858
FXUS64 KBMX 180248
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
948 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 947 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2025

 - There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms this
   afternoon and evening across all of central Alabama. The
   primary threat is damaging wind gusts.

 - There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms
   Thursday afternoon and evening for part of central Alabama.
   The primary threat is damaging wind gusts.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 947 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2025

No significant changes needed to the forecast this evening. Only
a few minor adjustments to account for temp and PoP trends.

95/Castillo

Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 115 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2025

A subtle 500mb trough axis is contributing to weak southwesterly
shear across Alabama today while diurnal heating and low 70s dew
points are supporting a moderately unstable air mass. A few
thunderstorms could reach severe threshold this afternoon and
evening with the primary threat being damaging wind gusts, of
which will be most likely or persistent with clustered activity.
Flow aloft weakens on Wednesday, though the same diurnally
unstable air mass will exist, supporting scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 115 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2025

A 500mb trough swinging across the Midwest on Thursday may provide
a corridor of modest shear across northeast Alabama as conditions
become more unstable area-wide through the day. In the area of
weak shear, storms may reach severe threshold with the primary
threat being damaging wind gusts.

A ridging pattern will then take hold for several days. The
coverage of daily showers and thunderstorms should decrease,
though not vacate the region, while temperatures and the risk for heat
stress rise.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2025

Afternoon convection is beginning to wane with showers lingering
across the region for the next couple of hours. Another round of
MVFR/IFR ceilings are expected between 09-13Z areawide. Have also
introduced a mention of MVFR vis as there is a moderate chance for
fog to develop across areas that saw sufficient rain today. VFR
returns by mid morning with another round of afternoon convection
in store Wednesday afternoon. Opted for a PROB30 for -TSRA for now
to account for the large time window.

NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until
further notice due to comms issues.

95/Castillo

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A disturbed pattern will remain across the area, with showers and
thunderstorms remaining in the forecast through the weekend.
Given the moist airmass overhead, MinRH values will remain over
50% during this timeframe as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     69  88  70  87 /  40  60  20  90
Anniston    71  88  72  86 /  40  50  20  80
Birmingham  72  88  72  88 /  40  50  20  80
Tuscaloosa  72  89  73  88 /  30  50  20  80
Calera      72  88  72  87 /  30  50  20  80
Auburn      72  88  72  88 /  20  40  10  60
Montgomery  72  90  72  90 /  20  60  10  70
Troy        71  90  71  90 /  20  50  10  70

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...95/Castillo
LONG TERM....89^GSatterwhite
AVIATION...95