Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
200 FXUS64 KBMX 290552 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1252 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 1243 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025 A disturbance along the stalled coastal front will contribute to additional rain chances today, primarily for the southern half of the forecast area. A few passing showers will be possible as far north as the I-20 corridor, but activity in the northern portions of the area will be limited by mid-level dry air advection within the northwesterly flow. The greater coverage of rain and cloud cover in the south will lead to a temperature gradient with highs ranging from the mid 70s south to mid 80s north. By Saturday, the pattern is relatively unchanged, but the broad trough axis will begin to shift east of Central Alabama. There will still be some residual shortwave troughing in the low-levels along the Gulf Coast and into Georgia, so some showers will be possible across primarily the southeastern portions of the area during the day while drier air will be present over the northwestern half of the area where there will be more sun. Temperatures will range from the mid 70s southeast to mid 80s northwest. 86/Martin && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1243 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025 Northwest flow continues early next week with Central Alabama situated between broad ridging over the western CONUS and stubborn troughing over the eastern CONUS. This will allow for the occasional disturbance embedded in the flow which will likely initiate isolated to scattered showers or storms each day through the first half of next week, but nothing too unusual, and there will be periods of sun mixed in as well. Temperatures also look to remain fairly steady with 80s during the day, and 60s at night, so hopefully we can continue to avoid the 90s. There are some signals of a more organized system and frontal passage beyond Wednesday which would influence higher PoPs late in the forecast period. This may also signal another push of cooler and well below-average temperatures by the end of next week. We shall see. 86/Martin && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025 Isolated -SHRA is ongoing near MGM/AUO/EET but should generally remain just south of the other terminals through the morning. Expect MVFR to IFR ceilings to begin developing at the southern terminals later this morning and are likely to persist through the day with chances for rain also continuing in the vicinity of a stalled frontal boundary and low-level shortwave. The northern sites should remain in mostly VFR category through this TAF period with drier mid- level air across the northern portions of the area, but they may experience a brief passing shower or lower ceilings but wouldn`t expect impacts to be persistent. TSRA chances at MGM/AUO are low, so I did not include it in the TAF at this time. 86/Martin && .FIRE WEATHER... MinRH values will begin to increase today as a disturbance moves into the region. This disturbance is one of many, so rain chances will remain in the forecast through the weekend. Many locations will see between a half an inch, and one inch of rain with highest amounts in the southern half of the area. Mixing Heights will be reduced in the south as well due to the increased cloud cover. With increasing moisture and rain chances, there are no fire weather concerns at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 85 64 84 63 / 10 20 20 10 Anniston 84 65 82 64 / 20 30 40 10 Birmingham 84 67 85 65 / 20 30 30 10 Tuscaloosa 82 67 86 65 / 30 40 30 10 Calera 82 67 84 65 / 30 40 40 10 Auburn 80 67 78 65 / 40 50 70 20 Montgomery 77 67 81 66 / 50 60 60 20 Troy 76 67 79 66 / 50 60 70 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...86/Martin LONG TERM....86/Martin AVIATION...86/Martin