   0  30  30
Anniston    91  67  91  68 /   0   0  30  40
Birmingham  91  69  91  70 /   0   0  30  40
Tuscaloosa  94  69  94  69 /  10  10  30  30
Calera      92  68  91  69 /   0   0  30  40
Auburn      88  69  88  69 /   0   0  40  40
Montgomery  92  70  91  70 /  10  10  50  40
Troy        90  69  89  69 /  20  10  60  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...32/JDavis