Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
721 FXUS64 KBMX 051717 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1117 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1117 AM CST THU NOV 5 2026 - Fog: There`s low to medium chances for patchy dense fog in valleys and along rivers late tonight into early Friday morning. - Frost and Freeze Potential: Medium confidence in frost or freeze development Saturday Night/Sunday morning and again Sunday night/Monday morning across large portions of Central AL. Low temperatures will drop into the low to mid 30s both mornings. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1117 AM CST THU NOV 5 2026 The main frontal boundary is slowly moving out of Central AL today with only isolated showers remaining across the far southeastern counties as we go through the day. Skies will be clearing as the drier air slowly filters into the region. The exception may come late tonight into early tomorrow morning when patchy dense fog may develop again, mainly near rivers or low- lying valleys that saw a lot of rainfall yesterday. A secondary trough is expected to swing through on Friday bringing a reinforcing shot of drier air as we go into the weekend. The main story here will be some of the coldest temperatures we`ve seen so far this Fall across much of the area. Overnight lows Saturday into Sunday morning are expected to drop into the low to mid 30s for most of the area, leading to the potential for frost and freeze conditions. Right now, there`s at least a 70-75% chance for frost development across much of the northern counties and through the Black Belt region. The probability of freezing conditions in those areas drops to around 20-30%. Surface high pressure will build in over the weekend with this cooler air and remain in place through at least Monday. From there, a cut-off upper low will slowly slide through Texas and into the Gulf States through the middle part of next week. Some guidance tries to develop some rainfall with this, but moisture return ahead of this system looks minimal at best, so we`ll hold off on including rain in the forecast through mid-week. 25/Owen && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1117 AM CST THU NOV 5 2026 VFR conditions are expected across the sites through the remainder of today as the dry air behind the departing front builds into the region. The frontal boundary is still lingering across the Southeastern counties, so AUO may keep some higher MVFR CIGs for another hour or so before it becomes VFR. Otherwise, generally light winds and mostly clear skies are expected. TCL, EET, and MGM may see some patchy dense fog between 10-14z due to high soil moisture and/or proximity to rivers, but these should be fairly localized. 25/Owen && .FIRE WEATHER... Generally light northerly to northeasterly winds are expected through the remainder of the day as the departing front continues to slowly move out of our area. Another shot of drier air will move into the region on Saturday, dropping MinRHs to 40-50% through the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 75 46 74 40 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 76 49 74 43 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 74 49 73 44 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 76 47 75 44 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 75 51 73 45 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 77 59 75 48 / 30 10 0 0 Montgomery 78 56 76 48 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 79 58 75 47 / 20 10 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...25/Owen AVIATION...25/Owen