395
FXUS64 KBMX 251946
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
246 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 107 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2024

The 700mb portion of the ridge is centered just west of Central
Alabama this afternoon, and we have a very hot and dry airmass
across the area. Dewpoints have mixed efficiently into the upper 50s
to mid 60s which is resulting in RH ranging from 25 to 35 percent as
temperatures have risen into the mid 90s. Based on the trends, we`re
aiming for another afternoon of highs in the upper 90s with some
triple digit readings certainly possible amidst sunny skies.
Unfortunately, the miserable heat continues.

Short term models have really come into better agreement this
morning on a brief breakdown in the ridge tomorrow as a low to mid-
level trough moves across the region. A complex of thunderstorms is
progged to develop along a cold front over the Midwest tomorrow
morning and quickly advance south into the Midsouth region. Strong
outflow driven storms will move into northern Mississippi by
midday with additional thunderstorms expected to develop across
western portions of Central Alabama during the afternoon as
moisture increases dramatically with the trough axis. In fact,
PWATs will increase from ~1-1.25" in the morning up to ~2" by the
afternoon. It appears that convection will spread eastward, but
with decreasing intensity and coverage as we move into the later
part of the day, so still expecting hot temperatures, especially
for areas generally east of I-65.

The evolution of this thunderstorm complex and related nearby convective
development is difficult to pinpoint at the moment given the
mesoscale variability in this summertime pattern, but could see
some potential for strong winds in these storms, mainly west of
I-65 where they will be mostly outflow driven. Although progged
wind shear values are weak, if model trends continue to favor some
cold-pool driven storms across our west, then a risk of severe
storms with damaging wind potential may need to be advertised in
the forecast.

86/Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2024

The breakdown of the upper ridge (or, its retrograde into the
southwestern states) will be fairly brief. After the passage of
the upper shortwave trough and associated convective system
Wednesday night and Thursday, global models bring the upper ridge
center back east of the Rockies from Friday through the remainder
of the long term. This puts central Alabama back into a typical
mesoscale diurnally driven summertime pattern. That means POPs of
40 to 60 percent on days where the ridge center is more in the
southern plains, and 20 to 30 percent on days where the ridge
center edges eastward into the southern Mississippi Valley and
Southeast states. Unless we get more rain than expected in the
short term, then ground conditions will continue to become
increasingly dry enough to support daytime temperatures in the
mid/upper 90s by this weekend into (at least) early next week.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 107 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2024

Clear skies are in place across Central Alabama this afternoon.
Stable conditions are expected to continue through tomorrow morning
as the ridge axis shifts east over the area with some increasing
high cloud cover overnight. Flow is generally weak from the north
at around 5 kts or less.

86/Martin

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hot and dry conditions will continue through tonight. Moisture
begins to increase from the west on Wednesday, but RH values in
East Alabama will still drop into the 28 to 35 percent range.
Chances for showers and storms will return from the west on
Wednesday. Scattered, mainly afternoon and evening showers and
storms are expected Thursday into the weekend, with the highest
coverage in the southeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     67  99  69  93 /   0  20  50  50
Anniston    69  98  71  90 /   0  20  40  60
Birmingham  74  99  72  93 /   0  40  50  50
Tuscaloosa  74  96  71  91 /   0  60  60  50
Calera      72  98  72  93 /   0  40  50  60
Auburn      72  96  73  92 /   0  20  20  60
Montgomery  71  98  72  93 /   0  40  40  70
Troy        72  97  71  93 /   0  30  30  70

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...86
LONG TERM..../61/
AVIATION...86