Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
459 FXUS64 KBMX 071113 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 613 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1240 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025 A weak surface low located over Arkansas is helping promote showers across the western third of Central Alabama during the early morning hours. The surface low will be overtaken by a cold front sweeping across the Plains later today as the front works southeastward. Shower activity will gradually affect more of the central and northeastern counties throughout the day, as the front begins approaching from the north. A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon as shower coverage expands. Rain amounts will be limited, however. Highest totals will be across northwestern counties, where rainfall is already ongoing. As the front works south of the area by Wednesday, some CAMs hint at the possibility of redevelopment in southeastern counties by Wednesday afternoon. Have included a 30% rain chance south of the I- 85 corridor, which should end by sunset. 12 && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1240 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025 A slight cooldown is expected toward the end of the week, with 70s to low 80s Thursday and area-wide 70s Friday. Higher terrain areas of east-central Alabama may be in the upper 60s to low 70s both days. Slight rain chances are currently forecast for areas south of I-85 on Thursday. The end of the extended looks dry, and rain chances earlier in the forecast period will do little to halt emerging or worsening drought conditions across different parts of the region. With little relief in sight from a rainfall standpoint, drought and fire danger is likely to continue, if not worsen, through next week. 12 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 609 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025 Patches of MVFR ceilings were impacting terminals at times this morning, along with scattered SHRA development. Ceilings are forecast to mix out to VFR category by 14z, with scattered showers and perhaps a few storms developing by this afternoon. With low chances for showers to move across the terminals, have gone with PROB30s in the forecast as opposed to TEMPO groups at this time. Winds will remain light today, generally 10 knots or less from the southeast. VFR conditions will prevail through most of the rest of the period, with lower ceilings possible once again moving into northern and western Alabama by 12z Wednesday morning. 56/GDG && .FIRE WEATHER... Rain chances are in the forecast today through Wednesday. However, widespread wetting rainfall is not expected. Any rainfall amounts will be too light to mitigate the worsening drought. RH values should remain above 50% each afternoon through Thursday. Winds today will be generally southerly up to 8-10 mph. Outdoor burning remains highly discouraged due to ongoing drought conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 83 65 82 60 / 40 40 20 0 Anniston 83 68 82 61 / 30 30 20 10 Birmingham 85 68 82 62 / 40 40 20 0 Tuscaloosa 86 68 85 60 / 40 30 10 0 Calera 86 68 85 62 / 30 30 20 0 Auburn 85 68 84 65 / 10 20 30 10 Montgomery 87 70 86 66 / 20 20 20 10 Troy 85 68 86 65 / 20 10 30 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...56/GDG