Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
548 FXUS64 KBMX 191125 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 525 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 522 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025 - Low to medium chances of dense fog tonight in extreme southern portions of Central Alabama. - Warm conditions with near-record highs expected today and tomorrow. - A cold front will bring showers and a few storms to the area on Friday and Saturday, but severe weather is not expected. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Tuesday) Issued at 1242 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025 A weakening surface low will track across the Tennessee Valley today with a remnant warm front extending east to west across northern Alabama. This will contribute to an increase in cloud cover today while broad ridging centered over the northern Gulf will contribute to persistent abnormally warm conditions across the region. Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s this afternoon, and some spots may reach a record daily value. A shortwave will begin to eject across the Plains on Friday with weak height falls occurring as the Gulf ridge is dampened. Similar to today, another surface low will track from the Ozarks and reach the Mid-Atlantic region by Saturday. Periodic showers and a few thunderstorms will arrive in our west Friday afternoon, continuing off and on through Saturday as a weak cold front moves through the area. Poor instability and weakening upper-level support will be the primary limitation for a severe threat this go around. High pressure will build back over the area on Sunday and rain chances will decrease as the cold front moves east of the area. Temperatures will remain above average heading into next week but will be somewhat milder. The pattern looks to remain active with a cutoff low shifting east across the Four Corners and towards the Southern Plains on Monday. This system, potentially more organized than the last, is forecast to bring more rain to the region by the early to middle part of next week. 86/Martin && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 522 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025 Low CIGs are expected to linger through 19/16z, before mixing out back into VFR category. Beyond that, VFR conditions are anticipated for the rest of the TAF period. /44/ && .FIRE WEATHER... RH values will be higher today, ranging from 55-70% this afternoon. 20ft winds will shift from the southwest to west- southwest at 5-8 mph with a few gusts up to 15 mph. RH values will remain well above critical thresholds for the next few days. Area-wide rain chances return to the forecast on Friday. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1206 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2025 Record High Temperatures: November 19: KBHM: 80/1985 KEET: 75/1999 KANB: 81/1963 KTCL: 80/1981 KMGM: 84/1906 November 20: KBHM: 79/1896 KEET: 75/2007 KANB: 78/1979 KTCL: 80/1949 KMGM: 81/1900 November 21: KEET: 77/2011 KANB: 77/2011 KTCL: 79/1965 KMGM: 83/2011 November 22: KBHM: 79/1900 KEET: 77/2010 KANB: 79/1963 KTCL: 79/1979 KMGM: 81/2011 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 79 55 80 56 / 10 0 10 10 Anniston 78 58 80 58 / 0 0 10 10 Birmingham 78 60 80 60 / 0 0 10 10 Tuscaloosa 82 60 83 58 / 0 0 0 10 Calera 81 58 82 57 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 78 59 80 58 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 80 58 82 56 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 80 56 81 56 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...86/Martin AVIATION.../44/