Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
348 FXUS64 KBMX 171059 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 559 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 536 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2025 - There is a moderate to major heat risk across the northwest portions of Central Alabama for Thursday. To avoid heat- related illness, heat safety should be exercised for people and pets. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 103 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2025 Some low cloud cover may work in across southern areas this morning but should mix out by a couple hours after sunrise. Looks like another hot day across Central Alabama, with max heat indices generally from 100 to 107 across the region. Expanded the Heat Advisory for today to now include Pickens and Tuscaloosa counties, along with Lamar, Fayette, Walker, Marion, and Winston counties. Increasing cloud cover and late afternoon rain and storm chances may work to hold down temps and heat indices a degree or two from yesterday. Latest CAMs show a couple northward moving bands during the mid to late afternoon associated with Invest 93L, with potential to see showers and thunderstorms, especially across the southern half of the area. In addition, afternoon convection is possible further north across the Tennessee Valley, which may impact some of our northern Central Alabama counties as well. Friday looks to be a tad "less hot" overall, with generally low 90s instead of mid 90s for highs. Invest 93L should be inland over Louisiana by then, but rain bands associated with the system are still forecast to move into Central Alabama, most likely the southwestern counties. 12 && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 103 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2025 Chances for afternoon thunderstorms will continue each day for the next week, with a ridge building back in by early to mid week. High temps will return to the mid 90s, with heat index values currently forecast to rebound into the 100-110 range, depending on day and location. Higher heat index values are expected over western counties by Tuesday and Wednesday. Further Heat Advisories are likely to be issued next week if current trends hold. 12 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 536 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2025 Satellite imagery reveals a low level stratus deck moving across Central AL. Brief MVFR ceilings are possible for the next hour or two, mainly at BHM/EET. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail through the remainder of the day. Isolated to scattered convection is likely today across all terminals. Greatest coverage is expected closer to MGM due to the proximity to the influx of tropical moisture. Continued with the PROB30 groups for now. Once convection begins to develop and we get a better sense of timing and coverage, we could see them converted to TEMPO groups. MVFR/IFR ceilings are likely to develop Friday morning across the region. Winds generally light, 5-10 knots, out of the southeast this cycle. NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until further notice due to comms issues. Also, AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX has been added at ASN until further notice due to missing sky group in obs. 95/Castillo && .FIRE WEATHER... Fire weather concerns will remain limited, with min RH values remaining 50-60% or above through the weekend. Winds will stay generally under 10 mph for most of the next week, with rain and storm chances remaining in the forecast each afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 94 72 93 72 / 30 30 50 20 Anniston 93 73 91 73 / 40 20 50 20 Birmingham 94 74 92 74 / 40 20 50 20 Tuscaloosa 94 75 91 75 / 40 20 70 20 Calera 92 74 89 74 / 40 20 60 20 Auburn 90 74 91 74 / 50 20 50 10 Montgomery 93 74 93 74 / 70 20 60 20 Troy 90 72 92 72 / 80 20 60 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Fayette-Lamar-Marion-Pickens- Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...95/Castillo