Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
266 FXUS64 KBMX 300631 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 131 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 125 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025 Light showers are continuing across the far southern portions of the area early this morning near a remnant moisture axis. There is a noticeable moisture gradient across the area with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the northern half of the area and in the lower 70s across the southern half of the area where some patchy fog may develop through the pre-dawn hours. Expect the drier air to advect south today confining rain chances to our southeastern counties with mostly cloudy skies expected elsewhere. It will be one of the warmer days we`ve had all week, and temperatures will range from near 90F west to near 80F east. A surface high is centered over the Great Lakes region with broad 500mb ridging centered over the Western CONUS. Northwest flow aloft with easterly sfc flow will continue on Sunday as the remnant boundary along the Gulf Coast finally pushes further south. Dry and partly cloudy conditions are expected with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s. 86/Martin && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 125 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025 Below average (but still warm) temperatures are expected to continue into next week with the pattern characterized by somewhat of an omega block centered over the Desert Southwest. Rain chances will be influenced early in the week by a low-level shortwave feature embedded within the northwest flow which will track from the Upper Plains towards the Midsouth region by Tuesday. We could see some showers across the northern part of the forecast area during this time, but most of Central Alabama will remain dry. Rain chances will increase area-wide by the middle of the week as the shortwave moves across the region. PoPs are currently around 30-40%, but could increase once the timing of this disturbance is narrowed down. Models are still depicting a more organized trough and frontal passage by the end of the week which will help to reinforce the unusually "cool" and drier airmass that we`ve been experiencing over the last week. 86/Martin && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 125 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025 IFR to MVFR ceilings are present across the southern half of the area near the remnant front/moisture axis, primarily affecting MGM/AUO at this time. These low ceilings and some patchy fog development may try to advect towards the northern terminals over the next few hours, but its uncertain how far north this will occur. For now, included a TEMPO for MVFR ceilings and some visibility impacts at the northern terminals beginning around 09Z. Will monitor trends closely to see if any amendments are needed, but expect higher confidence in aviation impacts primarily at MGM/AUO where low ceilings may linger through the afternoon with slow improvement. VFR conditions are forecast to return area-wide by 00Z as drier air advects southward. 86/Martin && .FIRE WEATHER... MinRH values will range from 40-45% in the north and 65-75% in the southeast today. The drier air will gradually advect southward during the day, but some passing showers will continue across the south. Dry conditions are expected through the beginning of the week, but another disturbance will bring rain chances to the area by midweek. Winds will remain relatively light from the east- northeast over the next couple of days. There are no fire weather concerns at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 87 63 85 64 / 0 0 10 10 Anniston 85 63 85 64 / 10 0 10 10 Birmingham 88 66 87 66 / 0 0 10 10 Tuscaloosa 90 66 88 67 / 0 0 0 10 Calera 87 65 86 66 / 10 0 10 10 Auburn 80 65 83 65 / 30 0 10 10 Montgomery 83 66 85 67 / 30 0 10 10 Troy 80 65 83 65 / 50 10 10 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...86/Martin LONG TERM....86/Martin AVIATION...86/Martin