828
FXUS64 KBMX 170538
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1238 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2026

- Heat: Major to Extreme HeatRisk is expected to persist through
  the beginning of the work week. Heat indices are forecast
  between 105 to 113 degrees. An Extreme Heat Warning is now in
  effect for Monday.

- Isolated Severe Storms: Portions of the region are under a
  Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather Monday afternoon
  and evening. Damaging winds are the primary hazard with any
  strong to severe storm activity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Monday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026

Heat index values will be at their highest today, as upper-level
ridging maintains a firm grasp across a large swath of the
southeastern United States. The existing Heat Advisory has been
upgraded to an Extreme Heat Warning for today, as heat index
values will climb above 110 degrees for a large portion of
central Alabama. Thankfully, both temperatures and dew points may
drop a degree or two into Tuesday, as the upper-level ridge
starts to shift west. This would allow for heat index values to
fall, dropping the region back into Heat Advisory criteria
through Wednesday.

Once the ridge slides to the west and reestablishes itself, this
will allow for the region to come under the influence of a trough
over the Midwest. As we get closer to Thursday, a weak shortwave
and surface boundary will skirt the area, allowing for better
rain chances into the weekend. This shortwave will also allow for
the trough to drop even farther south, which should drop our
temperatures a few degrees, especially north. Given the increased
cloud cover, this trend will continue into the weekend as well.
While afternoon highs will still range in the low to mid-90s,
there`s medium confidence in us no longer needing heating products
into the weekend as this trough becomes the main weather feature
in the region.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2026

VFR conditions are expected (>95% chance) outside of any
thunderstorms during this TAF period. Isolated to scattered
showers and storms will develop (20-30% coverage) with daytime
heating late Monday afternoon. PROB30 mentions are included for
TSRA at all sites except AUO. Similar PROB30 mentions will
persist into the evening hours at the northern terminals due to a
nearby surface trough. Winds will be out of the west at 5 to
8 kts, with higher erratic gusts near any thunderstorms or
outflow boundaries.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for AUO due to a weather observation outage.

32/JDavis

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions will continue, with MinRH values dropping into the
35 to 45 percent across western and southwestern counties. Winds
will remain light through the period. Look for isolated to
scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms through the next
several days. Elevated fire weather concerns will remain low over
the next five days, but may begin to increase if rain-free
conditions persist.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden    100  75  95  69 /  30  30   0   0
Anniston    97  74  93  69 /  30  20   0   0
Birmingham  98  76  94  72 /  30  30   0   0
Tuscaloosa 100  77  98  73 /  30  20   0   0
Calera      98  76  95  72 /  30  20   0   0
Auburn      94  76  93  73 /  20  20   0   0
Montgomery 100  77 100  74 /  20  20  10   0
Troy        98  76  97  73 /  30  20  20   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for the
following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-
Chambers-Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-
Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-
Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-
Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-
Winston.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...32/JDavis