Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
868 FXUS64 KBMX 192337 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 537 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 526 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025 - Low to medium chances of dense fog tonight in southern portions of Central Alabama. - Warm conditions with near-record highs expected Thursday. - A cold front will bring showers and a few storms to the area on Friday and Saturday, but severe weather is not expected. - A cold front will bring showers and storms on next Tuesday, with a low probability of strong to severe weather. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 1200 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025 Behind a weak surface low and remnant warm front across central Alabama, there will be broad ridging over the northern Gulf. This will contribute to abnormally warm conditions across the region through Thursday. Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. With the position of the more moist airmass across the southern half of the area, there is a medium probability of patchy to dense fog after 3 am for areas generally along and south of I-85. A Dense Fog Advisory may be needed this evening. A shortwave should eject across the Plains on Friday with the Gulf ridge weakening. Another surface low will track from the Ozarks and reach the Mid-Atlantic region by Saturday. Periodic showers and a few thunderstorms will arrive in our west Friday afternoon, continuing off and on through Saturday as a weak cold front moves through the area. Poor instability and weakening upper-level support should limit the severe threat for the weekend. High pressure will build back over the area on Sunday and rain chances will decrease as the cold front moves east of the area. Temperatures will remain above average heading into next week. The pattern looks to remain active with a cutoff low shifting east across the Four Corners and towards the Southern Plains on Monday. This system, remains more organized within the model scenarios and will be worth monitoring over the next few days for potential strong to severe storms on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Right now models indicate the concern for stronger activity, but timing differences are resulting in low confidence of exact locations and time of the strongest activity.16 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 526 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025 For central Alabama TAF sites, ceiling forecast remains a bit problematic. Cloud bases were able to get above 3000 ft in most spots before dark today. Computer model guidance is still not in the best agreement in what happens from here over the next 24 hours. I hedged my bets on the model that more correctly predicted the lower ceilings hanging on through the day today. That model suggests ceilings not straying much from where they are now until 1400 or 1500 UTC tomorrow. The fog formation forecast is even more uncertain. If it happens, it should be limited to MGM and/or AUO, but I do wonder if the ongoing strato-cu cloud deck might suppress fog formation that far north. We`ll keep an eye on things. /61/ && .FIRE WEATHER... RH values will remain well above critical thresholds for the next few days. Area-wide rain chances return to the forecast on Friday and next Tuesday. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1200 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025 Record High Temperatures: November 19: KBHM: 80/1985 KEET: 75/1999 KANB: 81/1963 KTCL: 80/1981 KMGM: 84/1906 November 20: KBHM: 79/1896 KEET: 75/2007 KANB: 78/1979 KTCL: 80/1949 KMGM: 81/1900 November 21: KEET: 77/2011 KANB: 77/2011 KTCL: 79/1965 KMGM: 83/2011 November 22: KBHM: 79/1900 KEET: 77/2010 KANB: 79/1963 KTCL: 79/1979 KMGM: 81/2011 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 56 79 56 75 / 0 10 10 40 Anniston 59 80 58 75 / 0 10 10 30 Birmingham 60 80 60 74 / 0 10 10 50 Tuscaloosa 60 81 58 75 / 0 0 10 60 Calera 58 82 57 76 / 0 0 0 50 Auburn 59 79 57 77 / 0 0 0 20 Montgomery 58 81 57 79 / 0 0 0 30 Troy 56 81 56 79 / 0 0 0 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...16 AVIATION.../61/