Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
442 FXUS64 KBMX 162303 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 603 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 602 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025 - Medium to high (40-80%) chances of showers and storms this weekend, with the highest chances between midnight Saturday night and 1 PM on Sunday. - Probabilities for any severe storms remain low at this time due to weak instability, but will be monitored. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 1259 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025 Overall there is not much of a change in terms to the timing and reasoning of the systems over the weekend and first of next. It does appear that the activity will be weakening as it enters our section of the earth. Current consensus places the beginning of the showers and storms into the far northwest after midnight and push through by late afternoon. The trend continues to be slower and less as each model run comes in. Severe potential remains on the low side right now as the main dynamics are fading as it approaches the area and then re-intensify as the system leaves the area Sunday afternoon. So this makes the timing and placement really critical. Any faster and we could see severe potential in the northwest and any slower and we could see severe potential in the southeast. Trends also continue to limit precipitation across the area, with the area in the highest drought area, seeing the least amount of rain. 16 Previous discussion: (Today through next Wednesday) Issued at 237 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025 Through Friday Night The ridge axis centered over the Midsouth region will begin to weaken and shift eastward today as a deep, longwave trough begins to eject from the Desert Southwest towards the Upper Plains. This will support one of the warmest days this week with many locations reaching the upper 80s this afternoon, and perhaps a few spots in the southwest cracking the 90 degree mark. We`ll be in a similar situation on Friday as the ridge axis centers directly over the area. There will be an increase in high-level cloud cover Friday afternoon as an embedded shortwave lifts from southern Texas to the Lower MS River Valley region, but the airmass will still be very dry, so not expecting any precip out of it. Moisture will begin to slowly rise Friday night as low-level winds shift to the south-southeast. Saturday Through Wednesday As the ridge axis shifts east of the area on Saturday, low-level flow will shift to the southwest with westerly flow in the mid- levels. This should support a continued and gradual moistening of the airmass as the positively tilted longwave trough continues its progression from the Plains towards the Midwest region. A surface low is expected to develop near the Great Lakes region Saturday afternoon with an associated cold front extending southwest through the ArkLaTex, supporting a risk for severe storms to our west. The frontal progression and its associated rainfall has slowed down slightly in the latest model runs, but is still generally on track to reach northwestern portions of Central Alabama late Saturday night into Sunday morning, moving east through the area during the day on Sunday. The activity should begin to exit the area by early Sunday afternoon. There are model differences regarding the strength of residual ridging over the Gulf which may suppress the southern extent of the trough axis, and the more robust dynamics, to our north. Factor this in with poor low-level lapse rates and weak instability during the overnight hours, and any potential for severe storms for our area is marginal at worst. A few storms may be able to tap into the 30-35 kts of bulk shear to produce isolated strong wind gusts, but largely expecting activity to remain sub-severe. It`s plausible a Marginal risk could be introduced later for western portions of the area, but I don`t see an urgent need to message a severe threat at this time given the limiting factors. Otherwise, QPF amounts seem to be decreasing, but will also be dependent on the strength of the trough. NBM probabilities are still indicating medium chances of exceeding one inch of rainfall across northern portions of the area, but amounts will be less for our most drought-stricken areas. High pressure will quickly build back over the area on Monday, so expect drought conditions to continue expanding as we head into next week. Models are indicating a weak frontal passage on Tuesday, but the dry air may limit any meaningful precip from occurring. If anything, it should help to reinforce a more Fall- like temperature profile. 86/Martin && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 602 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Calm or variable winds overnight will become southeasterly during the day on Friday. Mostly clear skies will prevail for much of the period before high clouds begin to spread in from the west late Friday afternoon. 56/GDG && .FIRE WEATHER... Warm and dry conditions are expected to continue through tomorrow and much of Saturday. Minimum RH values of 25-35 percent are expected this afternoon before a moistening trend begins on Friday. A front will move through the area Saturday night into Sunday, but associated rain amounts will be generally less than one inch, so little to no drought relief is expected. 20 foot winds will remain light for the next few days, but gusty conditions may develop on Sunday as the front moves through the area. We will need to watch next Monday as Min RH levels may drop into the lower 20s, however winds will be questionable in regards to strength. Outdoor burning remains highly discouraged due to ongoing drought conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 50 84 59 85 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 54 83 60 83 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 58 85 64 85 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 59 89 64 88 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 58 87 63 87 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 57 82 59 83 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 58 86 63 87 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 57 84 59 84 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...16 AVIATION...56/GDG