313
FXUS64 KBMX 261925
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
225 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 111 PM CDT WED JUN 26 2024

Contrary to much of the 12Z guidance, a large coverage of showers
and thunderstorms have already developed across much of central
and eastern Mississippi and into western portions of central
Alabama. Once the cu field began developing this morning, it
didn`t take long for rain to start falling. This activity is being
driven by a large increase in moisture associated with an
approaching trough axis and cold front over the Midsouth region.
There`s currently a moisture gradient over the area, and there`s
still some drier air across the eastern half where dewpoints have
once again mixed down into the lower to mid 60s. However, moisture
will advect eastward with propagation of the trough, so expect
further area-wide development of convection through the afternoon
with the highest chance for rain focused generally along and west
of I-65. This rain should give us some relief from the heat, but
not soon enough as most areas have already reached the mid to
upper 90s. Per RAP mesoanalysis, MUCAPE is around 3000-4000 J/kg
in our west where dewpoints are in the lower 70s. While shear
values are rather weak, some strong downbursts may produce
damaging winds, and storms could also produce torrential downpours
with PWATs around 2".

There`s been an increasing signal of scattered showers and storms
continuing overnight and into tomorrow as the cold front and strong
PVA move southward into the area. Some hi-res models are even
resolving an MCV-like feature over the area early tomorrow
morning which would further support additional rain and
thunderstorms. So luckily, the odds at receiving beneficial rain
seem to be improving for the next 24 hours. The scattered to
numerous showers and cloudy skies will keep temperatures in the
80s tomorrow.

86/Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT WED JUN 26 2024

Most likely period of greater thunderstorm coverage during the
long term will come over the weekend (especially Sunday), as the
southern Plains upper ridge retreats just far enough west to allow
a shortwave trough to come through our area. This shortwave
passage is likely to be accompanied plenty of storms, and likely
POPs seem justified.

Beyond Sunday, a dry low level airmass briefly builds in before
the upper ridge recenters itself over the southeast. This results
in more mid/upper 90s degree heat, with a non-zero percent chance
at triple digits.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 111 PM CDT WED JUN 26 2024

Convection will spread eastward across the area this afternoon as a
cold front moves towards the region. Added TEMPOs at most TAF sites
for TSRA with PROB30s continuing overnight. Ceilings are expected to
plummet overnight with IFR conditions developing as early as
07-08Z.

86/Martin

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Moisture and chances for showers and storms increase across West
Alabama through tonight, while RH values in East Alabama will
still drop into the 25 to 35 percent range. Scattered, mainly
afternoon and evening showers and storms are expected Thursday
into the weekend, with the highest coverage in the southeast. RH
values will stay above 45 percent in most areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     70  88  69  92 /  40  40  10  40
Anniston    72  89  72  91 /  40  50  10  40
Birmingham  72  89  73  93 /  40  40  10  40
Tuscaloosa  71  88  72  92 /  50  40  10  30
Calera      73  89  73  93 /  40  50  10  40
Auburn      73  89  73  90 /  20  60  20  50
Montgomery  73  90  73  92 /  40  60  20  60
Troy        72  89  71  92 /  30  60  30  70

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...86
LONG TERM..../61/
AVIATION...86