340
FXUS64 KBMX 071128
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
628 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 627 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2026

- Heat Indices: While slightly cooler temperatures arrive today,
  heat indices will still reach 100-105 degrees. Humidity levels
  will be slightly lower, but please continue to practice heat
  safety.

- Rain and Storms: Drier conditions today and Tuesday will shift
  rain activity toward the south. By mid-week, rising humidity
  will lead to an increased chance for showers and storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Monday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026

Isolated showers and storms remain possible (10 to 20%) through
4 AM, primarily across the southeast. Given the earlier rainfall,
patchy fog is anticipated across the east through sunrise.

For the upcoming day, surface flow becomes easterly, resulting in
a slight drop in temperatures and dew points. Drier air aloft
moving in from the north will limit convective potential across
the northern third of the (CWA), while scattered storms remain in
the forecast south of I-20. Afternoon surface dew points are
expected to mix into the upper 60s to lower 70s, keeping heat
indices just below Heat Advisory criteria. While no advisory is
anticipated for Monday, heat indices will rise to 100-105 degrees.
The easterly surface flow will strengthen as the pressure
gradient tightens near the surface ridge over the Appalachians.
Expect wind gusts near 20 mph, providing heat relief for eastern
and northeastern counties.

The 500 mb ridge is expected to amplify by midweek. High
confidence exists that rising heights and drier air aloft will
limit rain chances to the I-85 corridor and points south through
Wednesday. Meanwhile, global deterministic guidance maintains
consistency in moving an upper-level low westward over the
northern Gulf by Wednesday and Thursday, transporting additional
tropical moisture northward. Consequently, diurnal shower and
storm chances are expected to increase, with highs reaching the
low to mid-90s. By the end of the week, an upper trough will dive
toward the Great Lakes. A surface cold front will approach the
region by Friday and Saturday; however, current guidance indicates
limited upper-level support for the front to penetrate as far
south as Central Alabama.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the majority of this TAF
cycle. Light and variable winds this morning will become easterly
through the day. AUO/MGM are likely to see occasional gusts in
the 15-20 knot range. We are maintaining a 30% probability of
convection at MGM and AUO during the late afternoon and evening
hours, given the potential for sufficient localized coverage.
Otherwise, we will need to monitor for potential fog development
late tonight for those terminals that see rain today.

Note: AMD NOT SKED at TCL due to missing observations.

95/Castillo

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Minimum RH values are expected to stay above 40% through next
week. While daily rain chances will remain low (10-30%) through
midweek, they will increase slightly thereafter. Fire weather
concerns remain low for now, but decreasing soil moisture will
elevate these risks by the end of the week if beneficial rainfall
remains scarce.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     91  70  90  69 /  10  10  10   0
Anniston    89  70  88  70 /  20  20  10   0
Birmingham  93  72  89  72 /  20  10  10   0
Tuscaloosa  98  73  92  74 /  20  10  10   0
Calera      94  72  90  72 /  20  20  10   0
Auburn      88  71  87  72 /  30  20  20   0
Montgomery  95  73  92  73 /  30  20  20  10
Troy        94  70  90  70 /  40  30  30  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...95/Castillo