847
FXUS64 KBMX 020545
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1245 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1244 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026

- Widespread Rainfall: Showers and storms return to the forecast
  by Friday, with the best chances Sunday through Monday. Rainfall
  amounts will generally be between 1 to 2 inches across the
  southern and central sections of the region, with locally higher
  possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Friday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1117 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026

Moisture continues to gradually stream back into the region under
a stiff south wind, with PWAT values having increased 0.7 inches
in the last 24 hours. This trend will continue into the weekend,
with most of the rain activity remaining diurnally enhanced
through Saturday due to a lack of forcing. During this same time,
the cold front to our north will continue to drop south, briefly
stalling on Saturday as well.

Unfortunately, I think it`s worth passing along tonight that our
QPF amounts through the weekend may be overdone. The bulk of the
rainfall is expected to fall on Sunday, when a shortwave moves in
off the Gulf, allowing for that widespread rainfall due to the
enhanced forcing. Just like I mentioned yesterday, this scenario
entirely depends on where the cold front stalls, and the
orientation that the cold front takes. The last two nights, I
have started to see a trend in the cold front stalling farther to
the north, then quickly pushing through the region into Monday.
Now, we would still see some much needed rainfall if this were to
occur, but total rainfall amounts would likely be closer to half
an inch, with more scattered pockets of 1-2+ inches under heavier
rainfall rates.

Thankfully, confidence in this particular scenario is low, as the
bulk consensus remains the current forecast. However, it`s still
worth passing along given this subtle shift I`ve seen the last
two days, in the event it continues. Otherwise, the cold front is
still expected to push through the region on Monday, with
temperatures falling back to a seasonable feel for most of next
week.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026

Onshore low-level flow will continue to result in increasing
moisture through the period. HREF and LAMP guidance indicate some
potential for MVFR cigs around and after sunrise, but coverage
remains uncertain. Probabilities are just high enough for a TEMPO
mention at AUO, but too low to mention elsewhere. Scattered SHRA
and TSRA are expected to develop with daytime heating Friday
afternoon, with the highest chances near the southern terminals
as a weak disturbance lifts northward from the Gulf. Have
included some PROB30 mentions at all sites. Latest HREF
calibrated thunder probabilities are high enough for these
PROB30s to mention TSRA at MGM and AUO, but are otherwise too low
to mention more than SHRA at the other terminals.

32/JDavis

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions will persist through most of Friday, with isolated
rain chances overnight primarily limited to southern areas. As
southerly flow returns, humidity levels will increase into the
50s and low 60s on Friday. Rain chances increase significantly
Sunday into Monday, with the highest probabilities across
southern and central sections.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     91  67  88  67 /  20  20  60  60
Anniston    90  68  87  68 /  20  20  50  60
Birmingham  91  70  88  69 /  20  20  50  60
Tuscaloosa  94  69  90  68 /  10  20  40  60
Calera      91  69  88  68 /  20  20  50  60
Auburn      87  69  85  68 /  30  20  50  70
Montgomery  90  70  88  70 /  40  20  50  60
Troy        88  68  86  69 /  50  10  50  70

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...32/JDavis