Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
621 FXUS64 KBMX 181154 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 654 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 640 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025 - There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms early Sunday morning for roughly the western two-thirds of central Alabama; a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms exists for locations near the Mississippi state line. - The primary severe weather threat early Sunday morning is damaging wind gusts with a secondary risk of a brief tornado or two. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Friday) Issued at 140 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025 Early Sunday morning severe: Water vapor imagery at 1 am Saturday shows a mid- to upper-level trough over the Desert Southwest. This feature is progged to eject over the Southern Plains today, leading to the development of a large area of showers and thunderstorms, near an existing frontal axis, by midday across the Middle to Lower Mississippi River Valley. Based on current trends, a squall line should be in the vicinity of the Mississippi/Alabama state line around midnight/12 am Sunday, steadily moving eastward through the night with a much-needed drink of rain! While a low-level jet around 40 knots and a veering wind profile will promote a sheared environment, instability parameters are low; this is a season-typical setup. All things considered, a few organized line segments and kinks, though perhaps brief in longevity, are forecast. This prospect should favor the western ~two-thirds of central Alabama where ensembles show supportive weak CAPE/instability. The primary threat is damaging wind gusts along bowing line segments, though a brief tornado, or two, could occur with any kinks as well. Rest of next week: Clear weather will return from west to east on Sunday as the storm system quickly departs and high pressure begins to advance from the west. Northwesterly winds will be breezy and gusty on Sunday. Monday and Tuesday mornings will be chilly with low temperatures in the 40s across central Alabama. Guidance suggests, overall, Monday will be the cooler of the two mornings, with a medium chance of some locations near the 278 corridor slipping into the upper 30s. Surface low pressure skirting across the northern Great Lakes will drive a rain-free front across our area on Tuesday. This will give a reinforcing shot of drier air to the region, yielding a chilly morning, mild afternoon pattern. Morning lows are again forecast to be in the 40s across the region through the rest of the week, with guidance pinpointing Thursday as the coolest of this episode, showing a medium to high chance for some communities near the 278 corridor to slip into the upper 30s once again. Parameters for frost are low at this time. Temperatures then moderate a bit heading into the weekend. 89^GSatterwhite && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 640 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025 Except for some MVFR cigs near AUO, cigs elsewhere are VFR. AUO should go VFR ~15-16z. SRLY winds are expected today ahead of our next weather system. A front will approach this evening. SHRA and TSRA at times will be present ahead of the front, with some gusty winds at times. MVFR cigs are expected to move in as the line of storms approach. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... Rain-free conditions are expected through nearly all of Saturday. Southerly winds will average between 10-15 mph, with some gusts near 20 mph, kicking in by mid to late morning. Afternoon MinRHs will generally run in the 40 percent range, with some areas as low as the upper 30s. In areas, breeziness will persist past sundown. A squall involving heavy rain and thunderstorms will sweep across the state overnight Saturday. While the speed of the system will leave the rest of Sunday in a drying and breezy/gusty post-frontal flow, MinRHs will remain above critical thresholds. Monday is forecast to trend drier, with MinRHs in the 20 percent range and light winds. A dry front is forecast to move across the region on Tuesday, which will set the stage for MinRHs to continue bottoming out in the 20 percent range, but with the added risk of low 20s in areas, for a couple days at least. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 85 61 72 42 / 0 90 60 0 Anniston 84 62 73 43 / 0 90 60 0 Birmingham 85 63 73 45 / 0 90 50 0 Tuscaloosa 89 64 75 44 / 0 90 30 0 Calera 88 63 76 44 / 0 90 50 0 Auburn 84 62 77 47 / 0 60 90 0 Montgomery 87 65 79 46 / 0 90 60 0 Troy 85 63 80 46 / 0 60 90 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...89^GSatterwhite AVIATION...08