895
FXUS64 KBMX 260558
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1258 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 709 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2024

Scattered thunderstorms were still moving around Central Alabama
early this evening. The short wave trough has moved east of the
area but the smaller scale interactions along boundaries and
pockets of instability will keep the activity going a few more
hours. Expect a diminishing trend through midnight. A more
pronounced trough moves by late tonight but appears to have its
greatest impacts north of the area. Similar to last night, low
clouds and patchy fog will develop around sunrise and slowly
dissipate during the morning hours.

Sunday appears to be a calmer day, as upper level heights will
actually increase as a 594 decameter ridge builds over the central
Gulf of Mexico. That will help winds aloft become more westerly
to west- southwesterly by Sunday afternoon. If we get any
convective activity during the day on Sunday, it should remain
across the far northern counties. Rain chances will then increase
across the northwest counties in response to the upper trough axis
moving eastward over the plains states and approaching surface
front in Arkansas. Hot and humid conditions are expected due to
the lack of showers and storms with highs in the lower 90s in most
locations. Heat indices will approach the 100 degree mark during
the peak heating of the day.

56/GDG/75

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2024

The main story in the extended continues to be late Sunday night
into Monday as the main upper system is expected to move through
with some strong to severe storms possible. A second additional
wave of convection may occur during the afternoon hours with
heating before the surface system is through. After that, milder/
rain free conditions are expected for the second half of the week
as ridging takes hold for Tuesday through Friday.

08

Previous long-term discussion:
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2024

The main upper level trough is expected to slide through the region
late Sunday night through the overnight hours into Monday. This
upper wave will provide the forcing for showers and thunderstorms
across Central AL. There will be enough instability in place, along
with modest deep layer shear to support a few strong to severe
storms overnight Sunday night into Monday. After the initial upper
wave moves through, guidance suggests the surface boundary could
trigger additional convection during the afternoon/evening hours on
Monday as it moves through.

Drier conditions expected Tuesday through Friday as the main trough
remains to our east and broad ridging sets up to our west. Some
guidance tries to bring a few waves down in this northwesterly flow,
but this hasn`t been consistent. Most guidance shows the ridging
winning out leading to mostly dry conditions for much of the
upcoming week.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2024

No convection expected during the forecast period despite plenty
of instability. Slight upper ridging over Alabama today will keep
a cap on convection, with thunderstorms expected to remain across
Tennessee. Low clouds will form after 10Z with cigs 1000-2000 ft
agl at most sites thru 14Z. VFR conds after 15Z as clouds lift and
become scattered. Vsbys at TOI/TCL may fall below 3 miles at
times thru 12Z with LIFR cigs possible at TOI between 10Z and 13Z.
South winds will increase after 14Z with sustained speeds of 8-12
knots with gusts up to 20 kts across the northern TAF sites.


58/rose

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into this
evening. Another round of convection is expected again late
Sunday night through Monday. 20 foot winds will be from the south
to southwest at less than 5 mph this afternoon, increasing to
6 to 12 mph on Sunday. Patchy fog is possible across the eastern
portions of the area as well. Min RH values will be near or above
45 percent through Monday, with overnight recoveries near 100%.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     89  68  88  62 /  10  60  60  20
Anniston    89  70  87  64 /  10  50  60  20
Birmingham  91  71  89  65 /  10  60  50  20
Tuscaloosa  92  72  90  66 /   0  60  40  20
Calera      90  72  89  66 /   0  50  50  20
Auburn      88  71  86  67 /   0  20  60  30
Montgomery  92  73  90  69 /   0  20  60  30
Troy        91  72  89  69 /   0  10  50  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...58/rose