Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
653 FXUS64 KBMX 311928 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 228 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 225 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025 This afternoon, upper disturbances through the NW flow interacting with some lingering weak surface boundaries will allow for some isolated shower activity this afternoon into Monday. Many will see only hot and dry conditions continue through the short term. With the lower dew points of late, humidity has not been as much of a player in the weather. While this activity should not be enough to cancel any Labor Day outdoor activities, you may have a brief passing shower to contend with at times. 08 && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 225 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025 No major changes were made to the extended. Look for only low to moderate rain chances for Monday night through Tuesday across the NW as we are scraped by upper disturbances with only meager available moisture. By midweek for Tuesday night into Wednesday, a better shortwave should move across AL as a surface low system moves EWD across the Deep South. This will give C AL its best rain chances of the week. Beyond that for the remainder of the extended, guidance continues to indicate a reinforcing front to move through the area Thursday (minimal rain chances) and possibly again on Saturday. These two fronts should help to keep the temperatures down some with a somewhat cooler/not as hot or humid airmass expected for next weekend. 50s dew points are possible behind the second system for many by Sunday. 08 Previous long-term discussion: (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1256 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025 Two shortwaves will pass through the area during the week with the first wave producing increasing rain chances from north to south on Tuesday night through Wednesday. The second, more organized, system and an associated cold front will track across the area in the Thursday to Friday timeframe. Moisture will be lacking behind the first shortwave, so not expecting much coverage of rain with the frontal passage. Dry, post-frontal air will surge southward by the weekend and afternoon dewpoints look to return to the 50s with humidity trending much lower. Temperatures will remain warm but below or near average with highs in the mid to upper 80s. 86/Martin && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 102 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025 Look for some fair weather cumulus and cirrus today with VFR TAFs expected for the next 24 hours. Light/variable winds should be noted for all but MGM/AUO. For these winds will be ERLY 6-9kts (maybe a few gusts during the afternoon MGM) with mixing. While there are low rain chances in the forecast, chances are too low to mention at any of the sites ATTM. Any convection should be isolated. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... MinRH values will range from 40-45% in the northwest to 50-60% in the southeast this afternoon with only isolated rain chances expected. Minimal rain chances continue for Monday with chances increasing some for Tuesday across the northwest counties. Another disturbance will bring rain chances to the area by midweek. Wednesday should bring our highest chances for wetting rains this week with rainfree conditions returning heading into next weekend. Winds will remain relatively light variable to east-northeast over the next couple of days. There are no fire weather concerns at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 65 84 62 83 / 20 20 10 20 Anniston 65 83 62 84 / 20 20 10 10 Birmingham 68 86 65 86 / 10 20 20 20 Tuscaloosa 68 88 66 87 / 10 20 10 30 Calera 67 86 64 86 / 20 20 10 20 Auburn 65 83 63 84 / 10 10 0 0 Montgomery 65 87 63 88 / 10 10 0 10 Troy 65 86 61 86 / 0 10 0 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....08/86/Martin AVIATION...08