234
FXUS64 KBMX 251541
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
941 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 854 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025

 - Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected today through
   tonight through Tuesday. There is a level 1 to 2 out of 5 risk
   for severe thunderstorms with hazards including isolated
   damaging winds, quarter size hail, and perhaps a couple of
   tornadoes.

 - Clear and colder conditions are forecast for Thanksgiving Day.

 - The next chance of rain will return Saturday night into Sunday,
   marking the beginning of a wetter weather pattern.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE STORM CHANCES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...
Issued at 938 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025

Central Alabama is currently in the wake of the line of severe
storms that produced widespread wind damage from Walker eastward
to Cherokee County. This "first round" of storms was associated
with a potent 75-80kt 500mb shortwave that is now lifting off to
the northeast. Following the morning round of storms, the
question now becomes what the environment will look like for the
"second round" of storms expected to fire ahead of the approaching
cold front to our west. Showers and storms are continuing to
develop along the I-59 corridor at this hour thanks to the
previous outflow boundary left over from this morning`s storms.
The most recent WPC Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion analyzes
the current surface setup very well: A strong low-level southerly
jet is advecting tropical moisture northward and lifting parcels
up and over the outflow boundary, developing the current activity
due to the speed shear and synoptic lift aloft. Storms are moving
across similar areas, so we`ll need to watch for the potential of
localized flooding. Storm drains may also be clogged from recent
falling leaves that could also lead to additional ponding of
water on roadways.

So the question really is what will happen to this old remnant
boundary as we go into the afternoon. CAMs have had a tough time
resolving the current mesoscale situation, as dewpoints remain in
the upper 50s to lower 60s along the I-20 corridor due to the
consistent shower and storm development holding the old "cold
pool" in place at the surface. Looking to the south, however,
upper 60s to lower 70s dewpoints are not far away across southern
Mississippi and southwestern Alabama. Surface wind gusts were
observed between 15 and 20 knots in Greenville and Evergreen,
along with gusts over 20 knots in Meridian, MS. So there`s no
question that the low-level jet remains in place and will attempt
to re-supply the tropical and unstable air that was lost due to
the morning round of storms. Eventually, the low-level jet is
still expected to overtake the old outflow boundary and cause
dewpoints to rise into the mid to upper 60s by this afternoon
along the I-20 corridor. Farther to the north along the U.S. 278
corridor, severe chances are much lower, as it will be a race
against time before the front arrives from the west.

With the best upper level forcing now exiting off to the north and
east, we`ll need a good amount of destabilization at the surface
to support severe updrafts. Visible satellite is showing some
sunshine peeking through at times in our far southern and
southwest counties, so we`ll need to watch observation trends
closely. Surface winds have yet to start veering to the south and
west, so supercell-type structures with rotating updrafts will
definitely be possible as we go into the early afternoon hours,
especially south of the I-20 corridor. The northern extent of the
current severe outlook area will remain the biggest question mark
as we watch to see if the old outflow can be overtaken by the low-
level jet.

56/GDG

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tuesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1149 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025

An band of elevated convection will continue to organize to our
west tonight as an upstream shortwave approaches from the Ark-
La-Tex region. This activity will move into our northwestern
counties between 1 AM and 3 AM, and progress eastward toward the
I-59 corridor around 6 AM. As the associated shortwave skirts by
to our north, a trailing confluence band will be left in wake of
this early morning round of convection. Weak subsidence will allow
surface-based CAPE to build in the late morning into the afternoon
as mid to upper 60s dewpoints advect northward. Eventually
broad/weak cyclonic height curvature and weak height falls,
combined with daytime heating, will promote additional convective
development around 18z within confluence zones. Due to the
weak/subtle nature of the forcing, scattered cellular activity is
expected. A lingering low-level jet should slowly weaken through
the daylight hours, ranging from 30-40 knots as storms mature.
Though hodographs will not be particularly large, 0-3 km SRH of
200-300 m2/s2 will support weak to moderate mesocyclones within
the strongest cells, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes during the
afternoon and early evening hours.

The current remarkable stretch of above normal temperatures will
come to an end as a front surges through the region Tuesday night
into Wednesday. The establishment of a large trough over the
eastern CONUS will result in days of afternoon highs in the 50s
and cold nights. As the pattern becomes more progressive over the
weekend, zonal 500 mb flow will induce southwesterly flow at 850 mb
and low-level isentropic lift, leading to our next chance of rain
late Saturday into Sunday and Monday.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025

We have a combo this morning of anywhere from MVFR to IFR cigs
accompanying SHRA/TSRA in the N/IE...TCL/BHM/EET. In the S, VFR to
MVFR with SHRA in the VC and SHRA/TSRA expected later today ahead
of a cold front. This activity will continue into this evening as
the system progresses SEWD across C AL. More low cigs are possible
later tonight MVFR-IFR with some wrap around moisture. Cigs
shouldn`t last all night at TCL with some drier air moving into
the area behind the front from the W toward the end of the TAF
forecast.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A warm and moist airmass will persist ahead of a front on Tuesday
along with high rain chances. Behind the front, a drier airmass
will surge into the region. Afternoon RH values are expected to
fall to 25-35 percent for Thursday through Saturday. Winds will
be near 10 mph with the potential for gusts around 20 mph from the
south on Tuesday before shifting to the northwest on Wednesday
and Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     73  50  61  32 / 100  80   0   0
Anniston    75  54  62  34 / 100  90   0   0
Birmingham  74  52  61  35 / 100  70   0   0
Tuscaloosa  76  51  61  35 / 100  40   0   0
Calera      75  53  64  36 / 100  80   0   0
Auburn      79  59  67  38 /  70  90   0   0
Montgomery  82  57  67  37 /  80  90   0   0
Troy        82  58  69  38 /  40  90   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...56/GDG
AVIATION...08