774
FXUS64 KBMX 251922
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
222 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 220 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025

- Medium to high chances of heat indices reaching 105 degrees and
  air temperatures exceeding 95 degrees today across all of
  Central Alabama. There is also a medium chance of this
  continuing for Thursday for the northwest half of Central
  Alabama.

- There is a level 1 to 2 out of 5 risk of severe storms during
  this afternoon and evening. The main threats are damaging winds
  and large hail. There is also a level 1 out of 5 risk of severe
  storms for Thursday afternoon and evening. The main risk is
  damaging winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025

This afternoon is the hottest afternoon that we should have for
the 7 day forecast with mid to upper 90s air temps and max heat
indices above 105 for most. Surface ridging remains present over
much of ERN Conus as well as in the upper levels for today.
However, with as hot as we are, we could still get a few tstorms
to develop through this evening. Any storms that do occur will
have the potential for become strong to severe with damaging winds
being the primary threat as well as some large hail as fuel will
not be a problem. Currently mentioning a 1 to 2 level out of 5
risk for severe tstorms through this evening for much of C AL.

The heat advisory in effect will continue for all counties through
7 pm. For the NW 1/2 of counties (along NW of a Sumter to Shelby
to Cherokee line), I have expanded the advisory to go through Thu
afternoon as well. SE 1/2 looks to be a tad lower for Thu, but
will monitor model trends for any additional changes. This change
will be due to the break down of the upper ridge as a low pressure
feature nudges toward us from FL. As a result, our afternoon
shower and tstorm chances will increase. This should in turn allow
for our highs to be a couple of degrees lower as well. Finally, some
marginally severe tstorms will be possible with heating.

08

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025

Guidance continues to trend wetter for our extended forecast. The
upper low, after migrating into the SE US should open up for Fri.
The upper levels are expected to remain unsettled through the
weekend and into the beginning of next week with overall moisture
continuing to increase. Rain chances will increase some for Fri on
into the weekend and further still for the beginning of next week.
With better chances for generally diurnally driven precip, our
highs should be a tad lower for the extended. While still hot and
humid, heat indices should remain below critical advisory levels.

08

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025

All sites are currently VFR. There is a low chance of some diurnal
convection this afternoon. Will monitor for amendments, but will
forgo mention ATTM as initiation will be hard to pinpoint. Some
MVFR fog will be possible for most toward sunrise and maybe IFR
for the NE (ASN). Otherwise, look for light/variable winds outside
of any isolated convection.

NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until
further notice due to comms issues.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hot conditions are expected this afternoon with RH values mainly
falling into the 40 to 50 percent range. Isolated to scattered
showers and storms are forecast this afternoon and evening with
some storms capable of producing high winds. Moisture and rain
chances will increase for Thursday on through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     71  95  69  91 /  20  30  40  60
Anniston    71  93  70  89 /  20  40  40  60
Birmingham  73  94  71  91 /  20  30  30  50
Tuscaloosa  74  94  72  91 /  20  30  30  50
Calera      73  93  71  90 /  20  30  40  50
Auburn      74  93  70  88 /  30  50  50  60
Montgomery  72  94  70  91 /  20  50  50  60
Troy        71  94  69  90 /  30  50  50  70

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for the following
counties: Bibb-Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-
Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Marion-Pickens-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-
Talladega-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bullock-Chambers-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-
Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Montgomery-Perry-
Pike-Randolph-Russell-Tallapoosa.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...08