Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
403 FXUS64 KBMX 012339 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 639 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tonight) Issued at 403 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2025 Small afternoon update to increase PoP`s based on the current radar coverage. While there is still uncertainty on how long these showers will hang on, I didn`t want to risk them sneaking into an area with no rain in the forecast. /44/ Previous short-term discussion: (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 245 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2025 This afternoon, upper disturbances through the NW flow interacting with a weak inverted surface trough will allow for some isolated to scattered shower activity this afternoon in the NW 1/3 of C AL. A few thunderstorms are possible, but most of will likely be just showers. For the remainder 2/3rds of C AL, lower dew points will allow for hot but not as humid conditions. Convection will continue off/on into the overnight hours into Tuesday. Although it should spread a little more SEWD into the area, much of the SE 1/2 of the area should remain rainfree as activity should deteriorate as it moves away from the better energy. 08 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 245 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2025 We do have a few changes with the extended. Look for only low to moderate rain chances for Tuesday night through mid week across the NRN half of C AL as we are scraped by upper disturbances with only meager available moisture. Guidance is trending drier with the midweek system and confidence is lower that we will have enough moisture for showers/tstorms across the SRN half of C AL now for Wed. Beyond that for the remainder of the extended, guidance continues to indicate a reinforcing front to move through the area Thursday (low rain chances N) and possibly again on Saturday (mainly dry). These two fronts should help to keep the overnight temperatures down some with a still hot, but not humid, airmass expected for next weekend. 50s dew points are possible behind the second system for many by Sunday, except maybe the far SE counties. 08 Previous long-term discussion: (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1242 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2025 A shortwave will move into the Lower MS River Valley on Wednesday. Mid-level moisture will be lacking so that should keep rain coverage from becoming widespread, but scattered showers and a few storms will be possible area-wide. A cold front will pass through the area on Thursday with yet another frontal passage expected over the weekend, possibly early next week. Doesn`t appear that mid-level moisture will ever rebound behind the first shortwave, so precip along the frontal boundaries looks limited to scattered coverage at most, but PoPs could increase as we get closer. Temperatures towards the end of the week have also trended warmer in the most recent updates with some communities reaching the low 90s from Thursday through Saturday. Humidity values remain seasonably low and could trend even lower behind the frontal passage this weekend. 86/Martin && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2025 Showers may linger overnight, with KBHM carrying PROB30 groups for SHRA overnight. Additional showers are possible, but confidence was not high enough to introduce further rain chances at this time. Beyond that, VFR conditions are anticipated for the entire TAF period. /44/ && .FIRE WEATHER... MinRH values will range from 40-55% this afternoon with chances for isolated to scattered showers across northern portions of the area through Wednesday associated with shortwave activity. Moisture values will remain relatively steady for the next few days, and will be above critical thresholds. There are no fire weather concerns at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 62 83 62 85 / 20 20 30 40 Anniston 62 83 63 85 / 20 20 10 30 Birmingham 66 85 65 86 / 30 30 20 30 Tuscaloosa 67 87 66 88 / 20 20 20 30 Calera 65 86 65 87 / 20 20 10 30 Auburn 63 84 64 85 / 10 10 10 10 Montgomery 64 87 64 90 / 10 10 10 10 Troy 62 86 62 88 / 0 10 10 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...02 LONG TERM....08 AVIATION.../44/