Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
502 FXUS64 KBMX 040538 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1238 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1237 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025 - Dry conditions continue today as drought continues to worsen across Central Alabama. - A weak disturbance in the Gulf will bring 20-30% rain chances Sunday through early next week, but chances of rainfall amounts exceeding 1 inch remain very low. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 1237 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025 Saturday will be another dry one across Central Alabama, with highs again in the mid 80s in most places and winds gusting 15-20 mph from the east at times. Cloud cover will be more likely the further south and east you get, with lesser cloud cover over northwestern areas. By Sunday, a weak tropical disturbance over Florida will push increased moisture up into Alabama, with a 20-30% rain chance Sunday afternoon and again on Monday. These showers are expected to be spotty in nature and move predominantly northwestward. 12 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1237 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025 As mentioned in the short term discussion, increased moisture from the tropical disturbance will lead to low rain chances on Monday. By Tuesday and Wednesday, a weak front will work into the area, maintaining 20-30% rain chances, mainly across northern and central counties. Ahead of the front, high temperatures are forecast to be in the mid to upper 80s in most areas Monday through Wednesday. A slight cooldown is expected toward the end of the week, with upper 70s to low 80s Thursday and Friday. Overall, the dry period will remain in place, as the small rain chances throughout the forecast period will do little to halt emerging or worsening drought conditions across different parts of the region. With little relief in sight from a rainfall standpoint, drought and fire danger is likely to continue, if not worsen, through next week. 12 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025 All terminals should be VFR for the next 24 hours. Winds will be light overnight, with easterly winds increasing during the day Saturday. Gusts may be up to 15-18 kts at times. Winds will drop again by the evening hours. 12 && .FIRE WEATHER... Central Alabama will remain rain free until Sunday. A 20-30% rain chance will be in the forecast for Sunday and Monday. RH values will drop into the 30s across our western areas this afternoon. A moderate risk of significant fire potential is outlooked today across the area, but min RHs and winds are not forecast to meet Red Flag criteria. outdoor burning remains highly discouraged due to ongoing drought conditions. No wetting rainfall is expected in the coming days. Any amounts will be too light to mitigate the worsening drought. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 83 63 83 65 / 0 0 10 10 Anniston 82 65 80 67 / 0 0 20 20 Birmingham 83 67 83 69 / 0 0 20 20 Tuscaloosa 86 67 85 70 / 0 0 20 20 Calera 85 66 84 69 / 0 0 20 20 Auburn 82 66 80 68 / 0 10 20 20 Montgomery 85 68 83 69 / 0 10 20 20 Troy 82 66 81 68 / 0 10 30 30 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...12