415
FXUS64 KBMX 151742
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1242 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026

- Persistent Heat: Above-normal temperatures continue into this
  weekend, with high temperatures reaching as high as the mid to
  upper 90s. Take extra precautions with any extended or strenuous
  outdoor activities.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026

Over the next few days, an anomalous ridge of high pressure will
continue to limit opportunities for showers and thunderstorms
(nil to very low chances) while prolonging above-normal
temperatures, reaching near record daily levels for a few
locations.

From this weekend into next week, forecast models suggest that
while the center/axis of the ridge of high pressure remains
nearby, on its flank will exist a westward-drifting, upper-level
low near Florida and a shortwave trough/front over the Midwest.
These features may yield at least a modest uptick in shower and
thunderstorm chances for parts of central Alabama from Sunday
onward. At this time, the prospects of this being a pattern that
eases our (re)intensifying drought are low.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026

High pressure will promote VFR conditions today and Wednesday,
featuring daytime fair-weather cumulus and east to southeast
winds maxing between 5-10 knots. There is a low (10% or less)
chance for a stray shower or thunderstorm.

AMD NOT SKED is appended at AUO due to missing observations.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

While fire weather concerns remain low at this time, compounding
effects from intensifying drought conditions may arise. Daily
MinRH through the weekend is forecast to average between 30-
40 percent. Shower and thunderstorm chances are nil to very low
over the next few days though a modest increase may occur for
some areas starting early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     72  95  68  95 /   0  10   0   0
Anniston    71  93  67  94 /  10  10   0   0
Birmingham  73  94  71  95 /   0  10   0   0
Tuscaloosa  75  97  71  97 /   0  10   0   0
Calera      73  95  69  95 /   0  10   0   0
Auburn      73  90  67  91 /  10  10   0   0
Montgomery  75  94  68  93 /   0  10   0   0
Troy        73  93  66  92 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...89^GSatterwhite
AVIATION...89^GSatterwhite