Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
282 FXUS64 KBMX 181837 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1237 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, CLIMATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1206 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2025 - Low to medium chances of dense fog tonight in extreme southern portions of Central Alabama. - A warming trend will occur this week with near-record highs expected from today through Thursday. - A cold front will bring showers and a few storms to the area on Friday and Saturday, but severe weather is not expected. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Monday) Issued at 1237 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2025 Today through Thursday: A warm front is currently lifting northeastward across the forecast area, in response a shortwave trough and surface low moving eastward from Missouri to the Ohio Valley. This is causing a surge in dew points across West Alabama, while lower dew points remain across East Alabama. These lower RH values in East Alabama will result in elevated fire danger there, but thankfully winds are a bit lighter there. Otherwise, expect yet another day of above normal temperatures. Showers and storms along the cold front associated with the Ohio Valley system should weaken considerably as they approach our northern counties tonight, as ridging builds back in aloft across the Southeast CONUS. Low (20-30%) chances for showers are forecast in the far northern counties late tonight. Meanwhile, advection fog is expected to develop northward from the Gulf Coast tonight. This will result in low to medium chances of dense fog in our far southern row of counties. The front will stall across our northern counties tomorrow. Mainly just expect an increase in cloudcover, with a very low (10%) chance of a shower. Cloudcover could throw a bit of a wrench into the high temperature forecast, but record highs will be in jeopardy wherever it doesn`t linger. Ridging aloft continues on Thursday to the north of a 590 decameter anticyclone near the Yucatan, while the front begins to lift back to the north. There will be just a small (10-20%) chance for a shower in our far northern counties near the front as some weak vorticity maxima ride overtop of the ridge. Record high temperatures in the lower 80s are forecast. Friday through Monday: The cutoff low currently over southern California will eventually move eastward but will also be shearing out as it moves eastward from Oklahoma on Friday to Kentucky by Wednesday morning. This will take place as it encounters confluent flow aloft and gets squished by a northern stream trough over the Great Lakes and Ontario. A weak shortwave out ahead of it will provide low to medium (20-50%) chances for rain on Friday. The associated cold front eventually moves in late Friday night and Saturday with the glancing influence of the shortwave. This will bring medium (40-60%) rain chances with a low chance for thunderstorms. Given the lack of instability and ridging once again building back in aloft, there appears to be little if any severe threat. The front looks to stall near the Gulf Coast Sunday/Monday with ridging aloft ahead of the next cutoff low. Temperatures remain above normal. 32/JDavis && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025 VFR conditions are expected today with SSW winds around 7 to 10 kts. Tomorrow morning a cold front will be stalling across northern Alabama while advection fog is expected to develop across southern Alabama. Chance for MVFR cigs are medium with a low chance for IFR cigs. Will include MVFR cigs at all but AUO. Additionally, there is a low chance for fog at MGM. Will note that there is a less likely but still plausible alternative scenario where low clouds remain north of the terminals and fog remains south of the terminals. 32/JDavis && .FIRE WEATHER... Moisture is increasing across West Alabama, but East Alabama remains dry with RH values falling into the 20 to 25 percent range this afternoon. 20ft winds will be out of the SSW gusting to 10 to 15 mph. Afternoon minimum RH values increase to the 40-60 percent range Wednesday through the rest of the week, but temperatures remain well above normal with limited rain chances until Friday. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1206 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2025 Record High Temperatures: November 18: KEET: 79/2016 KTCL: 82/1985 November 19: KBHM: 80/1985 KEET: 75/1999 KANB: 81/1963 KTCL: 80/1981 KMGM: 84/1906 November 20: KBHM: 79/1896 KEET: 75/2007 KANB: 78/1979 KTCL: 80/1949 KMGM: 81/1900 November 21: KEET: 77/2011 KANB: 77/2011 KTCL: 79/1965 KMGM: 83/2011 November 22: KBHM: 79/1900 KEET: 77/2010 KANB: 79/1963 KTCL: 79/1979 KMGM: 81/2011 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 56 79 54 81 / 30 10 0 10 Anniston 58 78 57 80 / 10 10 0 0 Birmingham 61 79 60 81 / 10 10 0 0 Tuscaloosa 60 82 59 81 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 58 81 57 82 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 56 79 59 80 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 58 81 57 82 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 56 81 56 82 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...32/JDavis AVIATION...32/JDavis