366
FXUS64 KBMX 210341
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1041 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1039 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026

- Severe Weather: There is a level 1 out of 5 threat for strong to
  severe thunderstorms across portions of Central Alabama for both
  Monday and Tuesday in the afternoon and evening. The primary
  threat will be damaging winds gusts up to 60 mph.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Monday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1039 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026

Shower and thunderstorm activity will be ongoing overnight across
northern and northwestern Central Alabama. Activity should
dissipate during the early morning hours. Patchy fog is expected
around daybreak. Temperatures will rise into the mid 90s once
again Monday, with Alabama remaining on the eastern edge of a
ridge. A shortwave passing through Tennessee during the afternoon
will promote another round of thunderstorm development over
Central Alabama through the afternoon and evening hours. There is
currently a risk for severe thunderstorms with damaging wind as
the primary threat, mainly across central and northern counties
in the region. Recent CAMs have shown fairly widespread
convection across the area, with counties in the southeastern
part of the area having lesser chances of rain/storms. Activity
should begin developing just after midday, from 12 to 2 pm, and
continue until slowly waning by 8 or 9 pm.

Tuesday afternoon will feature another chance of showers and
thunderstorms as a cold front approaches from the northwest. This
offers another opportunity to see a low-end severe risk, with
damaging wind again as the primary threat. By Wednesday and
Thursday, slightly cooler air will push in, dropping high
temperatures into the 80s Thursday and Friday. This is finally
the first sign that a change in seasons is on the horizon, with
the first front of the season coming through just in time for
astronomical fall to begin Tuesday evening. Behind the front,
rain chances decrease, and the end of the week is currently
forecast to be mostly dry and a bit more seasonable across
Central Alabama.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all sites the majority of the next
24 hours. There continues to be a low probability of MVFR fog
near AUO toward sunrise. TEMPO group is maintained from the
previous TAF from 09 to 13z. Tomorrow afternoon, scattered
showers and thunderstorms are anticipated once again. Enough
confidence to introduce PROB30s for TSRA at BHM, TCL, and EET.
Confidence is currently a little less in seeing activity at MGM
and AUO, but that will be revisited in future TAF issuances.

12

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather concerns remain low at this time, although
compounding effects from intensifying drought conditions may
arise. Medium chances for showers and storms will continue into
the middle of this week, especially north and central counties,
with light winds outside of convection. Drying toward the end of
the week, with very minimal to no rain chances and RH dipping
into the 35-45% range in the afternoons.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     71  94  69  93 /  30  50  30  60
Anniston    70  93  70  92 /  30  50  40  60
Birmingham  73  94  72  93 /  30  50  30  50
Tuscaloosa  72  96  71  96 /  30  50  30  40
Calera      71  94  70  94 /  20  50  30  50
Auburn      71  91  71  91 /  10  30  20  40
Montgomery  72  94  72  93 /  10  30  20  30
Troy        70  94  70  94 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...12