107
FXUS64 KBMX 190536
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1236 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1232 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2025

 - A line of storms will move through the area this morning and
   afternoon. There will be at least a low risk of damaging winds
   up to 60 mph, which could increase if the storms come through
   later in the afternoon allowing for more heating.

 - A transition to a hotter and less wet pattern will take place
   starting tomorrow, with low to medium chances of heat indices
   reaching 105 degrees Sunday through next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2025

As a a shortwave trough moves through the Ohio Valley and Great
Lakes this morning, westerly flow aloft will become northwesterly
across Central Alabama. Thunderstorms are currently developing along
a surface trough/weak frontal boundary up in the Memphis area. CAMs
generally indicate that this activity will grow upscale into an MCS
later tonight with a modest 30 kt LLJ. Given the weak forcing, there
is unsurprisingly a lot of spread in the track and timing of this
MCS moving into the area later this morning. The overall trend was
quicker but each successive HRRR run now is coming in a bit slower
as convection has yet to organize. 0-6km bulk shear will be around
20 kts. At minimum expect some strong storms with gusty winds of 40
to 50 mph as the MCS/outflow moves through, along with the low
chance for a severe wind gust. If the MCS moves through earlier in
the morning then this will help limit the instability and severe
weather potential, but if it slows down allowing for more heating
and instability then the severe weather potential would increase.
Will need to monitor mesoscale trends once the MCS actually forms.
Depending on how quickly the MCS moves southward, we may also see
some additional storm development near the surface trough/frontal
boundary to our north late this afternoon that could move into our
northern counties by this evening.

Subtropical ridging will begin to strengthen off to our west over
the ArkLaTex on Friday as the pattern change begins. This will begin
to result in warming temperatures. Drier air moving in aloft will
suppress convection across the northeast half of the area. Lingering
moisture will result in some afternoon convection in the southwest
half of the area, but this should remain isolated to scattered in
nature.

32/JDavis

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2025

A change to a more summer-like pattern will take place in the
extended period as a strong subtropical ridge dominates the eastern
CONUS downstream of an omega block over the northeastern Pacific.
There will still be opportunities for diurnal convection especially
as the ridge center moves to the Mid-Atlantic next week allowing for
weak impulses in easterly flow south of the ridge, but convective
coverage will be much lower than in recent days. Highs will be in
the 90s with heat indices climbing into the 100 to 105 range. There
are currently low to medium chances of heat indices reaching 105
degrees (heat advisory criteria). Heat indices will be dependent on
how much dew points mix out each afternoon. With the very wet ground
conditions, they may not mix out as much, though this may also keep
temperatures from warming quite as much. Either way, it will
certainly begin to feel like summer in Alabama.

32/JDavis

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2025

LAMP guidance has backed off on low clouds, however HREF guidance
still indicates medium chances of IFR. Given low cloud development
on satellite and already at TCL, along with recent rainfall, will
include IFR cigs at all sites. Confidence with this is medium,
however. A line of showers and storms is expected to move in from
the northwest later today. Timing remains uncertain but tried to
estimate via TEMPOs. Refinements will be needed at the next TAF
issuance.

NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until
further notice due to comms issues.

32/JDavis

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Another round of showers and storms will move through the area
today. After that, a transition to a hotter and less wet pattern
will take place this weekend and next week. RH values will still
generally be above 50 percent in West Alabama, dropping into the
40 to 50 percent range in East Alabama.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     87  66  90  66 /  70  20  10   0
Anniston    86  68  89  68 /  70  10  10   0
Birmingham  87  70  90  70 /  70  10  10   0
Tuscaloosa  87  71  91  73 /  60  10  20   0
Calera      87  71  90  71 /  60  10  10   0
Auburn      88  71  90  72 /  50  20  10   0
Montgomery  90  71  91  72 /  50  20  20  10
Troy        90  71  92  71 /  50  20  30  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM....32
AVIATION...32/JDavis